NFL Expert Picks Week 11: Broncos Regress vs. Chiefs

Below, bettors can find my NFL betting predictions for Week 11 based on NFL odds at BetMGM. 

A 14-game slate begins on Thursday night with Patriots vs Jets. For New England, it’s a chance to extend its lead atop the AFC East as a heavy home favorite. 

Other notable contests include Broncos vs Chiefs, Eagles vs Lions and Raiders vs Cowboys on MNF. The NFL international schedule also closes with Dolphins vs Commanders in Madrid. 

Let’s dive into the selections. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

NFL Week 11 Predictions

Broncos vs Chiefs Prediction: Chiefs Spread (-3.5, -110)

Based on Denver’s overwhelming regression potential and Kansas City’s offensive record, my Broncos vs Chiefs prediction is the Kansas City Chiefs Spread (-3.5, -110). 

The Broncos are total frauds. Sean Payton’s team enters this game 8-2 with the point differential of a 6.7-3.3 win team. 

Denver entered Week 10 ranked eighth in DVOA. However, it came against the 28th-hardest schedule in the league. 

The Broncos trail Kansas City by three spots. However, Kansas City earned its rating against the 11th-hardest schedule in the NFL, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Denver’s defense – which remains without Patrick Surtain – struggled in games against good offenses. Kansas City qualifies as Denver’s second game against a top-five DVOA offense. 

The Broncos fell 29-28 to the Colts in the other matchup. A key difference between the Colts and Chiefs – Kansas City’s defense has posted strong metrics against good teams. 

As of this writing, Kansas City sits a spot behind Indianapolis in defensive DVOA. However, the Chiefs have faced the 12th-hardest set of offenses, while Indy has faced the second-easiest. 

To me, Denver’s only path to covering is this game landing inside the number. Historically, Andy Reid and Mahomes have performed brilliantly off a bye. 

Reid himself is 18-4 SU with the extra rest, including 6-1 with Mahomes. Additionally, Mahomes is 32-1 since the 2023 regular season when leading after the first quarter. 

This season, Denver has never earned an advantage as an underdog following the first 15 minutes. 

Pair those trends with the matchup advantage, and I predict Kansas City covers in Denver. 

Falcons vs Panthers Prediction: Panthers Spread (+3.5, -110)

Based on Carolina’s strong running game and the Falcons’ weakness in stopping the run, my Falcons vs Panthers prediction is the Carolina Panthers Spread (+3.5, -110). 

Who is going to bet the Panthers after an outright loss as favorites? What should not go ignored about that game, however, is the poor matchup advantage for Carolina’s offense. 

The Panthers built their prior success running the ball. Carolina entered Week 10 ranked ninth in rush offense DVOA. Then the team ran into a Saints unit 13th in rush defense DVOA. 

Atlanta poses an easier test for the Panthers. The team just allowed over 200 yards to Jonathan Taylor and, excluding that performance, ranked 24th in rush defense DVOA. 

Now Raheem Morris’ team has to travel back from Germany with no time to recuperate. That should further exacerbate their defensive issues and allow Carolina to move the ball. 

Offensively, Atlanta has yet to produce enough success to justify sitting above a key number. 

Excluding Week 10, Atlanta ranked 21st in offensive DVOA, having faced the league’s 26th-hardest set of defenses. 

To beat Carolina, the offense has to excel through the air. Michael Penix is not the quarterback to exploit a defense 22nd in pass defense DVOA. 

Accordingly, I predict Sunday’s game offers a strong buy-low opportunity on Carolina to cover. 

Bills vs Buccaneers Prediction: Buffalo Bills Spread (-5.5, -110)

Based on Buffalo’s advantage on the ground and the overwhelming support against the Bills, my Bills vs Buccaneers prediction is the Bills Spread (-5.5, -110). 

Buffalo delivered an unexplainable performance on Sunday in Miami. Now, bettors are running to the window to bet against Josh Allen at home? Color me intrigued. 

Recently, public dogs against previous favorites after a loss have struggled. Since last season, dogs getting over 51% of tickets against a favorite off a loss by three or more are 5-13 ATS. 

Just this season: 1-6 ATS. 

That, of course, isn’t reason enough to take the Bills. What drives my interest in Buffalo is the advantage on the ground. 

Only Indianapolis ranks ahead of Buffalo in rush offense DVOA. That renders Week 11 as the hardest matchup for the Buccaneers’ run defense, which ranks fourth in rush defense DVOA. 

However, Tampa Bay has played only one game against a top-11 rush offense. That came at Detroit, who beat Tampa Bay 24-9 on MNF. 

Plus, Tampa Bay’s run defense qualifies as a boom or bust unit. Here are Tampa’s rushing defense numbers by field zone:

• Stuffed (Opponent Tackled At or Behind Line): 2nd
• Second Level (Opponent Runs for 5-10 Yards): 3rd
• Open Field Yards (Opponent Runs for 10+ Yards): 30th

The Bills’ ranks in the corresponding offensive metrics: 6th, 4th and 12th. 

Buffalo has rushed for over 140 yards in five games. They’re a perfect 5-0 SU in those contests, with all five wins coming by at least seven points. 

Tampa Bay just allowed 166 on the ground to New England. In Detroit, the team allowed 164 rushing yards. 

Accordingly, I predict this matchup offers a strong buy-low opportunity on Buffalo. 

Steelers vs Bengals Prediction: Steelers Over 27.5 Points (-110)

Based on Cincinnati’s porous defense and the Steelers’ success against Cincinnati in Week 7, my Steelers vs Bengals prediction is the Steelers Over 27.5 Points (-110). 

Only one team has stayed under this benchmark against Cincinnati. That defensive success for the Bengals came in Week 1 at Cleveland, which ranks 32nd in offensive DVOA. 

The Steelers offense has produced inconsistent results this season. But the offense acquitted itself quite well at Cincinnati. 

Despite two turnovers, the Steelers scored 31 points against the Bengals. As a unit, the team punted only twice. Both turnovers also occurred in Cincinnati territory. 

That creates a potential buy-low opportunity on Pittsburgh after a 10-point effort in Los Angeles. Plus, the offense has looked good against bad defenses this year. 

Inclusive of the game against Cincinnati, Pittsburgh scored 21, 31 and 34 points against teams currently 28th or worse in defensive DVOA. 

The failure came at New England, which mitigated Pittsburgh’s ability to run the ball. 

Lastly, Trey Hendrickson is trending toward not playing in this game. He also missed the first meeting against Pittsburgh and failed to play against the Bears. 

Without him, Cincinnati allowed both offenses to score at least 30 points.

NFL Week 11 Picks Against the Spread: Consensus Picks

Only three games this week feature the preferred side receiving under 59% of bets placed to cover the spread. Further, four games feature a team receiving over 70% of bets placed to cover the spread:

• San Francisco 49ers (-3) at Arizona Cardinals: 89% of bets placed
• Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) at Las Vegas Raiders: 81% of bets placed
• Miami Dolphins (-2.5) vs. Commanders (Madrid, Spain): 79% of bets placed
• Green Bay Packers (-7) at New York Giants: 71% of bets placed

Find all NFL public betting data across Week 11 games for both bets placed and money wagered percentages. 

Additionally, receive betting splits for the Super Bowl odds at BetMGM.