NFL Expert Picks: Week 1 Bets Include Ravens, Falcons

Below, bettors can find my NFL betting predictions for Week 1 based on NFL odds at BetMGM. 

The theme for Week 1? A lot of road favorites. Across all 16 games, seven teams currently find themselves as road favorites. 

Other notable matchups include the Eagles (-7) on opening night against Dallas. Additionally, the Chiefs sit as three-point favorites against the Chargers. 

Let’s dive into the selections. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

NFL Week 1 Predictions

Commanders vs Giants Prediction: Giants Spread (+6.5, -105)

Based on the Commanders’ penchant for playing close games and Russell Wilson’s ATS success as a dog, my Commanders vs Giants prediction is the Giants Spread (+6.5, ). 

My initial reaction to this line is that it’s likely to prove a popular parlay and teaser leg in favor of the Commanders. Last season, Washington finished 2-0 against the Giants. 

But New York stayed within this number on both occasions. In Week 2 at Washington, New York lost by three in a game where their kicker aggregated an injury on the first play of the game. 

In those two games, the Giants ran the ball at will against Washington. 

From a yards gained standpoint, New York rushed for over 125 yards in both meetings. Both games ranked among New York’s five-best rushing outputs of the season. 

While Washington possessed one of the league’s best offenses last season, the defense proved a liability. 

Last year, Washington finished 23rd in defensive DVOA against the fourth-easiest set of offenses, per ftnfantasy.com. 

If Washington fails to improve defensively, it leaves a backdoor cover open for the Giants as big underdogs.

Plus, assuming Wilson starts, bettors are backing a quarterback who has excelled as a dog in his career. 

In 64 career starts as a pup, Wilson recorded a 40-22-2 ATS record. At +6.5 or higher: 10-3 ATS. 

History also suggests Week 1 presents a prime spot to back New York. 

Since 2004, divisional dogs in games 1-2 are 62-23-3 ATS (72.9%), assuming two more factors:

• The dog failed to reach the postseason the prior season
• The dog’s margin in the last head-to-head meeting falls between -13 and +4

Buccaneers vs Falcons Prediction: Falcons Moneyline (+105)

Based on the historically profitable spot for Atlanta and the potential regression of Tampa Bay’s offense, my Falcons vs Buccaneers prediction is the Falcons Moneyline (). 

What is most impressive about Tampa Bay’s 2024 season is the significant offensive improvement. In 2023, the Bucs ranked 20th in offensive DVOA, including 28th on the ground, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Last season, the Bucs jumped to seventh and eighth in those metrics. They also improved by 10 spots in pass offense DVOA. 

How much of that can be attributed to Liam Coen is somewhat unknown. Either way, Coen departed this offseason from the Bucs’ offensive coordinator job. 

That potentially creates a sell-high spot in Week 1 against a strong Falcons offense. Atlanta underwent a strong improvement, too, jumping from 24th in 2023 to 14th in 2024 DVOA. 

At this moment, I’m more confident in Atlanta’s offense retaining its ranking. Zac Robinson returns as the Falcons’ offensive coordinator with a young quarterback and quality skill players. 

While early support favored the Bucs – the Falcons reached +2.5 at one point – recent betting has favored Atlanta. 

The line moving back in Atlanta’s direction gives me confidence. Plus, history suggests it’s a good spot to back the Falcons. 

Since 2005, home divisional dogs in Weeks 1-3 are 66-38-3 ATS (63.5%). At +2 or shorter: 11-5-1 ATS. 

Further, Baker Mayfield is only 8-7 ATS as a favorite with the Buccaneers, including 4-3 at -4 or shorter. 

Colts vs Dolphins Prediction: Dolphins Moneyline (-105)

Based on the Dolphins’ successful offensive record late last season with Tagovailoa, my Colts vs Dolphins prediction is the Dolphins Moneyline (). 

Miami gets into trouble when anyone besides Tagovailoa runs the offense. Since Tagovailoa joined the league in 2020, the Dolphins are 47-37 SU:

• With Tagovailoa starting: 38-24
• With everyone else starting: 9-13

Tyler Huntley started the meeting against Indianapolis last season, with Miami blowing a lead in a 16-10 loss. 

In six full games last season without Tagovailoa, the offense proved anemic. The qualifying games: Weeks 3-5, Week 7 and Weeks 17-18. 

From Weeks 3-7, Miami ranked 32nd in offensive EPA per play and 31st in offensive success rate. In the final two games, Miami finished 28th in both categories. 

Now let’s examine Weeks 8-16. In those games following Tagovailoa’s return from injury, Miami leaped to eighth in EPA per play and third in offensive success rate. 

In 2023, when Tagovailoa played the full season, Miami finished second in offensive DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Whether it’s Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones at quarterback for Indianapolis, I don’t trust the Colts offense to keep up with the complete version of Miami’s offense. 

Last season, Indianapolis ranked 20th in offensive DVOA. In the prior campaign, they finished 13th. 

Either way, the offense carries a lower ceiling than Miami’s, barring another Tagovailoa injury. 

Plus, history suggests it’s a good spot to back the Dolphins based on the consensus line. 

Since 2004, road dogs in games 1-2 are 84-38-5 ATS (68.9%), assuming two factors:

• Both teams failed to reach the postseason the prior year
• The underdog won between 4 and 8 games the prior season

When those dogs fall between a PK and +1.5 – Miami is currently +1.5 on the consensus – they are 11-4 ATS. 

Patriots vs Raiders Prediction: Raiders Spread (+2.5, -105)

Based on Drake Maye’s inexperience as a favorite and the previous success of underdogs against bad teams, my Patriots vs Raiders prediction is the Raiders Spread (+2.5, ). 

Pete Carroll has previously excelled as a market underdog. For his career, he’s 52-34-3 ATS (60.5%) in that spot, including 24-16-3 at +3 or shorter. 

He inherits a Raiders team that should take a big step forward defensively in 2025. 

Two seasons ago, the Raiders ranked eighth in defensive DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. Last season, Las Vegas dropped to 18th. 

The drop makes sense when you consider Las Vegas went from the 18th-hardest schedule of offenses in 2023 to the sixth-hardest in 2025. 

Additionally, only the Lions lost more adjusted games to injuries on defense than Las Vegas last season. 

From a matchup standpoint, the Raiders’ defensive line should wreak havoc on New England’s offensive line. 

Per ESPN, the Raiders finished 10th in pass-rush win rate and 12th in run-stop win rate. New England finished 31st and 32nd in the corresponding offensive rankings. 

While I’m bullish on New England’s season-long prospects improving the offense, this remains a team that ranked 30th in offensive DVOA last season. 

Plus, New England closed a market favorite in exactly ZERO GAMES last season. Now it’s sitting on a key number? That further fuels my interest in the Raiders. 

History suggests it’s a good spot to back Las Vegas as well. 

Since 2004, road underdogs in the first two games of the season are 84-38-5 ATS (68.9%), assuming two factors:

• Both teams missed the postseason the prior year
• The underdog finished with 4-8 wins in the prior season

Bills vs Ravens Prediction: Ravens Moneyline (-115)

Based on Lamar Jackson’s record at short numbers and the Bills’ defensive injuries, my Bills vs Ravens prediction is the Ravens Moneyline (). 

As time has passed, my interest in Baltimore has increased. 

The divisional round matchup between these teams is worth considering. Baltimore’s offense produced two results: score or turnover. 

They did it without Zay Flowers. They’ll also play a Bills defense featuring myriad injuries to the secondary. 

Plus, Buffalo’s defense proved more opportunistic than good last year. Here are their rankings last year in EPA per play and success rate, both including and excluding turnovers:

• Turnovers Included: 12th, 16th
• Turnovers Excluded: 28th, 19th

If the turnovers dry up for Buffalo, I seriously question how it limits Baltimore’s offense. Since 2021, Baltimore has produced the best offensive DVOA percentage of any team, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Jackson owns a 9-2 SU record between -125 and +144, further fueling my interest in the Ravens on Sunday night. 

Seahawks vs 49ers Prediction: Seahawks Spread (+2.5, -110)

Based on San Francisco’s offensive injuries and the historical record of early divisional dogs, my Seahawks vs 49ers prediction is the Seahawks Spread (+2.5, ). 

This game presents an interesting handicapping challenge. For the entire season, I’m lower than market perception on the Seahawks. 

But maybe Week 1 presents a buy opportunity. San Francisco remains without Brandon Aiyuk. Save for Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, the defense carries a bunch of question marks. 

Yet, San Francisco has gained support in the market. Since the market opened, the 49ers have moved a point from the market open. 

Historically, that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Week 1 dogs that missed the postseason AND saw at least a rise in one point from market open are 25-6 ATS since ‘05. 

Another method to consider is that divisional dogs tend to perform well early in the year. 

Since ‘05, divisional dogs that missed the postseason are 62-23-3 (72.9%) ATS, assuming the previous head-to-head margin falls between -13 and +4. 

Just in Week 1: 36-7-1 ATS. 

As a result, I like the Seahawks to cover the number as home underdogs. 

NFL Week 1 Picks: Public Consensus

As of September 2, six games have seen one side draw at least 70% of bets placed to cover the spread:

• Denver Broncos (-8): 84% of bets placed
• Philadelphia Eagles (-8): 77% of bets placed
• Arizona Cardinals (-6.5): 77% of bets placed
• Detroit Lions (+2.5): 74% of bets placed
• Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5): 73% of bets placed
• San Francisco 49ers (-2.5): 72% of bets placed

Get additional NFL public betting data on all Week 1 games for both bets placed and money wagered percentages. Additionally, betting splits for the Super Bowl odds at BetMGM.