Cowboys vs. Chiefs: NFL Week 13 Odds, Prediction

The Chiefs will try for a second straight win on Thanksgiving against the surging Cowboys. 

Kansas City captured a 23-20 win over the Colts on Sunday. It marks Kansas City’s first win by one score this season as Andy Reid’s team improved to 6-5. 

Dallas captured a second straight win with a 24-21 win over the Eagles at home. Still, Dallas sits at 5-5-1 on the year, well adrift of the 8-3 Eagles in the NFC East. 

Bet on Cowboys vs. Chiefs and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds. 

Cowboys vs. Chiefs: NFL Week 13 Odds

Cowboys vs. Chiefs Prediction

Based on Kansas City’s bad luck in the red zone on Sunday and the public’s love for the Cowboys, my Cowboys vs Chiefs prediction is the Chiefs Spread (-3.5, -105). 

An argument exists that Kansas City should have captured a bigger margin on Sunday. The offense moved the ball well and produced six red zone trips against the Colts. 

However, the team converted only one of those six trips into a touchdown. A penalty nullified a Travis Kelce touchdown, and Kareem Hunt fumbled inside Indy’s 20-yard line. 

If the Chiefs produce a bigger margin of victory, this spread likely looks a lot different. Additionally, Dallas needed turnover luck to come from behind against the Eagles. 

Early betting heavily favors the Cowboys. As of Monday morning, 57% of bets and 72% of money wagered are on the Cowboys to cover. 

Recently, public underdogs have struggled to cover. Since last season, dogs receiving over 55% of bets priced between +2 and +4 are 5-20-1 ATS, assuming two factors:

• The team closed a market underdog in its last game
• The game is a non-division game

All of that said, I want to wait and see if this line drops below the key number. As much as I like Kansas City, it’s still a short week road game over an overtime effort. 

That could help mitigate the fact that Dallas is playing its third game in 10 days. 

But I believe there’s a bigger gap between these teams than the market suggests. Entering Week 13, Kansas City ranks fifth in DVOA against the eight-hardest schedule. 

Meanwhile, Dallas ranks 18th against the 25th-hardest schedule. 

Given those factors, I predict Kansas City covers the number on short rest. 

Betting Cowboys vs. Chiefs: NFL Public Betting

Check back later in the week for Cowboys vs Chiefs public betting data.