Philadelphia EaglesWashington Commanders

Eagles vs Commanders Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 16

BetMGM Betting Dec 19, 2025, 6:00 PM

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FILE - FedEx Field, home of the Washington Commanders NFL football team, is shown before the start of a football game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders, Sunday, Sept. 25, 2022, in Landover, Md. A group led by Josh Harris and Mitchell Rales that includes Magic Johnson has an agreement in principle to buy the NFL's Washington Commanders from longtime owner Dan Snyder for a North American professional sports team record $6 billion, according to a person with knowledge of the situation. The person spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity Thursday, April 13, 2023, because the deal had not been announced. (AP Photo/Nick Wass, File)

(AP Photo/Nick Wass)

The Eagles are -6.5 point favorites vs the Commanders
Total (Over/Under): 44.5 points
Watch this game on FOX | FOXD | NFL+

The Philadelphia Eagles (9-5-0) visit Northwest Stadium to take on the Washington Commanders (4-10-0) on Dec. 20. Kickoff is scheduled for 5:00pm EST in Landover, MD.

The Eagles are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-110).

The Eagles vs. Commanders Over/Under is 44.5 total points for the game.

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Eagles vs. Commanders Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Eagles vs. Commanders Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Eagles will win this game with 71.9% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Eagles vs Commanders Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Commanders will cover the spread with 52.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Eagles players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Eagles Player Prop Bets Today

Jalen Hurts has hit the Carries Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.65 Units / 47% ROI)
Saquon Barkley has hit the Longest Rush Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.70 Units / 61% ROI)
Jalen Hurts has hit the Interceptions Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+7.85 Units / 23% ROI)
DeVonta Smith has hit the Longest Reception Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.70 Units / 52% ROI)
Jalen Hurts has hit the Longest Rush Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.85 Units / 52% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Commanders players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Commanders Player Prop Best Bets Today

Jaylin Lane has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.50 Units / 58% ROI)
Jacory Croskey-Merritt has hit the Longest Reception Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.52 Units / 51% ROI)
Jacory Croskey-Merritt has hit the Receptions Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+6.30 Units / 38% ROI)
Jacory Croskey-Merritt has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.10 Units / 36% ROI)
Jacory Croskey-Merritt has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 88% ROI)

Eagles Best Bets:

The Philadelphia Eagles have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.25 Units / 35% ROI)
The Philadelphia Eagles have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.35 Units / 26% ROI)
The Philadelphia Eagles have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 8 away games (+4.90 Units / 57% ROI)
The Philadelphia Eagles have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 22 games (+4.50 Units / 13% ROI)
The Philadelphia Eagles have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 21 games (+4.45 Units / 12% ROI)

Commanders Best Bets:

The Washington Commanders have covered the 2H Spread in 14 of their last 20 games (+6.94 Units / 28% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have hit the 2H Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+5.84 Units / 56% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+4.80 Units / 44% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+3.15 Units / 14% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 13 of their last 22 games (+2.85 Units / 11% ROI)

Eagles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Eagles are 8-6 (+1.4 Units / 9.09% ROI).

Eagles are 9-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.2 Units / -8.61% ROI
Eagles are 5-9 when betting the Over for -4.9 Units / -31.82% ROI
Eagles are 9-5 when betting the Under for +3.5 Units / ROI

Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders are 5-9 (-4.8 Units / -31.68% ROI).

Commanders are 4-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.9 Units / -38.76% ROI
Commanders are 7-6 when betting the Over for +0.4 Units / 2.6% ROI
Commanders are 6-7 when betting the Under for -1.7 Units / -11.04% ROI

Philadelphia Eagles: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders

The Commanders threw the ball 33% of the time (19 Pass Attempts/58 plays) in Week 15 — 3rd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 51%.

The Commanders have averaged -0.16 epa per play on first drive of the game this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.03.

The Commanders have scored on 21% of their drives (3/14) on first drive of the game this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Commanders have run successful plays on 63% of pass attempts on play action passes this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 52%.

Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles

The Commanders defense has allowed 7.9 yards per dropback (1,101 yards/140 attempts) when targeted at a depth of 1-5 yards this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.6.

The Commanders defense has allowed a passer rating of 138.5 open coverage (206 Pass Attempts) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 121.2.

The Commanders defense has allowed successful plays on 59% of plays first read passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 52%.

The Commanders defense has allowed first downs on 41% of pass attempts this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 34%.

Additional Matchup Notes for Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders