Falcons vs Saints Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 12

BetMGM Betting Nov 19, 2025, 11:56 AM

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A New Orleans Saints helmet sits on the turf prior to an NFL football game against the Carolina Panthers, Monday, Sep. 18, 2023, in Charlotte, N.C. (AP Photo/Brian Westerholt)

(AP Photo/Brian Westerholt)

The Falcons are +1.5 point favorites vs the Saints
Total (Over/Under): 39.5 points
Watch this game on FOX

The Atlanta Falcons (3-7-0) visit Caesars Superdome to take on the New Orleans Saints (2-8-0) on Nov. 23. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EST in New Orleans, LA.

The Falcons are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at +1.5 (-110).

The Falcons vs. Saints Over/Under is 39.5 total points for the game.

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Falcons vs. Saints Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Falcons	+1.5 -110	39.5 -110	105
Saints	-1.5 -110	39.5 -110	-125

Falcons vs. Saints Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Saints will win this game with 55.6% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Falcons vs Saints Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Saints will cover the spread with 53.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Falcons players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Falcons Player Prop Bets Today

Michael Penix Jr. has hit the Carries Under in his last 6 away games (+6.30 Units / 82% ROI)
Michael Penix Jr. has hit the TD Passes Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+4.00 Units / 21% ROI)
Drake London has hit the Longest Reception Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 54% ROI)
Drake London has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+3.75 Units / 20% ROI)
Kyle Pitts has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 10 of his last 16 games (+3.25 Units / 18% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Saints players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Saints Player Prop Best Bets Today

Juwan Johnson has hit the Longest Reception Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.80 Units / 49% ROI)
Brandin Cooks has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+5.45 Units / 31% ROI)
Foster Moreau has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 85% ROI)
Chris Olave has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Chris Olave has hit the Receptions Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 77% ROI)

Falcons Best Bets:

The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 1H Spread in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.00 Units / 14% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 away games (+2.15 Units / 23% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 games (+2.15 Units / 8% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 19 games (+1.90 Units / 8% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 8 away games (+1.85 Units / 19% ROI)

Saints Best Bets:

The New Orleans Saints have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.45 Units / 40% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.20 Units / 17% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.05 Units / 16% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 games at home (+2.00 Units / 24% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have covered the 2H Spread in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.35 Units / 15% ROI)

Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons are 5-5 (-0.5 Units / -4.52% ROI).

Falcons are 3-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.8 Units / -50.32% ROI
Falcons are 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -13.64% ROI
Falcons are 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / ROI

Saints Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Saints are 3-7 (-4.75 Units / -42.99% ROI).

Saints are 2-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.95 Units / -47.83% ROI
Saints are 3-7 when betting the Over for -4.7 Units / -42.73% ROI
Saints are 7-3 when betting the Under for +3.7 Units / 33.64% ROI

Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Saints

The Falcons have a third down conversion rate of 17% since Week 8 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

The Falcons have converted first downs on 15 of 24 plays (62%) in the red zone since Week 8 — best in NFL; League Avg: 31%.

The Falcons have gone three and out on 7% of their drives in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 18%.

The Falcons have thrown the ball 12% of the time (5 Pass Attempts/40 plays) on plays under center this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 28%.

New Orleans Saints: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons

The Saints defense has allowed successful plays on 57% of pass attempts in the 1st half this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Saints defense has allowed successful plays on 31% of pass attempts in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Saints defense has allowed successful plays on 33% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Saints defense has allowed successful plays on 64% of pass attempts in the 1st quarter this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

Additional Matchup Notes for Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints