NFL Expert Picks Week 15: Packers End Broncos Streak

Below, bettors can find my NFL betting predictions for Week 15 based on NFL odds at BetMGM. 

Following the conclusion of TNF, bettors are left with 15 games across Sunday and Monday. Headlining Sunday’s action is Patriots vs Bills and Rams vs Lions with playoff implications for both contests.

Culminating Sunday’s action is Cowboys vs Vikings on SNF. To close out the Week 15 action, it’s Steelers vs Dolphins on MNF. 

Let’s dive into the selections. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

NFL Week 15 Predictions

Broncos vs Packers Prediction: Green Bay Packers Moneyline (-130)

Based on Denver’s lack of experience against good competition and their fraudulent record, my Broncos vs Packers prediction is the Green Bay Packers Moneyline (-130). 

Regular readers of this column know I’ve faded Denver in two straight games. Although Denver managed a 24-17 win in Vegas, the scoreline is a touch misleading. 

Denver scored seven points off a punt return. The defense also kept Las Vegas out of the end zone from its own five-yard line. 

Yards per play finished 4.9 to 4.8 for Denver, which has only played two games against teams sixth or better in DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. 

They lost in Week 2 against the Colts, albeit a bit unluckily. Then they stole a win over the Chiefs thanks to turnover luck. 

Entering Week 14, Denver was a 10-win team with the point differential of an eight-win team. It’s also the first time all year Denver plays a team ranked 10th or better in defensive DVOA. 

Given that mismatch, I predict the Packers will end Denver’s winning streak on Sunday. 

Seahawks vs Colts Prediction: Indianapolis Colts Spread (+11.5, -110)

Based on Indianapolis’ ability to run the ball and Seattle’s inconsistent defensive record, my Seahawks vs Colts prediction is the Indianapolis Colts Spread (+11.5, -110). 

Is there a team that looked worse on Sunday than Indy? Daniel Jones tore his Achilles, the defense allowed 36 points, and the Colts are now favored to miss the playoffs. 

But this Week 15 line is crazy. I get it’s Riley Leonard against a really good Seattle pass defense. However, the Colts should be able to run the ball effectively. 

Seattle leads the NFL in rush defense DVOA. But the defense has faced only one team fifth or better in rush offense DVOA. 

In general, Seattle’s defense has faced the league’s fifth-easiest set of offenses. The closest comparison to Indianapolis’ rush offense is the Rams, who notched 119 yards on the ground. 

Over the last six games, Seattle has allowed 4.82 yards per rush attempt. For the entire season, Seattle has allowed 3.8 yards per attempt, signifying some regression. 

Plus, Seattle’s recent victory margins at home are a bit misleading. The Seahawks beat Arizona 44-22, but scored two defensive touchdowns. 

A 26-0 win over Minnesota looks encouraging. However, the Seahawks scored an 85-yard defensive touchdown and scored on offense after receiving the ball at the Vikings 25-yard line. 

For the Colts, Week 15 marked the first time all year Jonathan Taylor scored in a losing effort. 

Lastly, I’m fading Seattle due to the public’s early obsession with this team. As of Monday afternoon, 76% of bets are on Seattle to cover. 

This season, teams off a loss by 3-17 points receiving between 19% and 37% are 27-4 ATS, assuming two factors:

• The game is a non-divisional game
• The opponent’s win percentage is 25% or higher

Given those factors, I predict the Colts will stay within the number at Seattle. 

Rams vs Lions Prediction: Los Angeles Rams Spread (-5.5, -110)

Based on the Rams’ outstanding rush defense and the Lions’ myriad defensive injuries, my Rams vs Lions prediction is the Los Angeles Rams Spread (-5.5, -110). 

The key to beating the Lions is keeping Jahmyr Gibbs out of the end zone. Detroit is 7-0 this season when he scores a rushing touchdown vs. 1-5 when he fails to do so. 

As a unit, Detroit ranks fourth in rush offense DVOA. However, they’re taking on a Rams team that ranks third in the corresponding defensive category. 

Detroit has faced a very easy schedule of rush defenses, too. Only once all season has the team played a top-eight rush DVOA defense. 

On the other side, Detroit’s defense is going to suffer against a powerful Rams offense. Brian Branch, Terrion Arnold and Kerby Joseph likely all miss this game. 

Detroit has played five games against teams 10th or better in pass offense DVOA. They’re 1-4 SU in those games, with all four losses coming by at least seven points. 

The lone success came against Dallas, which sits 28 spots behind the Rams in defensive DVOA. 

Since Week 12, Detroit ranks 30th in dropback EPA per play and 26th in dropback success rate. That’s going to put them in trouble against one of the league’s best passing offenses. 

Accordingly, I predict the Rams cover the spread for the second straight week. 

Texans vs Cardinals Prediction: Arizona Cardinals Spread (+9.5, -105)

Based on Arizona likely to improve their defensive performance and their ability to keep games close, my Texans vs Cardinals prediction is the Arizona Cardinals Spread (+9.5, -105). 

Here are the games this season where Arizona has *not* covered this number: Week 10 at Seattle, Week 11 vs San Francisco and last week against the Rams. 

In every other game, the Cardinals have stayed within this number. The common thread amongst those three failures? Opposing offenses shined against Arizona. 

Every team scored over 40 points (Seattle scored two defensive touchdowns). 

All three also rank eighth or better in offensive DVOA. To date, Arizona has played the second-hardest set of offenses. 

A reprieve arrives in Week 15. Houston ranks 25th in offensive DVOA. While Houston has covered this number three times this season, the opposition’s defense left much to be desired. 

Houston beat a JV Ravens defense by 34. They won by 11 against San Francisco at home and beat Tennessee by 26 points. 

Houston closed -7 against Tennessee in Week 4. I refuse to believe the Cardinals are 2.5 points worse than the Brian Callahan-led Titans. 

Plus, public bettors are loading up on the Texans to cover the spread. As of Wednesday morning, 65% of bets are on Houston to cover. 

This season, previous underdogs getting between 63% and 81% of bets are 6-25 ATS against another previous underdog. 

Given those factors, I predict Arizona stays within the number on Sunday in Houston.

Saints vs Panthers Prediction: Panthers Team Total Under 21.5 Points

Based on New Orleans’ recent defensive improvement and its prior success against Carolina, my Saints vs Panthers prediction is Panthers Under 21.5 Points (-115). 

New Orleans owns a defense perfectly suited to defend the Panthers. It’s a large reason why Carolina managed only seven points at home against New Orleans. 

Perhaps the extra prep time and indoor environment help the Panthers. However, schematics suggest it’s unlikely to happen. 

Carolina’s offense ranks 26th in pass DVOA vs 14th in rush offense. Conversely, the Saints rank 21st and 13th in the corresponding defensive categories. 

Only once in New Orleans’ last five games has an opponent cleared this number. The defense also ranks 16th in total defensive DVOA, having played the fourth-hardest set of offenses. 

Plus, I question how Bryce Young exploits the defense if the rushing game is taken away. New Orleans runs the 12th-highest rate of zone coverage in the league. 

Young has struggled against that scheme. The former first overall pick ranks 31st of 32nd in DVOA against zone coverage. 

Even if you remove interceptions from the sample, he still places 20th of 32nd in EPA per dropback against zone. 

Lastly, virtually all of Carolina’s best performances this year have come at home. Entering this game, the team averages 22.3 home points vs just 16.1 on the road. 

NFL Week 15 Picks Against the Spread: Consensus Picks

Three Week 15 contests feature lopsided betting splits in one direction. As of Sunday morning, these three sides have amassed at least 70% of bets placed to cover the spread:

• Carolina Panthers (-2.5) at New Orleans Saints: 80% of bets placed
• San Francisco 49ers (-12.5) vs Tennessee Titans: 79% of bets placed
• Dallas Cowboys (-5.5) vs Minnesota Vikings: 73% of bets placed

Find NFL public betting data on all Week 15 games for both bets placed and money wagered percentages as well as betting splits for the Super Bowl odds at BetMGM.