Commanders vs Vikings Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 14

BetMGM Betting Dec 07, 2025, 9:49 AM

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Fans cheer during the Skol chant before an NFL football game between the Minnesota Vikings and Atlanta Falcons, Sunday, Dec. 8, 2024 in Minneapolis. Minnesota won 42-21. (AP Photo/Stacy Bengs)

(AP Photo/Stacy Bengs)

The Vikings are -1.5 point favorites vs the Commanders
Total (Over/Under): 42 points
Watch this game on FOX

The Washington Commanders (3-9-0) visit U.S. Bank Stadium to take on the Minnesota Vikings (4-8-0) on Dec. 7. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Minneapolis, MN.

The Vikings are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Commanders vs. Vikings Over/Under is 42 total points for the game.

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Commanders vs. Vikings Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Commanders	+1.5 -110	42 -110	105
Vikings	-1.5 -110	42 -110	-125

Commanders vs. Vikings Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Commanders will win this game with 53.4% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Commanders vs Vikings Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Commanders will cover the spread with 53.3% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Commanders players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Commanders Player Prop Bets Today

Jaylin Lane has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.50 Units / 58% ROI)
Jacory Croskey-Merritt has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 88% ROI)
Jayden Daniels has hit the Interceptions Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.95 Units / 57% ROI)
Jayden Daniels has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.85 Units / 64% ROI)
Jacory Croskey-Merritt has hit the Longest Reception Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.52 Units / 47% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Vikings players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Vikings Player Prop Best Bets Today

Jordan Mason has hit the Carries Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.70 Units / 50% ROI)
T.J. Hockenson has hit the Longest Reception Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.45 Units / 39% ROI)
Aaron Jones has hit the Carries Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.10 Units / 32% ROI)
Jordan Mason has hit the Longest Rush Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 90% ROI)
Jalen Nailor has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 86% ROI)

Commanders Best Bets:

The Washington Commanders have covered the 2H Spread in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.49 Units / 37% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have hit the 2H Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 games (+5.34 Units / 24% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have covered the 2Q Spread in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.50 Units / 34% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 away games (+3.30 Units / 25% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 11 away games (+3.00 Units / 22% ROI)

Vikings Best Bets:

The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.10 Units / 34% ROI)
The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.60 Units / 38% ROI)
The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.55 Units / 37% ROI)
The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+2.72 Units / 30% ROI)
The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.65 Units / 26% ROI)

Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders are 4-8 (-4.7 Units / -36.15% ROI).

Commanders are 3-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.1 Units / -45.22% ROI
Commanders are 6-5 when betting the Over for +0.5 Units / 3.79% ROI
Commanders are 5-6 when betting the Under for -1.6 Units / ROI

Vikings Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Vikings are 4-8 (-4.8 Units / -36.36% ROI).

Vikings are 4-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.65 Units / -17.32% ROI
Vikings are 7-5 when betting the Over for +1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI
Vikings are 5-7 when betting the Under for -2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI

Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Minnesota Vikings

The Commanders were 5-3 (.625) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times last season — 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .249.

The Commanders were 1-2 (.333) when passing for less than 200 yards last season — T-10th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .422.

The Commanders were 8-2 (.800) after a win last season — 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .588.

The Commanders were 7-2 (.778) at home last season — T-5th-best in NFL; League Avg: .524.

Minnesota Vikings: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders

The Commanders ran 22% of their plays in the red zone in the 1st quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 12%.

The Commanders converted fourth downs on 20 of 23 plays (87%) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 57%.

The Commanders averaged 0.56 epa per play against a stacked front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.09.

The Commanders ran successful plays on 51% of rush attempts last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Additional Matchup Notes for Washington Commanders vs. Minnesota Vikings