Dolphins vs Panthers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 5

BetMGM Betting Oct 01, 2025, 11:09 AM

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Fans stand for the national anthem before an NFL football game between the Carolina Panthers and the New Orleans Saints Monday, Sept. 18, 2023, in Charlotte, N.C. (AP Photo/Rusty Jones)

(AP Photo/Rusty Jones)

The Panthers are +1.5 point favorites vs the Dolphins
Total (Over/Under): 44.5 points
Watch this game on FOX

The Miami Dolphins (1-3-0) visit Bank of America Stadium to take on the Carolina Panthers (1-3-0) on Oct. 5. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Charlotte, NC.

The Panthers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at +1.5 (-110).

The Dolphins vs. Panthers Over/Under is 44.5 total points for the game.

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Dolphins vs. Panthers Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Dolphins	-1.5 -110	44.5 -110	-120
Panthers	+1.5 -110	44.5 -110	100

Dolphins vs. Panthers Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Panthers will win this game with 64.2% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Dolphins vs Panthers Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Panthers will cover the spread with 57.8% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Dolphins Player Prop Bets Today

Devon Achane has hit the Carries Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+5.90 Units / 30% ROI)
Nick Westbrook has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Malik Washington has hit the Receptions Over in 5 of his last 6 away games (+4.46 Units / 56% ROI)
Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Passing Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 away games (+3.85 Units / 57% ROI)
Devon Achane has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 10 away games (+3.65 Units / 32% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Panthers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Panthers Player Prop Best Bets Today

Bryce Young has hit the TD Passes Over in 9 of his last 14 games (+6.35 Units / 36% ROI)
David Moore has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.00 Units / 51% ROI)
Rico Dowdle has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.25 Units / 28% ROI)
Bryce Young has hit the Completions Under in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.90 Units / 34% ROI)
Rico Dowdle has hit the Carries Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.30 Units / 27% ROI)

Dolphins Best Bets:

The Miami Dolphins have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.20 Units / 31% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+4.78 Units / 16% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+4.70 Units / 20% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have covered the 1Q Spread in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.40 Units / 19% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 18 games (+3.60 Units / 14% ROI)

Panthers Best Bets:

The Carolina Panthers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.85 Units / 47% ROI)
The Carolina Panthers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+7.45 Units / 34% ROI)
The Carolina Panthers have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)
The Carolina Panthers have hit the 1H Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.95 Units / 46% ROI)
The Carolina Panthers have covered the 3Q Spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.90 Units / 42% ROI)

Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins are 2-2 (-0.2 Units / -4.44% ROI).

Dolphins are 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.35 Units / -47.96% ROI
Dolphins are 3-1 when betting the Over for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
Dolphins are 1-3 when betting the Under for -2.3 Units / ROI

Panthers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Panthers are 2-2 (-0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI).

Panthers are 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.1 Units / -27.5% ROI
Panthers are 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
Panthers are 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI

Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the Carolina Panthers

The Dolphins have faced a blitz just 9% of the time since the 2024 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Dolphins have a third down conversion rate of 42% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

The Dolphins have averaged -0.56 epa per play on play action passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.09.

The Dolphins have started 4 drives inside their own 20 yard line this season — fewest in NFL.

Carolina Panthers: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins

The Panthers have averaged -0.17 epa per play on motion plays this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.03.

The Panthers have turned the ball over on downs 5 times this season — 3rd-most in NFL.

The Panthers have gone three and out on 10% of their drives this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 22%.

The Panthers have scored on 23% of their drives (5/22) in the 1st half this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Additional Matchup Notes for Miami Dolphins vs. Carolina Panthers