Falcons vs Vikings Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NFL, Week 2

Fans cheer during the Skol chant before an NFL football game between the Minnesota Vikings and Atlanta Falcons, Sunday, Dec. 8, 2024 in Minneapolis. Minnesota won 42-21. (AP Photo/Stacy Bengs)
(AP Photo/Stacy Bengs)
  • The Vikings are -4.5 point favorites vs the Falcons
  • Total (Over/Under): 44.5 points
  • Watch this game on NBC | PEAC | TELE

The Atlanta Falcons (0-1-0) visit U.S. Bank Stadium to take on the Minnesota Vikings (1-0-0) on Sep. 14. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.

The Vikings are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-110).

The Falcons vs. Vikings Over/Under is 44.5 total points for the game.

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Falcons vs. Vikings Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Falcons++4.5 -11044.5 -110185
Vikings -4.5 -11044.5 -110-225

Falcons vs. Vikings Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Vikings will win this game with 69.8% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Falcons vs Vikings Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Falcons will cover the spread with 84.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Falcons players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Falcons Player Prop Bets Today

  • Bijan Robinson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.55 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Kirk Cousins has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.25 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Kirk Cousins has hit the TD Passes Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+6.05 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Tyler Allgeier has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Kirk Cousins has hit the Interceptions Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.45 Units / 37% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Vikings players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Vikings Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Justin Jefferson has hit the Receptions Over in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 72% ROI)
  • Jordan Addison has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 85% ROI)
  • Jordan Addison has hit the Receptions Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.20 Units / 80% ROI)
  • Justin Jefferson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+4.70 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Will Reichard has hit the Field Goals Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.30 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.05 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 away games (+4.60 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.60 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 3Q Spread in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.35 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.75 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 2H Game Total Over in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 90% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 79% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 18 games (+4.35 Units / 21% ROI)

Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons are 0-1 (-1.1 Units / -100% ROI).

  • Falcons are 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
  • Falcons are 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
  • Falcons are 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / ROI

Vikings Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Vikings are 1-2 (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).

  • Vikings are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.25 Units / -26.32% ROI
  • Vikings are 0-3 when betting the Over for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
  • Vikings are 3-0 when betting the Under for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI

Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Minnesota Vikings

The Falcons were undefeated (4-0) when not throwing an interception last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .619.

The Falcons were 3-4 (.429) vs top 10 run defenses last season — 7th-best in NFL; League Avg: .300.

The Falcons were 3-3 (.500) when sacking the QB 3 or more times last season — T-7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .664.

The Falcons were 5-1 (.833) when forcing at least one fumble last season — 5th-best in NFL; League Avg: .621.

Minnesota Vikings: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons

The Vikings were 6-1 (.857) when allowing less than 3 sacks last season — T-8th-best in NFL. The Falcons averaged just 1.8 sacks per game over that time span — 2nd-worst in NFL.

The Vikings were undefeated (10-0) when the opposing team commits 60 yards or more in penalties. last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .560.

The Vikings are winless (0-3) when allowing more than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .421.

The Vikings were 2-1 (.667) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times last season — T-2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .249.

Additional Matchup Notes for Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings threw 35 touchdown passes last season — 5th-most in NFL. The Falcons allowed 34 passing TDs last season — 2nd-most in NFL.

The Vikings had 9 rushing touchdowns last season — 4th-fewest in NFL. The Falcons allowed 11 rushing TDs last season — T-4th-fewest in NFL.

The Vikings averaged 2.1 passing TDs per game last season — 5th-best in NFL. The Falcons allowed 2.0 passing touchdowns per game last season– 2nd-worst in NFL.

Falcons WRs had 183.0 receiving yards per game last season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Vikings averaged 183.2 receiving yards per game allowed to WRs last season — 2nd-worst in NFL.

Falcons WRs had 235 receptions in 17 games (13.8 per game) last season — T-4th-best in NFL. The Vikings allowed 24.4 receptions per game last season — 2nd-worst in NFL.

Falcons WRs had 235 receptions in 17 games (13.8 per game) last season — T-4th-best in NFL. The Vikings allowed 15.0 receptions per game to WRs last season — worst in NFL.

Atlanta Falcons Offense: Important Stats

The Falcons averaged -0.95 epa per play when their QB was scrambling last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.30.

The Falcons ran successful plays on 56% of rush attempts in the 1st half last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Falcons went three and out on 11% of their drives last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 21%.

The Falcons ran successful plays on 61% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Minnesota Vikings Offense: Important Stats

The Vikings ran 21% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 1st half in Week 1 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.

The Vikings ran successful plays on 27% of rush attempts in the red zone last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Vikings have run successful plays on 30% of rush attempts in the red zone since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Vikings ran successful plays on 11% of plays in the 3rd quarter in Week 1 — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

Atlanta Falcons Defense: Important Stats

The Falcons defense allowed 3 TD passes in Week 1 — T-2nd-most in NFL.

The Falcons defense allowed successful plays on 72% of plays with a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Falcons defense allowed 7.6 yards per play with a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 4.2.

The Falcons defense sacked opposing QBs on just 5% of pass attempts (31/609) last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 7%.

Minnesota Vikings Defense: Important Stats

The Vikings defense allowed a passer rating of just 15.7 with a stacked front (17 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 113.4.

The Vikings defense allowed a passer rating of just 76.0 first read passes (314 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 97.5.

The Vikings defense blitzed on 29% of plays last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Vikings defense allowed an average of 40.1 fantasy points per game to WRs last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 33.3.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.