Falcons vs Jets Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 13

BetMGM Betting Nov 30, 2025, 9:56 AM

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Fans arrive at MetLife Stadium before an NFL football game between the New York Jets and the Buffalo Bills Sunday, Sept. 8, 2019, in East Rutherford, N.J.

(AP Photo/Seth Wenig)

The Falcons are -2.5 point favorites vs the Jets
Total (Over/Under): 39.5 points
Watch this game on FOX

The Atlanta Falcons (4-7-0) visit MetLife Stadium to take on the New York Jets (2-9-0) on Nov. 30. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in East Rutherford, NJ.

The Falcons are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).

The Falcons vs. Jets Over/Under is 39.5 total points for the game.

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Falcons vs. Jets Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Falcons	-2.5 -110	39.5 -110	-140
Jets	+2.5 -110	39.5 -110	118

Falcons vs. Jets Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Falcons will win this game with 56.3% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Falcons vs Jets Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Jets will cover the spread with 54.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Falcons players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Jets Player Prop Bets Today

Mason Taylor has hit the Longest Reception Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.90 Units / 71% ROI)
Mason Taylor has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.80 Units / 54% ROI)
Nick Folk has hit the Field Goals Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+6.25 Units / 41% ROI)
Isaiah Davis has hit the Carries Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.20 Units / 60% ROI)
Adonai Mitchell has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+3.90 Units / 31% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Jets players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Falcons Player Prop Best Bets Today

Kyle Pitts has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 17 games (+4.25 Units / 22% ROI)
Kyle Pitts has hit the Longest Reception Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.85 Units / 56% ROI)
Drake London has hit the Longest Reception Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 54% ROI)
Drake London has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+3.75 Units / 20% ROI)
Darnell Mooney has hit the Receptions Under in 9 of his last 14 games (+3.60 Units / 21% ROI)

Jets Best Bets:

The New York Jets have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.40 Units / 34% ROI)
The New York Jets have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+7.15 Units / 70% ROI)
The New York Jets have covered the 2H Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.47 Units / 32% ROI)
The New York Jets have hit the 2H Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+5.32 Units / 30% ROI)
The New York Jets have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.30 Units / 22% ROI)

Falcons Best Bets:

The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 1H Spread in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.00 Units / 18% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 9 away games (+3.20 Units / 30% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+3.15 Units / 11% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+2.90 Units / 12% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.70 Units / 27% ROI)

Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons are 6-5 (+0.5 Units / 4.12% ROI).

Falcons are 4-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.8 Units / -41.21% ROI
Falcons are 4-6 when betting the Over for -2.6 Units / -21.49% ROI
Falcons are 6-4 when betting the Under for +1.6 Units / ROI

Jets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Jets are 6-5 (+0.65 Units / 5.44% ROI).

Jets are 2-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.1 Units / -53.74% ROI
Jets are 6-5 when betting the Over for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI
Jets are 5-6 when betting the Under for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI

Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the New York Jets

32% of the plays ran against the Jets were in the red zone in Week 12 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

The Jets have been flagged 0 times on Defense in the red zone this season — fewest in NFL.

The Jets defense do not have an interception in 11 games this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.7.

The Jets defense has averaged a turnover percentage of just 0% (3 / 679) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 2%.

New York Jets: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons

The Jets have run successful plays on 18% of plays on first read passes since Week 9 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 51%.

The Jets have averaged -0.58 epa per play on first read passes since Week 9 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.18.

The Jets have run successful plays on 21% of pass attempts on first read passes since Week 9 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 51%.

The Jets have started 20 drives inside their own 20 yard line this season — fewest in NFL.

Additional Matchup Notes for Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Jets