Commanders vs Dolphins Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 11

BetMGM Betting Nov 15, 2025, 9:42 AM

min read

A Miami Dolphins football helmet sits on the grass during an NFL football game between the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins Sunday, Sept. 11, 2022, in Miami Gardens, Fla. (AP Photo/Doug Murray)

(AP Photo/Doug Murray)

The Commanders are +2.5 point favorites vs the Dolphins
Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
Watch this game on NFLN | NFL+

The Washington Commanders (3-7-0) visit Santiago Bernabeu Stadium to take on the Miami Dolphins (3-7-0) on Nov. 16. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:30am EST in Madrid, Spain.

The Commanders are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at +2.5 (-102).

The Commanders vs. Dolphins Over/Under is 47.5 total points for the game.

Bet now on Dolphins vs Commanders & all NFL games with BetMGM

Commanders vs. Dolphins Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Commanders	+2.5 -102	47.5 -110	130
Dolphins	-2.5 -118	47.5 -110	-155

Commanders vs. Dolphins Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Dolphins will win this game with 57.9% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Commanders vs Dolphins Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Commanders will cover the spread with 52.4% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Dolphins vs Commanders and all NFL games with BetMGM

Get a New Player Offer

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Commanders players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Commanders Player Prop Bets Today

Deebo Samuel has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.55 Units / 42% ROI)
Jaylin Lane has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.15 Units / 54% ROI)
Jacory Croskey-Merritt has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.60 Units / 49% ROI)
Jacory Croskey-Merritt has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.70 Units / 50% ROI)
Jacory Croskey-Merritt has hit the Longest Reception Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.52 Units / 47% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Dolphins Player Prop Best Bets Today

Ollie Gordon II has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.80 Units / 66% ROI)
Malik Washington has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.41 Units / 23% ROI)
Ollie Gordon II has hit the Carries Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.05 Units / 80% ROI)
Jaylen Waddle has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Malik Washington has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+4.70 Units / 46% ROI)

Commanders Best Bets:

The Washington Commanders have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.15 Units / 31% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have covered the 2H Spread in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.36 Units / 20% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.48 Units / 20% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 away games (+3.25 Units / 24% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have covered the 2Q Spread in 7 of their last 11 away games (+2.35 Units / 18% ROI)

Dolphins Best Bets:

The Miami Dolphins have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.00 Units / 32% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.30 Units / 35% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+6.85 Units / 38% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+6.10 Units / 30% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.80 Units / 65% ROI)

Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders are 3-7 (-4.6 Units / -42.59% ROI).

Commanders are 3-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.1 Units / -37.23% ROI
Commanders are 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.6 Units / 5.45% ROI
Commanders are 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / ROI

Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins are 5-5 (-0.5 Units / -4.5% ROI).

Dolphins are 3-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.3 Units / -2.7% ROI
Dolphins are 6-3 when betting the Over for +2.7 Units / 24.55% ROI
Dolphins are 3-6 when betting the Under for -3.6 Units / -32.73% ROI

Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins

The Commanders are winless (0-5) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .462.

The Commanders are winless (0-3) when rushing for less than 100 yards this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .308.

The Commanders are 1-7 (.125) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays this season — 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .411.

The Commanders are winless (0-5) when throwing at least 1 interception this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .348.

Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders

The Dolphins defense allowed 7 receptions for 20+ yards in Week 10 — most in NFL.

The Dolphins defense has allowed 113.1 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 151.3.

The Dolphins defense did not allow a rushing TD in Week 10 — T-fewest in NFL.

The Dolphins defense has allowed a passer rating of 99.2 when they have pressured the QB (44 Pass Attempts) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 51.8.

Additional Matchup Notes for Washington Commanders vs. Miami Dolphins