Falcons vs Buccaneers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 15

BetMGM Betting Dec 10, 2025, 12:13 PM

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FILE - a general view of Raymond James Stadium during an NFL football game between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday, Sept. 29, 2024, in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Doug Murray, FIle)

(AP Photo/Doug Murray)

The Buccaneers are -4.5 point favorites vs the Falcons
Total (Over/Under): 44.5 points
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The Atlanta Falcons (4-9-0) visit Raymond James Stadium to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6-0) on Dec. 11. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EST in Tampa, FL.

The Buccaneers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-110).

The Falcons vs. Buccaneers Over/Under is 44.5 total points for the game.

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Falcons vs. Buccaneers Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Falcons	+4.5 -110	44.5 -115	185
Buccaneers	-4.5 -110	44.5 -105	-225

Falcons vs. Buccaneers Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Buccaneers will win this game with 67.4% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Falcons vs Buccaneers Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Falcons will cover the spread with 54.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Falcons players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Falcons Player Prop Bets Today

Darnell Mooney has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+6.15 Units / 38% ROI)
Kyle Pitts has hit the Longest Reception Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 64% ROI)
Drake London has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.45 Units / 29% ROI)
David Sills has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 58% ROI)
David Sills has hit the Longest Reception Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.85 Units / 54% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Buccaneers Player Prop Best Bets Today

Rachaad White has hit the Carries Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.70 Units / 34% ROI)
Sterling Shepard has hit the Longest Reception Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.75 Units / 50% ROI)
Sterling Shepard has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.35 Units / 29% ROI)
Tez Johnson has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 90% ROI)
Bucky Irving has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 84% ROI)

Falcons Best Bets:

The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 1H Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.20 Units / 28% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+5.30 Units / 18% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+2.80 Units / 12% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 3Q Spread in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.65 Units / 23% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.35 Units / 22% ROI)

Buccaneers Best Bets:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+8.00 Units / 37% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.80 Units / 56% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 3Q Spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.10 Units / 30% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.05 Units / 24% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 games (+4.95 Units / 19% ROI)

Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons are 6-7 (-1.7 Units / -11.85% ROI).

Falcons are 4-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.4 Units / -49.21% ROI
Falcons are 6-6 when betting the Over for -0.6 Units / -4.2% ROI
Falcons are 6-6 when betting the Under for -0.6 Units / ROI

Buccaneers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Buccaneers are 5-8 (-3.9 Units / -27.27% ROI).

Buccaneers are 7-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.4 Units / -6.51% ROI
Buccaneers are 7-6 when betting the Over for +0.4 Units / 2.8% ROI
Buccaneers are 6-7 when betting the Under for -1.7 Units / -11.89% ROI

Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers defense have allowed 12.5 yards per play open coverage since Week 11 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 8.8.

The Buccaneers defense did not allow a reception for 20+ yards in Week 14 — T-fewest in NFL.

The Buccaneers defense have allowed just 1.5 yards per play with tight coverage this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 3.0.

The Buccaneers defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 100% open coverage since Week 11 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons

The Buccaneers have run 6% of their plays in the red zone in the 1st quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 13%.

The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 41% of pass attempts on first read passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 52%.

The Buccaneers have averaged -0.73 epa per play on contested throws this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.08.

The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 41% of plays on first read passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 52%.

Additional Matchup Notes for Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers