NFL Expert Picks Week 13: Target the Under in Indy

Below, bettors can find my NFL betting predictions for Week 13 based on NFL odds at BetMGM. 

Twelve games remain in Week 13 after a four-game early slate on Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Thus far, all four underdogs have covered the spread and won outright.

Notable contests left include Commanders vs Broncos on SNF, Patriots vs Giants on MNF and a crucial AFC South clash: Colts vs Texans.

Let’s dive into the selections. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

NFL Week 13 Predictions

Colts vs Texans Prediction: Total Under 44.5 Points (-110)

Based on Houston’s strong defensive record this season and the Colts’ improving defensive record, my Colts vs Texans prediction is the Total Under 44.5 Points (-110). 

Anytime I see a total above key numbers with DeMeco Ryans, I’m inclined to predict an under. In his coaching career, Ryans is 24-4 to the under when the total closes above 42 points. 

This season, he’s 4-0 in such situations. 

Beyond the trends, Houston should give Indianapolis some trouble. This game marks only the second time all year the Colts play a top-six DVOA defense. 

They managed 29 points at home against Denver. However, Houston’s defense offers an upgrade over that unit, especially with extended rest. 

Daniel Jones has also never faced a Ryans defense. Plus, overtime forced extra reps onto the Colts offense, which could further impact the unit. 

If the Texans capture an early advantage, I further like the defensive matchup. Indianapolis blocks well for the run, but sits 24th in pass-block win rate. 

That’s a problem against one of the league’s best pass rushes. 

All of that said, Indy’s defense goes from playing a good offense to a bad one. The Chiefs entered Week 12 ranked third in offensive DVOA, while Houston sits 23rd. 

Plus, Houston has only found offensive success this season when it can run the ball. The issue? Indianapolis has performed well in limiting opposing rushing games. 

Additionally, I like the transactions made before the deadline for Indy’s defense. Given those factors, I predict this division clash finishes under the pregame total. 

Panthers vs Rams Prediction: Panthers 1H Under 6.5 Points (+135)

Based on the short rest spot for the Panthers and their easy offensive schedule thus far, my Panthers vs Rams prediction is the Panthers 1H Team Total Under 6.5 Points (+135).

A disclaimer: I prefer taking Panthers 1H Under 7.5 Points around -115. The price offers better return at 6.5 points, but given it’s placed beneath a key number, I like it better at 7.5. 

Carolina returns home after a road MNF game, creating a terrible spot. Even more concerning – Sunday’s game offers the biggest test for the offense all season. 

Dave Canales’ offense has yet to play a top-five defense by defensive DVOA. In two games against top-10 units (Green Bay and Arizona), the Panthers stayed under this benchmark both times. 

Despite playing the league’s sixth-easiest offensive schedule, Carolina has cleared this benchmark only five times in 12 games. 

At 4-8, the Panthers hold the seventh-worst 1H team total record. 

Los Angeles leads the league in defensive DVOA and has played the ninth-hardest set of opposing offenses. 

After allowing four of its first five opponents to clear this figure, the Rams defense has clamped up. Since Week 6, only two teams have cleared this benchmark. 

For the entire season, Los Angeles leads the NFL in 1H EPA per play allowed. The defense simultaneously ranks fourth in 1H defensive success rate. 

Given those factors, I predict a slow start for the Panthers on short rest.

Patriots vs Giants Prediction: New York Giants Spread (+7.5, -115)

Based on the Giants’ penchant for playing close games and some key injuries to New England, my Patriots vs Giants prediction is the New York Giants Spread (+7.5, -115). 

New York has two wins this season, but the team is 1-5 in one-score games. Accordingly, the Giants have underperformed their expected win total by 2.4 games. 

Stylistically, the Giants match up well against the Patriots. New York struggles to defend the run while New England struggles to run the ball. 

Offensively, New England ranks 28th in rush offense DVOA vs. fifth in pass offense, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Meanwhile, the Giants rank 16th in pass offense DVOA. On Monday, they’ll take on a Patriots defense that ranks 27th in the corresponding defensive category. 

Of greater concern for the Patriots are two key injuries. Rookie left tackle Will Campbell likely misses Monday’s game after sustaining an injury at Cincinnati. 

That’s a problem against a very good Giants pass rush. Additionally, Milton Williams remains on IR, which inhibits New England’s ability to exploit the interior of New York’s offensive line. 

With time to throw, either Jameis Winston or Jaxson Dart should carve up New England’s secondary, which runs a heavy dose of man coverage. 

That’s similar to the Lions, who allowed 366 yards to Winston on Sunday. The difference between the teams? Detroit entered that game playing decent man coverage. 

The same is not true about the Patriots. Even if the offense can move the ball on New York, I suspect the Giants could find a backdoor cover on MNF. 

New York owns a 2-0-1 ATS record over its previous three games. Expect, at minimum, a decent performance on extended rest in a favorable matchup. 

NFL Week 13 Picks Against the Spread: Consensus Picks

As of Sunday morning, four teams have amassed at least 70% of bets placed to cover the spread:

• Buccaneers (-3.5) vs. Cardinals: 83% of bets placed
• Broncos (-6.5) at Commanders: 78% of bets placed
• Jaguars (-6) at Titans: 71% of bets placed
• Dolphins (-5.5) vs Saints: 70% of bets placed

Only two games have seen one side receive under 55% of bets placed. Those are the Texans (+3) in Indianapolis and the Giants (+7.5) in New England.

Get NFL public betting data on all Week 13 games for both bets placed and money wagered percentages. Additionally, betting splits for the Super Bowl odds at BetMGM.