Falcons vs Patriots Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 9

BetMGM Betting Oct 28, 2025, 9:20 PM

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A general view of Gillette Stadium during the second half an NFL football game between the New England Patriots and the Washington Commanders on Sunday, Nov. 5, 2023, in Foxborough, Mass. (AP Photo/Greg M. Cooper)

(AP Photo/Greg M. Cooper)

The Patriots are -5.5 point favorites vs the Falcons
Total (Over/Under): 45 points
Watch this game on CBS

The Atlanta Falcons (3-4-0) visit Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots (6-2-0) on Nov. 2. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Foxborough, MA.

The Patriots are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).

The Falcons vs. Patriots Over/Under is 45 total points for the game.

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Falcons vs. Patriots Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Falcons	+5.5 -110	45 -110	200
Patriots	-5.5 -110	45 -110	-250

Falcons vs. Patriots Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Patriots will win this game with 68.9% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Falcons vs Patriots Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Falcons will cover the spread with 57.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Falcons players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Falcons Player Prop Bets Today

Kirk Cousins has hit the TD Passes Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.05 Units / 60% ROI)
Bijan Robinson has hit the Longest Reception Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 58% ROI)
Michael Penix Jr. has hit the TD Passes Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.00 Units / 28% ROI)
Kyle Pitts has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 8 away games (+3.65 Units / 37% ROI)
Drake London has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 8 away games (+3.60 Units / 36% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Patriots Player Prop Best Bets Today

Mack Hollins has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.38 Units / 47% ROI)
Austin Hooper has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+8.30 Units / 53% ROI)
Mack Hollins has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.35 Units / 40% ROI)
TreVeyon Henderson has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 88% ROI)
Kayshon Boutte has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 85% ROI)

Falcons Best Bets:

The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.40 Units / 29% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 away games (+4.15 Units / 48% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 16 games (+2.20 Units / 9% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 away games (+1.60 Units / 16% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 3Q Spread in 5 of their last 8 away games (+1.20 Units / 12% ROI)

Patriots Best Bets:

The New England Patriots have hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+10.90 Units / 44% ROI)
The New England Patriots have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.30 Units / 31% ROI)
The New England Patriots have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)
The New England Patriots have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.80 Units / 49% ROI)
The New England Patriots have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.40 Units / 21% ROI)

Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons are 3-4 (-1.4 Units / -18.06% ROI).

Falcons are 3-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.65 Units / -32.16% ROI
Falcons are 1-5 when betting the Over for -4.5 Units / -58.44% ROI
Falcons are 5-1 when betting the Under for +3.9 Units / ROI

Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots are 6-2 (+3.8 Units / 43.43% ROI).

Patriots are 6-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.15 Units / 41.14% ROI
Patriots are 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI
Patriots are 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI

Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots

The Patriots ran successful plays on 100% of pass attempts in the 2nd half in Week 8 — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Patriots have run successful plays on 50% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured since Week 5 — best in NFL; League Avg: 27%.

The Patriots have gone three and out 7 times in the 3rd quarter this season — T-most in NFL.

The Patriots have run successful plays on 63% of pass attempts on first read passes this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 53%.

New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons have averaged -0.36 epa per play on play action passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.09.

The Falcons have not converted a first down on 10 plays (0%) when their QB has scrambled this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 21%.

The Falcons have been flagged 4 times for 10+ yards on offense this season — 2nd-fewest in NFL.

The Falcons have thrown the ball 7% of the time (2 Pass Attempts/27 plays) on plays under center this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 28%.

Additional Matchup Notes for Atlanta Falcons vs. New England Patriots