- The Packers are -3.5 point favorites vs the Commanders
- Total (Over/Under): 48 points
- Watch this game on Amazon
The Washington Commanders (1-0-0) visit Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers (1-0-0) on Sep. 11. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in Green Bay, WI.
The Packers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-105).
The Commanders vs. Packers Over/Under is 48 total points for the game.
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Commanders vs. Packers Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Commanders | +3.5 -115 | 48 -110 | 155 |
| Packers | -3.5 -105 | 48 -110 | -190 |
Commanders vs. Packers Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Packers will win this game with 64.6% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Commanders vs Packers Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Commanders will cover the spread with 69.9% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Packers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Packers Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Jordan Love has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.80 Units / 60% ROI)
- Jordan Love has hit the Interceptions Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.55 Units / 72% ROI)
- Dontayvion Wicks has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.55 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jordan Love has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 89% ROI)
- Jayden Reed has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 42% ROI)
Packers Best Bets:
- The Green Bay Packers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.75 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Green Bay Packers have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games (+4.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Green Bay Packers have covered the 2H Spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+4.18 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Green Bay Packers have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games (+3.82 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Green Bay Packers have covered the 4Q Spread in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.70 Units / 31% ROI)
Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders are (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Commanders are 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 37.04% ROI
- Commanders are 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
- Commanders are 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / ROI
Packers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Packers are 1-0 (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Packers are 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 83.33% ROI
- Packers are 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
- Packers are 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Green Bay Packers
The Commanders were undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .566.
The Commanders were 8-2 (.800) after a win last season — 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .588.
The Commanders were 5-3 (.625) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times last season — 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .249.
The Commanders were 9-3 (.750) when not losing a fumble last season — 8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .582.
Green Bay Packers: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders
The Packers were 8-3 (.727) when rushing for 120 or more yards last season — T-9th-best in NFL. The Commanders allowed an average of 138.0 rushing yards per game last season — 4th-worst in NFL.
The Packers were 2-1 (.667) when not forcing a turnover last season — T-3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .292.
The Packers were 7-1 (.875) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent last season — T-5th-best in NFL; League Avg: .618.
The Packers were 1-3 (.250) when committing 60 or more yards in penalties last season — T-10th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .440.
Additional Matchup Notes for Washington Commanders vs. Green Bay Packers
The Packers ran 28.3% offensive plays in the red zone last week — best in NFL. The Commanders allowed their opponent to run 19.4% of plays in the red zone last week — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Packers scored on 43.6% of their drives in the fourth quarter last season — 5th-best in NFL. The Commanders defense allowed scores on 55.3% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter last season — worst in NFL.
The Packers were 8-3 (.727) when rushing for 120 or more yards last season — T-9th-best in NFL. The Commanders allowed an average of 138.0 rushing yards per game last season — 4th-worst in NFL.
The Commanders were successful on 57.9% of pass attempts on play action passes last season — 5th-best in NFL. The Packers allowed a success rate of 58.6% on pass attempts on play action passes last season — 5th-worst in NFL.
Washington Commanders Offense: Important Stats
The Commanders ran successful plays on 67% of plays on motion plays in Week 1 — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Commanders ran successful plays on 84% of rush attempts on motion plays in Week 1 — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Commanders started 10 drives inside their own 20 yard line in the 2nd half last season — fewest in NFL.
The Commanders ran 22% of their plays in the red zone in the 1st quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 12%.
Green Bay Packers Offense: Important Stats
The Packers converted late downs on 3 of 14 plays (21%) with 7-10 yards to go in Week 1 — best in NFL; League Avg: 7%.
The Packers ran 36% of their plays in the red zone in the 1st quarter in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL; League Avg: 14%.
The Packers converted late downs on just 10 of 245 plays (4%) with 7-10 yards to go last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 6%.
The Packers converted late downs on 2 of 16 plays (12%) with over 10 yards to go in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL; League Avg: 3%.
Washington Commanders Defense: Important Stats
The Commanders defense allowed scores on 56% of opponent drives (43/77) in the 2nd half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 37%.
The Commanders defense has allowed 4.3 TDs per interception (64 TDs allowed, and 15 INT) since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 1.9.
The Commanders defense allowed successful plays on 27% of pass attempts in Week 1 — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Commanders defense has allowed scores on 46% of opponent drives (82/178) in the 2nd half since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 35%.
Green Bay Packers Defense: Important Stats
The Packers defense allowed successful plays on 66% of pass attempts from their own territory in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Packers defense allowed a passer rating of just 40.6 on 3rd and long (78 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 83.1.
The Packers defense allowed successful plays on 12% of rush attempts on motion plays in Week 1 — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
Offenses facing the Packers targeted RBs 36% of the time (14 Pass Attempts/39 plays) in Week 1 — highest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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