NFL Expert Picks Week 5: Commanders a Target in LA

Below, bettors can find my NFL betting predictions for Week 5 based on NFL odds at BetMGM. 

The slate begins on Thursday with Rams vs 49ers. Both teams sit at 3-1 entering the matchup, with Los Angeles seeking a third straight win over San Francisco. 

Other standalone games include Browns vs Vikings in London, Bills vs Patriots on SNF and Jaguars vs Chiefs on MNF. 

Let’s dive into the selections. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

NFL Expert Picks Today: Week 5 Predictions

Chargers vs Commanders Prediction: Commanders Spread (+2.5, -105)

Based on potential Chargers injury news and Jayden Daniels’ return to the Washington offense, my Chargers vs Commanders prediction is the Commanders Spread (+2.5, -105). 

Joe Alt left Sunday’s game against the Giants with an ankle injury. That further decimates an already banged-up Chargers offensive line. 

If Alt and Mekhi Becton miss Sunday’s game, the Chargers’ offensive prowess likely shrinks. 

Conversely, Washington’s offense looked decent in Atlanta. Without arguably its two best players, the Commanders put up 27 points against a good Falcons defense. 

Daniels’ return also provides a matchup advantage for the Commanders offense. 

Excluding Week 4, the Commanders ranked third in rush offense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. The Chargers sit 16th in the corresponding defensive category. 

Jim Harbaugh’s team allowed 161 rushing yards to the Giants in Week 4 on 3.8 yards per attempt. Dart himself rushed 10 times for 54 yards. 

Now, the Chargers play a team with a highly mobile quarterback. If they can’t contain Daniels, it likely inhibits the Chargers’ ability to cover the spread. 

Per Evan Abrams of The Action Network, Herbert owns an 11-25 ATS record when his defense allows 24 or more points. 

If Los Angeles can’t stay on the field offensively, it repeatedly puts Washington’s strength on display. 

Pair those trends with the injury news favoring Washington, and I predict the Commanders stay within this number. 

Bills vs Patriots Prediction: Total Under 50 Points (-110)

Based on the Bills’ recent defensive improvements and the Patriots’ inexperience against good defenses, my Bills vs Patriots prediction is the Total Under 50 Points (-110). 

The concern here is whether New England’s defense can limit a powerful Buffalo offense. 

Buffalo leads the league in offensive DVOA. However, it has come against the easiest set of opposing defenses, according to ftnfantasy.com. 

New England hasn’t looked good defensively. Despite playing a really easy schedule, the team ranks 28th in defensive DVOA. 

Christian Gonzalez’s return undoubtedly helps the defense. Last week, New England ranked seventh in defensive EPA per play on plays excluding turnovers. 

But it’s not as if they faced the greatest show on turf. In fact, Carolina’s offense regularly features as one of the NFL’s worst under Bryce Young. 

The matchup that gives me confidence? Buffalo’s defense against New England’s offense. 

I came away shocked to learn the Patriots sit 11th in offensive DVOA through four weeks. However, the record has come against the fourth-easiest set of defenses. 

Buffalo has turned the defense around since Week 1 against Baltimore. Over the last three weeks, Buffalo ranks fifth and sixth in EPA per play and success rate, respectively. 

In those three games, the Patriots rank second in dropback success rate. 

That should help against New England. Entering SNF, Josh McDaniels’ offense sits eighth in pass offense DVOA compared to 23rd via the run. 

If only one team is contributing to the total, this number suddenly becomes very high. Additionally, high primetime totals generally finish under the total. 

Since 2004, SNF or MNF games with a total between 49 and 52 and a home favorite are 43-23-1 to the under. 

When the total falls between 49 and 50: 25-8-1 to the under.

Bengals vs Lions Prediction: Lions Over 29.5 Points (-140)

Based on Cincinnati’s struggles against bad offenses this season and Detroit’s offensive strength, my Bengals vs Lions prediction is the Lions Over 29.5 Points (-140). 

I question how the Bengals defense holds up against Detroit’s powerful offense. 

Detroit ranks fourth in offensive DVOA, having faced the 11th-hardest set of defenses, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Meanwhile, the Bengals have faced the easiest set of offenses. They rank 27th in defensive DVOA. 

While the Bengals kept three of four opponents under this number, Detroit easily qualifies as the hardest opponent. 

In Week 2 against Jacksonville, the Bengals allowed 27 points at home. However, Jacksonville failed to score three times from inside the red zone. 

Detroit has cleared this number in three straight games….by margin. Against the Bears, Ravens and Browns, Detroit averaged 41.3 points per game. 

Since last season, the Lions have cleared 29.5 points 14 times in 22 games, a 63.6% hit rate. Comparatively, these odds imply a probability of 58.3%. 

That’s all without mentioning the rest advantage for Detroit. Dan Campbell’s team played on Sunday, while Cincinnati has to travel after a road MNF game. 

Detroit doesn’t need that advantage, but it should help a powerful Lions offense. 

Finally, Cincinnati played three games last year against top-five offensive DVOA sides. All three scored at least 35 points against the defense.

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Consensus Picks

Check back later in the week for NFL public betting data on all Week 5 games for both bets placed and money wagered percentages. 

Additionally, betting splits for the Super Bowl odds at BetMGM.