Cowboys vs Jets Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 5

BetMGM Betting Oct 01, 2025, 11:04 AM

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Fans arrive at MetLife Stadium before an NFL football game between the New York Jets and the Buffalo Bills Sunday, Sept. 8, 2019, in East Rutherford, N.J.

(AP Photo/Seth Wenig)

The Cowboys are -2.5 point favorites vs the Jets
Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
Watch this game on FOX

The Dallas Cowboys (1-2-1) visit MetLife Stadium to take on the New York Jets (0-4-0) on Oct. 5. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in East Rutherford, NJ.

The Cowboys are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-115).

The Cowboys vs. Jets Over/Under is 47.5 total points for the game.

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Cowboys vs. Jets Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Cowboys	-2.5 -115	47.5 -118	-150
Jets	+2.5 -105	47.5 -110	125

Cowboys vs. Jets Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Cowboys will win this game with 84.5% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Cowboys vs Jets Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Cowboys will cover the spread with 71.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Cowboys players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Cowboys Player Prop Bets Today

Brandon Aubrey has hit the Field Goals Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+6.65 Units / 24% ROI)
Miles Sanders has hit the Carries Under in his last 5 games (+5.20 Units / 81% ROI)
Jake Ferguson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.25 Units / 25% ROI)
Dak Prescott has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.95 Units / 44% ROI)
George Pickens has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+3.95 Units / 22% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Jets players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Jets Player Prop Best Bets Today

Braelon Allen has hit the Carries Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 52% ROI)
Braelon Allen has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 88% ROI)
Breece Hall has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.85 Units / 64% ROI)
Breece Hall has hit the Carries Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.55 Units / 31% ROI)
Justin Fields has hit the Interceptions Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 73% ROI)

Cowboys Best Bets:

The Dallas Cowboys have covered the 2Q Spread in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.35 Units / 43% ROI)
The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+6.40 Units / 34% ROI)
The Dallas Cowboys have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)
The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+3.90 Units / 18% ROI)
The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 away games (+2.80 Units / 33% ROI)

Jets Best Bets:

The New York Jets have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.50 Units / 43% ROI)
The New York Jets have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.55 Units / 43% ROI)
The New York Jets have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+5.05 Units / 24% ROI)
The New York Jets have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.80 Units / 41% ROI)
The New York Jets have covered the 3Q Spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+4.50 Units / 46% ROI)

Cowboys Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Cowboys are 2-2 (-0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI).

Cowboys are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.25 Units / -22.12% ROI
Cowboys are 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
Cowboys are 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / ROI

Jets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Jets are 2-2 (-0.1 Units / -2.33% ROI).

Jets are 0-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -4 Units / -100% ROI
Jets are 3-1 when betting the Over for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
Jets are 1-3 when betting the Under for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI

Dallas Cowboys: Keys to the Game vs. the New York Jets

The Cowboys have run the ball on 11% of plays (5 carries/47 plays) on 3rd down this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 27%.

The Cowboys have thrown the ball 83% of the time (10 Pass Attempts/12 plays) on 3rd and short this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Cowboys have committed 12 turnovers in the red zone since the 2024 season — most in NFL.

The Cowboys have run the ball on 17% of plays (2 carries/12 plays) on 3rd and short this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 52%.

New York Jets: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Cowboys

60% of the plays run against the Jets have been in their own territory this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The Jets defense has not allowed a third down conversion in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 35%.

The Jets defense have averaged 36.3 defensive penalty yards per game (762/21) since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 21.8.

The Jets defense has sacked opponents 14 times in the red zone since the 2024 season — most in NFL.

Additional Matchup Notes for Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Jets