NFL Expert Picks Week 3: Saints & Texans Earn First Look

Below, bettors can find my NFL betting predictions for Week 3 based on NFL odds at BetMGM. 

The slate begins on Thursday with Bills vs Dolphins. For Buffalo, the game offers a chance to start 3-0 SU & ATS as 12.5-point home favorites against the lowly Dolphins. 

Other standalone games include Giants vs Chiefs and Ravens vs Lions. Other notable contests include Eagles vs Rams, Chargers vs Broncos and 49ers vs Cardinals. 

Let’s dive into the selections. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

NFL Week 3 Predictions

Buccaneers vs Jets Prediction: Jets Spread (+7, -110)

Based on the rest advantage for the Jets and Baker Mayfield’s weak ATS record as a favorite, my Buccaneers vs Jets prediction is the Jets Spread (+7, -110). 

The time has come to buy low on the Jets after a blowout loss against the Bills, a clear Super Bowl contender. Is that enough to warrant New York sitting on a key number? I say no. 

Through two weeks, I’ve left impressed with the Jets offense. Justin Fields provides a rushing threat on a team that possesses decent skill players. 

Against the Steelers and Bills, New York combined to average 4.75 yards per rush attempt. If that success continues, it gives a chance to keep Tampa Bay’s offense off the field. 

Plus, the Bucs have to play on short rest following a road MNF game. If this line gets to Jets +6.5, it triggers a historically profitable betting system. 

Since 2003, home favorites between -6.5 and -2.5 in games 3-15 are 17-52-2 ATS, assuming the dog has a +1 day rest advantage. 

Between -6.5 and -5.5: 1-12 ATS. 

Plus, Mayfield has struggled as a decent-sized favorite in his career. As a market favorite between -7 and -3, Mayfield owns a 9-15-1 ATS record. 

One final trend to consider: 0-2 underdogs in Week 3 riding a two-game losing streak are 49-33-2 ATS at +7 or shorter, including 20-12 between +5.5 and +7. 

Given those factors, I like the Jets to cover the number in Florida. 

Eagles vs Rams Prediction: Rams Spread (+3.5, -110)

Based on Sean McVay’s record as a market underdog and the Rams’ matchup advantage on offense, my Eagles vs Rams prediction is the Rams Spread (+3.5, -105). 

Part of me wants to see if this line gets to +4 or +4.5. However, it’s the Rams or nothing from an ATS standpoint. 

If Philadelphia’s Week 1 result against the Cowboys is any indicator, Los Angeles should feast on offense. 

The Eagles defense features a glaring weakness. Whoever plays opposite Quinyon Mitchell at CB2 presents a liability for the defense. 

Bettors saw that on full display as the Cowboys moved the ball efficiently. For the Eagles defense, I worry about a matchup against a Puka Nacua-Davante Adams tandem. 

As recent as last January, the Rams offense excelled through the air. The Rams passed for 291 yards and outgained Philadelphia 402-350. 

A pair of long touchdowns gave Philly the edge. Jalen Hurts rushed for a 44-yard touchdown to open the game, with Saquon Barkley providing a 65-yard score. 

Through two games, I’ve left generally unimpressed with the Philadelphia offense. Granted, Los Angeles has yet to face a true offensive test. 

That said, McVay has previously excelled as a market underdog. He’s 23-19-2 ATS in such spots, including 4-2 with Mathew Stafford at +4 or higher. 

Accordingly, I like the Rams to cover the spread on Sunday. However, I wouldn’t mind waiting to see if a better number pops later in the week. 

Seahawks vs Saints Prediction: Saints Spread (+7.5, -110)

Based on the previous ATS success of teams like New Orleans and the Saints’ defensive matchup advantage, my Seahawks vs Saints prediction is the Saints Spread (+7.5, -110). 

Much like my Cardinals vs Panthers prediction last week, I’ll exercise some bravery and predict the Seahawks to stay within the number. 

I’m operating under the assumption that a bunch of moneyline parlays and teasers will include Seattle. As of Monday afternoon, Seattle has amassed 96% of moneyline bets. 

But I’ve left the first two games relatively impressed with Spencer Rattler. Against Arizona and San Francisco, he stayed within this number both times and has yet to throw an interception. 

Against San Francisco: 307 yards and three touchdown passes with a 118.1 rating. 

Can he replicate it against an outstanding Seattle defense? Only time will tell. 

Simultaneously, New Orleans ranks 15th in rush defense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Against a Klint Kubiak scheme that prefers a ground-first approach, New Orleans matches up well defensively. 

Just by total DVOA, Seattle sits 18th while New Orleans ranks 22nd. Given that close gap, I question how this spread sits above a key number. 

History also likes the Saints to stay within this number on Sunday. 

Since 2005, Week 3 underdogs at 0-2 ATS are 63-45-1 (58.3%). When those dogs sit between +6.5 and +7.5: 11-4 ATS. 

Plus, bettors tend to underestimate dogs off a bad season. 

Since ‘04, road dogs between +6 and +9 that won between 3-6 games the prior year are 82-30 ATS (73.2%), assuming the total closes between 40 and 43.5. 

When the total closes between 40 and 41.5 – the total currently sits at 41.5 – those dogs improve to 41-10 ATS. 

As a result, I like the Saints to stay within a big number and cover their first spread of the season. 

Bears vs Cowboys Prediction: Cowboys Moneyline (-105)

Based on Jaylon Johnson’s injury for the Bears and the Cowboys’ passing success to begin the season, my Bears vs Cowboys prediction is the Cowboys Moneyline (-105). 

I question how the Bears limit Dallas’ offense without their All-Pro cornerback. 

Through two games, the Cowboys sit fifth in offensive DVOA while Chicago ranks 32nd in the corresponding defensive category, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Some of Chicago’s record can be attributed to playing a potent Lions offense. However, Week 3 poses a similar challenge for Chicago’s defense, which allowed 334 passing yards. 

Historically, Dallas produces strong results when the offense succeeds. 

Dating back to the 2021 season, the Cowboys finished 32-5 when the team cleared 25.5 points, including 5-0 last season. 

Conversely, Dallas finished 12-24 over the same span when scoring 25 or fewer points, including 4-16 over the last 20 qualifying games. 

The over/under for this game immediately suggests oddsmakers are expecting points to flow. As of Monday afternoon, the total sits at 49.5 points. 

Some napkin math suggests Dallas’ team total closes around 25.5 or 26.5 points. 

Plus, the Bears have struggled to pick up wins without Johnson. Albeit in only a 12-game sample, the Bears finished 3-9 SU in 12 contests without their corner. 

Given the glaring edge for Dallas’ offense, I like the Cowboys to hand Chicago a third straight defeat on Sunday. 

Jaguars vs Texans Prediction: Texans Moneyline (-105)

Based on the market’s perception of the Texans and the difficult schedule early for Houston, my Jaguars vs Texans prediction is the Texans Moneyline (-105). 

I go back and forth between the Houston moneyline and the game total under. 

The bad news for Houston is that Jacksonville owns a rest advantage over the Texans, who played on Monday night. 

But the best unit on the field is the Houston defense. Although the team sits 24th in defensive DVOA, playing a pair of top-10 DVOA offenses has to contribute to that ranking. 

Last season, the Texans finished third in defensive DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. 

A big gap exists between these teams’ early metrics. Jacksonville ranks eighth in DVOA while Houston sits 22nd. 

However, the Texans have played the seventh-hardest schedule while Jacksonville has played the fourth-easiest. 

That, in my estimation, creates a buy-low spot on the Texans on the road. 

History also favors the Texans to grab their first win of the season in Week 3. 

Since 2004, road division dogs between +1 and +3.5 are 48-40-1 SU, assuming the dog won 10-11 games last year and made the postseason. 

As a result, I like the Texans to end their losing streak and hand the Jaguars a second straight loss. 

NFL Week 3 Picks: Public Consensus

As of September 19, four games have seen one side draw at least 70% of bets placed to cover the spread:

• Indianapolis Colts (-4): 83% of bets placed to cover the spread
• Dallas Cowboys (-1): 72% of bets placed to cover the spread
• San Francisco 49ers (-2.5): 71% of bets placed to cover the spread
• Houston Texans (+2): 70% of bets placed to cover the spread

Get additional NFL public betting data on all Week 3 games for both bets placed and money wagered percentages. Additionally, betting splits for the Super Bowl odds at BetMGM.