Falcons vs Panthers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NFL, Week 3

Fans stand for the national anthem before an NFL football game between the Carolina Panthers and the New Orleans Saints Monday, Sept. 18, 2023, in Charlotte, N.C. (AP Photo/Rusty Jones)
(AP Photo/Rusty Jones)
  • The Falcons are -5.5 point favorites vs the Panthers
  • Total (Over/Under): 43.5 points
  • Watch this game on FOX

The Atlanta Falcons (1-1-0) visit Bank of America Stadium to take on the Carolina Panthers (0-2-0) on Sep. 21. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Charlotte, NC.

The Falcons are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).

The Falcons vs. Panthers Over/Under is 43.5 total points for the game.

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Falcons vs. Panthers Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Falcons-5.5 -11043.5 -110-250
Panthers +5.5 -11043.5 -110200

Falcons vs. Panthers Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Falcons will win this game with 79.7% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Falcons vs Panthers Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Falcons will cover the spread with 79.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Falcons players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Falcons Player Prop Bets Today

  • Bijan Robinson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.15 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Tyler Allgeier has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Tyler Allgeier has hit the Carries Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+4.90 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Ray-Ray McCloud has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 8 away games (+4.05 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Tyler Allgeier has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 56% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Panthers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Panthers Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Bryce Young has hit the TD Passes Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+8.35 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Rico Dowdle has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.25 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Rico Dowdle has hit the Carries Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.15 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Chuba Hubbard has hit the Carries Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.05 Units / 23% ROI)
  • David Moore has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.85 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.50 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 away games (+4.35 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.05 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.75 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 1H Spread in 12 of their last 19 games (+3.65 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Carolina Panthers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 17 games (+10.80 Units / 57% ROI)
  • The Carolina Panthers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+9.55 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Carolina Panthers have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.40 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Carolina Panthers have hit the 2H Game Total Over in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 90% ROI)
  • The Carolina Panthers have hit the 1H Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.95 Units / 45% ROI)

Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons are 1-1 (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).

  • Falcons are 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.35 Units / 16.67% ROI
  • Falcons are 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
  • Falcons are 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / ROI

Panthers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Panthers are 1-1 (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).

  • Panthers are 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -100% ROI
  • Panthers are 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Panthers are 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI

Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Carolina Panthers

The Falcons were undefeated (4-0) when not throwing an interception last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .619.

The Falcons were 5-1 (.833) when forcing at least one fumble last season — 5th-best in NFL; League Avg: .621.

The Falcons were 6-2 (.750) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season — 10th-best in NFL; League Avg: .624.

The Falcons are undefeated (8-0) when leading at the end of the third quarter since the 2024 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .846.

Carolina Panthers: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons

The Panthers were winless (0-6) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .401.

The Panthers are undefeated (3-0) when within 3 points at the two minute warning since the 2024 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Panthers were winless (0-10) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .152.

The Panthers were winless (0-5) vs top 10 run defenses last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .300.

Additional Matchup Notes for Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers

The Panthers have been successful on just 27.7% of plays they have run with motion this season — worst in NFL. The Falcons have allowed a success rate of just 37.0% against motion this season — 5th-best in NFL.

The Panthers have scored on 30% of their drives this season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Falcons defense has allowed scores on 30% of opponent drives this season — T-3rd-best in NFL.

The Panthers were successful on just 18.8% of plays they ran with motion last week — worst in NFL. The Falcons allowed a success rate of just 33.3% against motion last week — T-3rd-best in NFL.

The Falcons have been successful on 49.1% of rush attempts with motion since the 2024 season — T-3rd-best in NFL. The Panthers have allowed a success rate of 53.6% on rush attempts against motion since the 2024 season — worst in NFL.

The Falcons have been successful on 50.3% of rush attempts since the 2024 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Panthers have allowed a success rate of 52.7% on rush attempts since the 2024 season — worst in NFL.

The Falcons have been successful on 72.7% of rush attempts on play action passes since the 2024 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Panthers have allowed a success rate of 70.6% on rush attempts on play action passes since the 2024 season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

Atlanta Falcons Offense: Important Stats

The Falcons have averaged 15.0 yards per play on first drive of the game this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.9.

The Falcons averaged -0.95 epa per play when their QB was scrambling last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.30.

The Falcons went three and out on 11% of their drives last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 21%.

The Falcons ran successful plays on 61% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Carolina Panthers Offense: Important Stats

The Panthers have averaged -0.31 epa per play in the 1st half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.05.

The Panthers have run successful plays on 28% of plays on motion plays this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Panthers have run successful plays on 23% of pass attempts on motion plays this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Panthers went three and out 19 times in the 2nd quarter last season — most in NFL.

Atlanta Falcons Defense: Important Stats

The Falcons defense has allowed successful plays on 34% of plays first read passes this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 52%.

The Falcons defense sacked opposing QBs on 22% of pass attempts (6/27) in Week 2 — best in NFL; League Avg: 7%.

Only 34% of the plays run against the Falcons have been in their own territory this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The Falcons defense hit opposing QBs on 43% of pass attempts in Week 2 — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

Carolina Panthers Defense: Important Stats

The Panthers defense allowed 0.62 epa per play open coverage last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.42.

The Panthers defense has allowed 177.3 rushing yards per game (3,368/19) since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 119.7.

The Panthers defense allowed successful plays on 59% of rush attempts in the 1st half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Panthers defense allowed 182.2 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 126.8.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.