Falcons vs Colts Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 10

BetMGM Betting Nov 07, 2025, 10:52 AM

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A general overall interior view of Lucas Oil Stadium as Chicago Bears take on the Indianapolis Colts during an NFL football game, Sunday, Sept. 22, 2024, in Indianapolis. The Colts defeated the Bears 21-16. (AP Photo/Zach Bolinger)

(AP Photo/Zach Bolinger)

The Colts are -6.5 point favorites vs the Falcons
Total (Over/Under): 48.5 points
Watch this game on NFLN | NFL+

The Atlanta Falcons (3-5-0) visit Olympic Stadium to take on the Indianapolis Colts (7-2-0) on Nov. 9. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:30am EST in Berlin, Germany.

The Colts are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-110).

The Falcons vs. Colts Over/Under is 48.5 total points for the game.

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Falcons vs. Colts Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Falcons	+6.5 -110	48.5 -110	240
Colts	-6.5 -110	48.5 -110	-295

Falcons vs. Colts Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Colts will win this game with 70.1% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Falcons vs Colts Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Falcons will cover the spread with 57.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Falcons players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Falcons Player Prop Bets Today

Michael Penix Jr. has hit the Carries Under in his last 5 away games (+5.30 Units / 80% ROI)
Tyler Allgeier has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 81% ROI)
Bijan Robinson has hit the Longest Reception Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.70 Units / 39% ROI)
Zane Gonzalez has hit the Field Goals Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.35 Units / 33% ROI)
Michael Penix Jr. has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 4 of his last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 51% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Colts players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Colts Player Prop Best Bets Today

Alec Pierce has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.75 Units / 60% ROI)
Michael Pittman has hit the Receptions Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.15 Units / 44% ROI)
Alec Pierce has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 86% ROI)
Daniel Jones has hit the Completions Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.90 Units / 53% ROI)
Daniel Jones has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.70 Units / 50% ROI)

Falcons Best Bets:

The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.40 Units / 29% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 6 of their last 9 away games (+3.15 Units / 33% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 16 games (+1.20 Units / 5% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 1Q Spread in 10 of their last 18 games (+1.00 Units / 4% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 16 games (+0.95 Units / 5% ROI)

Colts Best Bets:

The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1H Team Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games (+10.20 Units / 41% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.55 Units / 43% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.50 Units / 39% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.70 Units / 40% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+4.85 Units / 20% ROI)

Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons are 4-4 (-0.4 Units / -4.52% ROI).

Falcons are 3-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.65 Units / -37.65% ROI
Falcons are 2-5 when betting the Over for -3.5 Units / -39.77% ROI
Falcons are 5-2 when betting the Under for +2.8 Units / ROI

Colts Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Colts are 6-3 (+2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI).

Colts are 7-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.6 Units / 16.49% ROI
Colts are 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI
Colts are 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI

Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Indianapolis Colts

The Colts defense has forced 4 turnovers in the red zone this season — most in NFL.

The Colts defense allowed successful plays on 10% of plays in the 1st quarter in Week 9 — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Colts defense did not allow a reception for 20+ yards in Week 9 — fewest in NFL.

The Colts defense has allowed a passer rating of just 49.1 on 3rd and long (40 Pass Attempts) this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 81.5.

Indianapolis Colts: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons have thrown the ball 10% of the time (3 Pass Attempts/29 plays) on plays under center this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 27%.

The Falcons have run successful plays on 19% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 28%.

The Falcons averaged -0.95 epa per play when their QB was scrambling last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.30.

The Falcons had a third down conversion rate of 10% in Week 9 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

Additional Matchup Notes for Atlanta Falcons vs. Indianapolis Colts