- The Bills are -11.5 point favorites vs the Dolphins
- Total (Over/Under): 50.5 points
- Watch this game on Amazon
The Miami Dolphins (0-2-0) visit Highmark Stadium to take on the Buffalo Bills (2-0-0) on Sep. 18. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in Orchard Park, NY.
The Bills are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -11.5 (-105).
The Dolphins vs. Bills Over/Under is 50.5 total points for the game.
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Dolphins vs. Bills Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Dolphins | +11.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | 600 |
| Bills | -11.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | -900 |
Dolphins vs. Bills Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Bills will win this game with 87.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Dolphins vs Bills Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bills will cover the spread with 62.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Dolphins Player Prop Bets Today
- Devon Achane has hit the Carries Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- Nick Westbrook has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Completions Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.30 Units / 33% ROI)
- Tyreek Hill has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 17 games (+4.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- Devon Achane has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 11 of his last 17 games (+4.20 Units / 22% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bills players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Bills Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Josh Palmer has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.50 Units / 49% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Interceptions Under in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- Elijah Moore has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 games (+5.30 Units / 83% ROI)
- Elijah Moore has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.25 Units / 29% ROI)
- Ty Johnson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 59% ROI)
Dolphins Best Bets:
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.05 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 11 of their last 19 games (+2.30 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 17 games (+2.10 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 17 games (+1.60 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 20 games (+1.10 Units / 5% ROI)
Bills Best Bets:
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2H Moneyline in 12 of their last 14 games (+10.02 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 11 games at home (+8.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2H Spread in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.27 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.85 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+6.75 Units / 28% ROI)
Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins are 0-2 (-2.2 Units / -100% ROI).
- Dolphins are 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.35 Units / -100% ROI
- Dolphins are 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Dolphins are 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / ROI
Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills are 2-0 (+2 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Bills are 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 54.79% ROI
- Bills are 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Bills are 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills
The Dolphins were winless (0-6) when allowing 27 or more points last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .183.
The Dolphins were winless (0-5) vs top 10 run offenses last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .335.
The Dolphins were 1-8 (.111) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .389.
The Dolphins are winless (0-6) vs top 10 run offenses since the 2024 season They play the Bills in Week 3 (Ranks fourth in rushing offense).
Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins
The Bills were undefeated (8-0) at home last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .524.
The Bills are 5-1 (.833) vs top 10 run defenses since the 2024 season They play the Dolphins in Week 3 (Ranks 24th in rushing defense).
The Bills are 3-1 (.750) vs top 10 offenses since the 2024 season They play the Dolphins in Week 3 (Ranks 22nd in total offense).
The Bills were 2-1 (.667) vs top 10 offenses last season — T-4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .318.
Additional Matchup Notes for Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
The Bills have scored on 60.9% of their drives this season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Dolphins defense has allowed scores on 70.6% of opponent drives this season — worst in NFL.
The Bills have run 55.6% offensive plays on their opponent’s side of the field this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed their opponents to run 60.7% of plays in their territory this season — worst in NFL.
The Bills have scored on 58.3% of their drives in the second half this season — T-3rd-best in NFL. The Dolphins defense has allowed scores on 55.6% of opponent drives in the second half this season — 4th-worst in NFL.
The Dolphins have run just 5.1% offensive plays in the red zone this season — worst in NFL. The Bills have allowed their opponent to run just 8.2% of plays in the red zone this season — 3rd-best in NFL.
The Dolphins have averaged just -0.67 epa per play against tight coverage since the 2024 season — worst in NFL. The Bills have allowed just -0.62 epa per play with tight coverage since the 2024 season — 2nd-best in NFL.
The Dolphins ran just 1.9% offensive plays in the red zone last week — worst in NFL. The Bills allowed their opponent to run just 8.5% of plays in the red zone last week — 5th-best in NFL.
Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats
The Dolphins have run successful plays on 0% of plays on play action passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
The Dolphins have faced a blitz 100 times since the 2024 season — fewest in NFL.
The Dolphins have averaged -0.91 epa per play on first drive of the game this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.10.
The Dolphins have 4 of 28 (14%) first downs have come on the ground (14%) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 36%.
Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats
The Bills have run 32% of their plays in the red zone in the 1st quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 12%.
The Bills started 25 drives inside opposing territory last season — 2nd-most in NFL.
The Bills averaged 7.1 yards per play on motion plays last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 5.8.
The Bills have rushed for 6 TDs this season — most in NFL.
Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats
The Dolphins defense allowed -0.26 epa per play on first drive of the game last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.
The Dolphins defense has allowed successful plays on 53% of plays this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Dolphins defense has allowed scores on 71% of opponent drives (12/17) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Dolphins defense has allowed successful plays on 61% of pass attempts this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats
The Bills defense have allowed 4 TDs that were 20+ yards this season — most in NFL.
The Bills defense did not allow a third down conversion in Week 2 — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.
The Bills defense has forced 5 fumbles this season — most in NFL.
The Bills defense have allowed 15.5 yards per play against play action passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7.4.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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