NFL Expert Picks Week 16: Denver Covers at Home

Below, bettors can find my NFL betting predictions for Week 16 based on NFL odds at BetMGM. 

With a riveting TNF contest in the books, bettors have 15 games left to pick from in Week 16. 

The rest of the slate features two standalone games on Saturday: Commanders vs Eagles and Bears vs Packers. 

Sunday Night Football features Ravens vs Patriots as New England tries to avoid a second straight loss. Then, Colts vs 49ers closes out the slate on MNF. 

Let’s dive into the selections. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

NFL Week 16 Predictions

Broncos vs Jaguars Prediction: Denver Broncos Spread (-3, -110)

Based on Jacksonville’s extreme variance on offense and Denver’s success at home this season, my Broncos vs Jaguars prediction is the Denver Broncos Spread (-3, -110). 

The offenses, for the most part, are a wash to me. But I find myself more inclined to sell Jacksonville after a 48-point explosion against the Jets. 

At face value, it’s a strong offensive performance against a bad defense. The problem? Jacksonville now goes from facing a team 30th in defensive DVOA to sixth, per ftnfantasy.com. 

That could allow for Liam Coen’s offense to regress. Excluding Week 15, Jacksonville ranked as the third-highest-variance offense in the NFL. 

Plus, the Broncos have yet to lose outright at home this season. That run includes some luck, with only four wins coming by four or more points. 

On the road, Jacksonville has largely picked up wins against bad teams. In fact, this game marks the first time Jacksonville is a road underdog since Week 4. 

Lastly, history suggests Denver finds itself in a strong spot. Since 2003, fading non-divisional underdogs listed between +3 and +6 saw bettors go 83-29-2 ATS, assuming three factors:

• The underdog’s previous ATS margin falls between +1.5 and +20.5
• The underdog closed as a favorite in its last game
• The favorite’s previous game margin falls between +3 and +20

Over the last 21 qualifying matches, those underdogs are 2-19 ATS. As a result, I predict Denver covers the spread at home. 

Dolphins vs Bengals Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals Moneyline (-140)

[Writer’s Note: the subsequent analysis was written before Miami announced Quinn Ewers would start Sunday’s game. At the current line – Bengals -4.5 – I still predict Cincinnati covers the spread]. 

Based on Miami’s weakness defending the pass and the Bengals’ embarrassing performance against the Ravens, my Dolphins vs Bengals prediction is the Bengals Moneyline (-140). 

Both teams saw their playoff hopes end in Week 15. That renders Sunday’s contest a meaningless game. 

However, Cincinnati enters the game with a rest advantage over Miami. They also enter with the better quarterback and skill group in a game with a total of 50.5. 

Plus, the Bengals laid a goose egg against the Ravens. 

Not for nothing: teams the week after scoring zero points are 31-12-4 ATS in non-divisional games, including 14-2-2 in Week 11 onward. 

From a matchup standpoint, Miami ranks 26th in pass defense DVOA and 30th in dropback success rate. 

Cincinnati can exploit that with Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase. Plus, Tee Higgins has a better chance to return from concussion protocol this week. 

Prior to facing Baltimore last week, the Bengals scored 30+ in two straight with Burrow. This season, Miami has yet to win a game when the defense allows over 27 points. 

Implied probability puts the Cincinnati team total at 26.5. Barring a complete turnaround from Miami’s defense, I predict the Bengals win outright on Sunday.

Ravens vs Patriots Prediction: Baltimore Ravens Spread (-3, -105)

Based on New England’s declining rush defense and Baltimore’s improving defensive record, my Ravens vs Patriots prediction is the Ravens Spread (-2.5, -110). 

Since Milton Williams sustained an injury, the Patriots defense has taken a dip. Entering Week 16, New England has fallen to 18th in rush defense DVOA. 

That’s going to present a problem against Baltimore. The Ravens enter this matchup ranked eighth in rush offense DVOA, albeit against a pretty easy defensive schedule. 

Plus, for all of Lamar Jackson’s issues this season, he’s shown flashes against man-heavy coverage units. 

Jackson ranks ninth in DVOA against man coverage, which New England runs at one of the league’s highest rates. 

That leads me to believe Baltimore could have its way on offense. Although the unit has struggled at home of late, it’s largely due to red zone inefficiencies. 

Against Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, Baltimore finished 3-for-7 in red zone touchdown rate. Just against the Steelers – another poor run defense – Baltimore finished 2-for-6. 

While I enter the game concerned about Baltimore’s defense, one other factor swings me to the Ravens. 

Early in the week, public bettors are all over the Patriots. As of Tuesday evening, 79% of bets placed and 9289 of money wagered are on the Patriots to cover the spread. 

Since 2016, non-divisional dogs receiving over 58% of bets priced between +2 and +3 are 9-24-3 ATS, assuming the team closed as an underdog in its last game. 

Just over the last two years: 3-12-1 ATS. Given those factors, I predict the Ravens cover the spread on SNF. 

NFL Week 16 Picks Against the Spread: Consensus Picks

Week 16 currently features a majority of games with one side getting at least 70% of bets placed. As of Friday morning, nine games fit that description:

• Los Angeles Chargers (+2.5): 82% of bets placed
• Chicago Bears (-1.5): 81% of bets placed
• Denver Broncos (-3): 81% of bets placed
• Buffalo Bills (-10.5): 80% of bets placed
• Philadelphia Eagles (-7): 79% of bets placed
• New England Patriots (+3): 73% of bets placed
• Atlanta Falcons (-3): 73% of bets placed
• New Orleans Saints (-6): 71% of bets placed
• Cincinnati Bengals (-4): 71% of bets placed

Get all NFL public betting data on all Week 16 games for both bets placed and money wagered percentages. Additionally, find betting splits for the Super Bowl odds at BetMGM.