NFL Expert Picks Week 4: NFC North in Focus

Below, bettors can find my NFL betting predictions for Week 4 based on NFL odds at BetMGM. 

The slate begins on Thursday with Cardinals vs Seahawks on TNF. Both teams sit at 2-1 entering the matchup, with Seattle seeking an eighth straight win over Arizona. 

Sunday’s slate features a couple prime standalone games. Ravens vs Chiefs is a rematch of the 2023 AFC Championship, while Cowboys vs Packers sees Micah Parsons return to Dallas. 

Let’s dive into the selections. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

NFL Week 4 Predictions

Cowboys vs Packers Prediction: Packers Spread (-6.5, -110)

Based on the Packers’ strong defensive record and the injury concerns for Dallas, my Cowboys vs Packers prediction is the Packers Spread (-6.5, -110). 

Albeit against a bad Browns defense, I remain confident that Green Bay holds one of the best defenses in the league. 

Off a loss, they get a Cowboys team with its starting center on IR. Of greater concern for Dallas is the fact that CeeDee Lamb exited Sunday’s game at Chicago with an ankle injury. 

Plus, the Packers showed defensive prowess against both the Commanders and Lions. An argument can be made that both offenses – at full strength – outpace Dallas in quality. 

If the Cowboys offense fails to score, I worry about their viability as underdogs. For Dallas to cover, it likely means the game proves lower-scoring compared to earlier contests. 

If history against Green Bay is any indicator, that’s unlikely to happen. 

Green Bay played in Dallas two years ago in the wild-card round. Against a Cowboys defense WITH Micah Parsons, the Packers put up 48 points. 

Dallas just surrendered 37 points to the Giants at home and proved lucky to win that game. Then, the defense struggled once again at Chicago, which looked anemic up until that point. 

Exclusive of Green Bay’s Week 3 performance, the Packers ranked first in offensive DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Off a fluky loss, I like the Packers to get right and cover the spread against the Cowboys. 

Steelers vs Vikings Prediction: Vikings Moneyline (-150)

Based on the Steelers’ defensive injuries and the team’s fluky win in Week 3, my Steelers vs Vikings prediction is the Minnesota Vikings Moneyline (-150). 

Both teams arrive in Dublin off wins. The question then becomes which side occupies the sell spot following those victories. 

Upon close examination of their games, Pittsburgh becomes the answer for bettors. 

Minnesota produced the bigger edge, but still bested the Bengals 6.1-3.3 on yards per play. Pittsburgh lost 5.2-4.1 in New England and won solely because of turnovers. 

The Steelers defense turned over New England not once but TWICE in their own end zone. Additionally, Pittsburgh recovered all four fumbles in the game. 

That usually proves inconsistent week to week. If the Minnesota offense can avoid turnovers, it sets the team up well to exploit a sneaky bad Steelers defense. 

Through three games, Pittsburgh ranks 24th in defensive DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. 

The team also ranks 28th in defensive success rate and 31st in defensive EPA per play on plays excluding turnovers, per rbsdm.com. 

The Vikings also return Jordan Addison to the lineup on Sunday. That could further boost the offense against an injury-plagued Steelers secondary. 

Both Joey Porter Jr. and DeShon Elliott could miss Sunday’s game. Those absences could present a problem against Addison and Justin Jefferson. 

Finally, I worry about Pittsburgh’s offensive line in this game. Through three weeks, Pittsburgh ranks 31st in pass-block win rate, per ESPN. 

Against a blitz-heavy Brian Flores defense, I expect a difficult outing for Aaron Rodgers. As a result, I like the Vikings to capture a second straight win.

Giants vs Chargers Prediction: Giants 1H Under 9.5 Points (-115)

Based on New York’s lack of early success against good defenses and the Chargers’ strong starts to games, my Giants vs Chargers prediction is the Giants 1H Team Total Under 9.5 Points (-115). 

A change to Jaxson Dart at quarterback isn’t going to solve New York’s offensive issues overnight. Plus, Dart faces a Chargers defense that has excelled early since last season. 

New York scored three first-half points against the Commanders in Week 1. On Sunday against the Chiefs, the Giants managed only six first-half points. 

Sunday’s game against Los Angeles presents the biggest challenge for the offense. Los Angeles ranks seventh in defensive DVOA and fifth in pass defense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. 

That qualifies as an issue for the Giants, who rank sixth in pass play percentage through three games. 

Plus, the Chargers’ defense has kept better offensive opposition under this total. 

The Chiefs (6), Raiders (6) and Broncos (7) have all stayed under this number against Jesse Minter’s defense. 

Plus, the Chargers defense allowed only eight first-half points per game across all of last season. That mark qualified as the best in the league. 

Over Los Angeles’ last 22 games, only six teams have cleared this number. Half of those opponents finished last season seventh or better in offensive DVOA. 

As a result, I like the Giants to stay under their first-half team total against a powerful Chargers defense. 

Broncos vs Bengals Prediction: Bengals Under 17.5 Points (-120)

Based on the Bengals’ offensive struggles behind Browning and Denver’s defensive matchup advantages, my Broncos vs Bengals prediction is the Bengals Team Total Under 17.5 Points (-120). 

Most of this prediction centers around the team total oddsmakers list for Cincinnati. Some quick math suggests it opens around 17.5 or 18 points for the visitors. 

Even if one includes the Joe Burrow starts, the Bengals offense has looked anemic through three weeks. Per ftnfantasy.com, the Bengals rank 31st in offensive DVOA. 

The schedule gets no easier in Week 4. Zac Taylor takes his team to face a Broncos defense that ranks 14th in defensive DVOA. 

It’s also a potential buy-low spot on Denver following two shaky defensive performances. 

Cincinnati dropped 30 on Denver at home last year. However, it came with Burrow starting. 

An argument exists it could have been more, as Cincinnati failed to score from the Broncos two-yard line early. However, the positive regression likely fails to arrive with Browning. 

Denver owns a massive edge over the Cincinnati offensive line. Through three games, the Broncos rank second in pass-rush win rate, per ESPN. Conversely, Cincinnati ranks 27th in the corresponding offensive category. 

Vance Joseph’s defense also possesses a corner group that can keep up with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.

Lastly, Browning has started only four career road games in his short career. In three of those games, Cincinnati finished under 17.5 points.  

Meanwhile, Denver has consistently held teams under this number at home. Since the beginning of last year, only the Raiders, Chargers and Browns (?) cleared this in Denver. 

NFL Week 4 Picks: Public Consensus

As of Friday, September 26, six teams have received at least 70% of bets to cover the spread:

• Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5): 84% of bets placed to cover the spread
• Green Bay Packers (-7): 84% of bets placed to cover the spread
• Washington Commanders (-1): 80% of bets placed to cover the spread
• Minnesota Vikings (-2.5): 71% of bets placed to cover the spread
• Baltimore Ravens (-2.5): 71% of bets placed to cover the spread
• Detroit Lions (-10): 70% of bets placed to cover the spread

Get NFL public betting data for all Week 4 games for both bets placed and money wagered percentages. Additionally, betting splits for the Super Bowl odds at BetMGM.