- The Steelers are -3.5 point favorites vs the Dolphins
- Total (Over/Under): 42 points
- Watch this game on ESPN | ESPD
The Miami Dolphins (6-7-0) visit Acrisure Stadium to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6-0) on Dec. 15. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EST in Pittsburgh, PA.
The Steelers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-105).
The Dolphins vs. Steelers Over/Under is 42 total points for the game.
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Dolphins vs. Steelers Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Dolphins | +3.5 -115 | 42 -110 | 155 |
| Steelers | -3.5 -105 | 42 -110 | -190 |
Dolphins vs. Steelers Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Steelers will win this game with 62.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Dolphins vs Steelers Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Dolphins will cover the spread with 55.2% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Dolphins Player Prop Bets Today
- Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.55 Units / 49% ROI)
- Devon Achane has hit the Carries Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.95 Units / 70% ROI)
- Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Completions Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.90 Units / 42% ROI)
- Devon Achane has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.85 Units / 66% ROI)
- Ollie Gordon II has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.65 Units / 53% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Steelers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Steelers Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Jonnu Smith has hit the Longest Reception Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.85 Units / 73% ROI)
- DK Metcalf has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.45 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jonnu Smith has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- DK Metcalf has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.15 Units / 30% ROI)
- Calvin Austin III has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 89% ROI)
Dolphins Best Bets:
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.30 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 games (+5.90 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+5.38 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+4.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 20 games (+4.70 Units / 18% ROI)
Steelers Best Bets:
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+9.65 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 2Q Spread in their last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+4.90 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+4.45 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.40 Units / 29% ROI)
Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins are 7-6 (+0.4 Units / 2.77% ROI).
- Dolphins are 6-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.7 Units / 16.41% ROI
- Dolphins are 7-5 when betting the Over for +1.5 Units / 10.49% ROI
- Dolphins are 5-7 when betting the Under for -2.7 Units / ROI
Steelers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Steelers are 6-7 (-1.55 Units / -11.03% ROI).
- Steelers are 7-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.7 Units / 3.59% ROI
- Steelers are 7-6 when betting the Over for +0.4 Units / 2.8% ROI
- Steelers are 6-7 when betting the Under for -1.7 Units / -11.89% ROI
Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers
Dolphins are 5-1 (.833) when the opposing team converts less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns (T-6th-best in NFL) and just .143 when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season (T-7th-worst in NFL).
The Dolphins are winless (0-3) vs top 10 pass offenses this season They play the Steelers in Week 15 (Ranks 27th in passing offense).
The Dolphins are winless (0-4) whe trailing at the end of the first half this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .240.
The Dolphins are 1-6 (.143) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — T-7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .396.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins have averaged -0.93 epa per play against tight coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.52.
The Dolphins have averaged 12.4 yards per play on first drive of the game since Week 11 — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.4.
The Dolphins have converted fourth downs on just 3 of 8 plays (38%) in short yardage situations this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 62%.
The Dolphins have thrown the ball 36% of the time (64 Pass Attempts/176 plays) since Week 11 — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 52%.
Additional Matchup Notes for Miami Dolphins vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Dolphins have averaged -0.93 epa per play against tight coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.52.
The Dolphins have averaged 12.4 yards per play on first drive of the game since Week 11 — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.4.
The Dolphins have converted fourth downs on just 3 of 8 plays (38%) in short yardage situations this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 62%.
The Dolphins have thrown the ball 36% of the time (64 Pass Attempts/176 plays) since Week 11 — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 52%.
Dolphins are 5-1 (.833) when the opposing team converts less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns (T-6th-best in NFL) and just .143 when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season (T-7th-worst in NFL).
The Dolphins are winless (0-3) vs top 10 pass offenses this season They play the Steelers in Week 15 (Ranks 27th in passing offense).
The Dolphins are winless (0-4) whe trailing at the end of the first half this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .240.
The Dolphins are 1-6 (.143) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — T-7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .396.
Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats
Dolphins are 5-1 (.833) when the opposing team converts less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns (T-6th-best in NFL) and just .143 when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season (T-7th-worst in NFL).
The Dolphins are winless (0-3) vs top 10 pass offenses this season They play the Steelers in Week 15 (Ranks 27th in passing offense).
The Dolphins are winless (0-4) whe trailing at the end of the first half this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .240.
The Dolphins are 1-6 (.143) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — T-7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .396.
Pittsburgh Steelers Offense: Important Stats
The Dolphins have averaged -0.93 epa per play against tight coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.52.
The Dolphins have averaged 12.4 yards per play on first drive of the game since Week 11 — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.4.
The Dolphins have converted fourth downs on just 3 of 8 plays (38%) in short yardage situations this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 62%.
The Dolphins have thrown the ball 36% of the time (64 Pass Attempts/176 plays) since Week 11 — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 52%.
Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats
Dolphins are 5-1 (.833) when the opposing team converts less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns (T-6th-best in NFL) and just .143 when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season (T-7th-worst in NFL).
The Dolphins are winless (0-3) vs top 10 pass offenses this season They play the Steelers in Week 15 (Ranks 27th in passing offense).
The Dolphins are winless (0-4) whe trailing at the end of the first half this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .240.
The Dolphins are 1-6 (.143) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — T-7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .396.
Pittsburgh Steelers Defense: Important Stats
The Dolphins have averaged -0.93 epa per play against tight coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.52.
The Dolphins have averaged 12.4 yards per play on first drive of the game since Week 11 — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.4.
The Dolphins have converted fourth downs on just 3 of 8 plays (38%) in short yardage situations this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 62%.
The Dolphins have thrown the ball 36% of the time (64 Pass Attempts/176 plays) since Week 11 — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 52%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
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