NFL Expert Picks Week 14: Raiders Cover Against Denver

Below, bettors can find my NFL betting predictions for Week 14 based on NFL odds at BetMGM. 

Thirteen games remain on the schedule after the Lions captured a 44-30 win over Dallas on TNF.

The remaining standalone contests include Chiefs vs Texans on Sunday Night Football and Chargers vs Eagles on MNF. Additionally, the Jaguars host the Colts in a pivotal AFC South clash. 

Let’s dive into the selections. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

NFL Week 14 Predictions

Browns vs Titans Prediction: Tennessee Titans Spread (+3.5, -110)

Based on Tennessee’s likely defensive improvement and Cleveland’s weakness on special teams, my Browns vs Titans prediction is the Titans Spread (+3.5, -110). 

It’s my opinion that Shedeur Sanders should never close above a key number this early in his career. 

While I recognize Tennessee probably struggles to move the ball, the same could be said of Cleveland. In Sanders’ first two starts, the offense produced a 29.4% offensive success rate. 

Cleveland also ranks 32nd in offensive DVOA. It marks the easiest test for Tennessee’s defense all year. 

Entering Week 13, the Titans had played the league’s sixth-hardest set of offenses. Additionally, the defense returned Jeffrey Simmons and Arden Key on Sunday. 

That should bolster Tennessee’s profile as an underdog. Additionally, it should not go unnoticed that an advantage exists for the Titans on special teams. 

Tennessee entered Sunday ranked seventh in special teams DVOA. Cleveland sits 25th in the same category. 

Lastly, underdogs in games 11-15 fresh off scoring three or fewer points are 36-11-2 ATS in non-divisional contests. 

Based on those factors, I predict Tennessee stays within the number at Cleveland. 

Raiders vs Broncos Prediction: Las Vegas Raiders Spread (+7.5, -110)

Based on Denver’s inconsistent offensive record and the Raiders’ defensive success at Denver, my Raiders vs Broncos prediction is the Las Vegas Raiders Spread (+7.5, -110). 

I get it – it’s gross. But the first thing I’ll mention is that these gross home dogs have a historical record successfully covering the number. 

Las Vegas posted a -7.5 ATS margin on Sunday against the Chargers. Since 2003, conference home dogs between +7 and +19 are 47-17-1 ATS, assuming two factors:

• The dog’s previous ATS margin falls between -7 and -20
• The dog closed a market underdog in its previous game

When those dogs are priced at +7 or +7.5: 21-6 ATS. 

Beyond that trend, Vegas played admirably at Denver earlier this season. The Raiders fell 10-7 on TNF, easily covering the spread. 

For bettors to believe Denver covers this number, the logic is that Vegas’ defense plays as badly as either Cincinnati or Denver. 

Excluding Sunday’s game at Washington, Denver owns a 39.4% offensive success rate in games against 30th or better in defensive DVOA. 

Against Vegas, Denver managed only 220 yards of offense. That’s their worst output of the season. 

Unless Denver explodes offensively, I struggle to see how they win by more than a touchdown. Accordingly, I predict Vegas covers the spread on Sunday.

Ravens vs Steelers Prediction: Baltimore Ravens Spread (-5.5, -110)

Based on Pittsburgh’s inability to stop the run and Baltimore’s rushing success vs Pittsburgh last season, my Ravens vs Steelers prediction is the Baltimore Ravens Spread (-5.5, -110). 

I’m sure there are a bunch of trends pointing to the Steelers as a live dog. The fact remains that, from a matchup standpoint, Pittsburgh should struggle in this game. 

James Cook rushed for 144 yards against the Steelers. As a team, Buffalo notched 249 rushing yards on five yards per rush attempt. 

Now the Steelers defense, which could play without Patrick Queen, has to face Derrick Henry. In his last two outings against Pittsburgh, Henry has rushed for 162 and 186 yards. 

Baltimore enters Week 14 ranked ninth in rush offense DVOA. On Sunday, they get a Pittsburgh defense which sits ninth on defense. 

However, only Buffalo and Minnesota have proven higher variance defenses this season. 

Additionally, Baltimore gets extra time to prepare for a Steelers defense that faced 74 plays on Sunday. If the unit turns around and shows up, I’ll tip my hat to them. 

Plus, Baltimore’s blowout loss against the Bengals is a bit misleading. Baltimore won the yards per play battle and had two touchdowns erased by a turnover or penalty. 

If those 14 points appear on the board, we likely view Baltimore much differently entering this game. 

That’s likely contributing to the public’s early obsession with Pittsburgh. As of Monday afternoon, 66% of bets and 75% of the money are backing Pittsburgh +5.5. 

Since last season, teams getting over 60% of tickets against a previous favorite off a loss by 10 or more are 2-15 ATS. Since 2010: 28-34-1 ATS. 

Lastly, Pittsburgh’s biggest offensive advantage is mitigated here. The Steelers rank 12th in rush offense DVOA, but Baltimore ranks 11th in the corresponding defensive category. 

Since Week 6, Baltimore ranks fifth in defensive success rate, including third since Week 8. 

If Baltimore moves the ball on the ground and stays ahead of schedule, I don’t trust Aaron Rodgers to lead a backdoor cover. 

For those reasons, I predict Baltimore covers the spread on Sunday.

NFL Week 14 Picks Against the Spread: Consensus Picks

Six Week 14 games feature at least one side receiving over 70% of bets placed to cover the spread:

• Los Angeles Rams (-8): 84% of bets placed
• Cleveland Browns (-4): 84% of bets placed
• Washington Commanders (+2): 76% of bets placed
• Seattle Seahawks (-7): 72% of bets placed
• Chicago Bears (+6.5): 72% of bets placed
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5): 71% of bets placed

Get NFL public betting data on all Week 14 games for both bets placed and money wagered percentages. 

Additionally, betting splits for the Super Bowl odds at BetMGM.