NFL Expert Picks: Week 2 Bets Include Packers, Broncos

Below, bettors can find my NFL betting predictions for Week 2 based on NFL odds at BetMGM. 

The slate begins on Thursday with the Packers hosting the Commanders. For the Sunday standalone, Minnesota hosts Atlanta for the second straight season. 

A MNF doubleheader takes place in Week 2. Texans vs Buccaneers begins the slate and is followed by Raiders vs Chargers in Las Vegas. 

Let’s dive into the selections. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

NFL Week 2 Predictions

Colts vs Broncos Prediction: Broncos Spread (-2.5, -110)

Based on Daniel Jones’ poor ATS record as a short underdog and the weak historical record of dogs off a big win, my Colts vs Broncos prediction is the Broncos Spread (-2.5, -110). 

This is simply too much respect for the Colts off a win against a not-very-good Dolphins team. 

Turnovers greatly benefited the Colts in Week 1. Of Indianapolis’ 33 points, 17 were derived from drives following a Miami turnover. 

Bo Nix suffered a lot of turnover misfortune against Tennessee. However, his exceptional defense bailed him out as Denver limited Tennessee to 2.4 yards per play. 

Accordingly, bettors find Indianapolis in a strong sell-high spot. Historically, early underdogs off a big win have proven good fades. 

Since 2003, dogs off a win by 21 or more points are 16-34-2 ATS in games 2-4. When those dogs are priced at +3 or shorter: 5-23-2 ATS. 

Additionally, Daniel Jones lacks market viability as a short market pup. 

The Duke product began his NFL career 8-4 ATS at +3.5 or shorter. In his last six starts within that range: 0-6 ATS with five losses by 20 or more points. 

Meanwhile, Nix owns an 8-1 ATS record as a market favorite. Broncos head coach Sean Payton is also 37-21-2 (63.8%) ATS between -3.5 and -1 in his career, including 6-3-1 with Denver. 

Based on those factors, I like the Broncos covering a short number in Week 2 to start 2-0. 

Cardinals vs Panthers Prediction: Panthers Spread (+6.5, -102)

Based on the Saints’ offensive success against the Cardinals and Murray’s weak ATS record as a market favorite, my Cardinals vs Panthers prediction is the Panthers Spread (+6.5, -102). 

Take a guess which offense produced more red zone trips in Cardinals at Saints. If you picked the Saints (4) over the Cardinals (3), congrats on your pick. 

Arizona did its best to give the game away. However, aiding their win was New Orleans’ inefficient red zone play and untimely penalty. 

Referees penalized New Orleans 13 times in Week 1. Additionally, the Saints offense finished 1-for-4 scoring touchdowns from within the red zone. 

For the entire game, yards per play finished 4.6-4.5 in New Orleans’ favor. That creates a natural sell-high spot on the Cardinals. 

Even more encouraging is Murray’s ATS struggles as a market favorite. He owns an aforementioned 14-19 ATS record, including 5-8 between -3.5 and -6.5. 

The Panthers, which stayed within this number last year against Arizona, also match a historically profitable betting system. 

Read More: Cardinals vs Panthers Prediction

Since 2004, conference road dogs are 45-10 ATS in games 2-13, assuming three factors:

• The spread falls between +2.5 and +13.5
• The team’s pythagorean win percentage falls between 4.4% and 12.3%
• The favorite has 7 days between games

When those dogs fall between +5.5 and +7: 13-2 ATS. 

As a result, I like Carolina to bounce back from Week 1 and cover the spread. 

Chiefs vs Eagles Prediction: Total Under 47 Points (-110)

Based on the extended rest for both teams and the matchup advantage for the Eagles defense, my Chiefs vs Eagles prediction is the Total Under 47 Points (-110). 

I’m deciding between the game total and the Chiefs team total here. Either way, I rate it a good spot for the Eagles defense. 

Philly allowed 22 points last February. However, most of those points came in garbage time for KC. 

Entering this season, the biggest question for Philadelphia is the secondary. However, it gets a reprieve at KC with Rashee Rice serving the second of a six-game suspension. 

With Rice out, I question how the Chiefs move the ball against an Eagles side with a rest advantage. Even more concerning? Philadelphia gets Jalen Carter back for Sunday’s game. 

Plus, we saw last year the effects on Philadelphia’s offense following the Brazil game. Albeit without A.J. Brown, Philadelphia left much to be desired against a bad Falcons defense. 

Full Analysis: Chiefs vs Eagles Prediction

The unknown here is the Chiefs defense against the Eagles offense. What gives me some reassurance is the fact that Kansas City plays at home rather than a neutral site. 

Additionally, Philly’s offense could experience some early growing pains with a new offensive coordinator. 

Historically, Kansas City home games have proved an under machine with Patrick Mahomes. In all Mahomes home starts, Chiefs games are 34-20-1 (63%) to the under. 

With the total sitting on or above four key numbers – 41, 43, 44 and 47 – I like the under between two rested teams on Sunday.

Dolphins vs Patriots Prediction: Dolphins Moneyline (-130)

Based on Sunday’s performances, I’m changing my opinion of this game from the lookahead line. For my Dolphins vs Patriots prediction, I like the Dolphins Moneyline (-130). 

Ultimately, I’ll wait for injury reports to emerge before making a final decision on this game. To side with Miami, Christian Gonzalez has to miss the game for the Patriots. 

I get the Dolphins look like they’ve quit. I also recognize they’re basically sending you, dear reader, out to play cornerback. 

Miami made Daniel Jones look like the second coming of Peyton Manning. Can they do the same to Drake Maye? Time will tell. 

Two advantages exist for the Dolphins. First, the Patriots offensive line appears to be a big problem. Second, New England’s corner group also leaves much to be desired. 

A silver lining also emerges from Miami’s Week 1 game at Indianapolis. 

Albeit on only 12 rushes, Miami produced a 60% rush success rate on plays excluding turnovers. 

Miami achieved 6.5 yards per carry, a figure bettered by only Baltimore and Washington. 

If the Dolphins can find a way to keep their defense off the field, I like the hosts to cover a short number. 

Raiders vs Chargers Prediction: Raiders Spread (+3.5, -115)

Based on the early success of divisional underdogs and the fact that Las Vegas sits north of a key number, my Raiders vs Chargers prediction is the Raiders Spread (+3.5, -105). 

Initially, I wanted to wait on Vegas. Brock Bowers sustained an injury at New England, but the star tight end said after Sunday’s game he’ll play against the Chargers.

With that concern alleviated, I’ll buy the Raiders at +3.5 against a divisional rival that swept Vegas last season. 

Historically, divisional underdogs excel early in the season. 

Such dogs in games 1-3 are 49-13-4 (79%) ATS, assuming three factors:

• The dog’s previous head-to-head result falls between -19 and +6
• The dog failed to reach the postseason the prior year
• The spread falls between +3 and +5.5

When those dogs lost by 19 and 13 in the last meeting – Vegas fell by 14 in Week 18 against Los Angeles – they improve to 13-2 ATS. 

Additionally, Carroll excels in his career as a dog north of a key number. 

The Super Bowl-winning coach owns a 53-34-3 ATS record as a dog. When he’s listed between +3 and +4.5, Carroll posted a 20-10-3 (66.7%) ATS record. 

Now, a concern exists in that Jim Harbaugh owns a 15-3 ATS record when he’s listed between -4 and -3. However, only four of those games came with the Chargers (3-1). 

Given the historical precedent of these divisional dogs and the fact Vegas sits north of a key number, I like the Raiders to cover the spread. 

NFL Week 2 Picks: Public Consensus

As of September 14, six games have seen one side draw at least 70% of bets placed to cover the spread:

• Dallas Cowboys (-5.5): 79% of bets placed to cover the spread
• Philadelphia Eagles (-1): 77% of bets placed to cover the spread
• San Francisco 49ers (-3): 76% of bets placed to cover the spread
• Pittsburgh Steelers (-3): 75% of bets placed to cover the spread
• Arizona Cardinals (-6.5): 74% of bets placed to cover the spread
• Denver Broncos (-1.5): 72% of bets placed to cover the spread

Get additional NFL public betting data on all Week 2 games for both bets placed and money wagered percentages. Additionally, betting splits for the Super Bowl odds at BetMGM.