Los Angeles ChargersWashington Commanders

Commanders vs Chargers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 5

BetMGM Betting Oct 01, 2025, 11:12 AM

min read

An exterior view of SoFi Stadium before an NFL football game between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024, in Inglewood, Calif. (AP Photo/Eric Thayer)

(AP Photo/Eric Thayer)

The Chargers are -3 point favorites vs the Commanders
Total (Over/Under): 48 points
Watch this game on FOX

The Washington Commanders (2-2-0) visit SoFi Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Chargers (3-1-0) on Oct. 5. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EDT in Inglewood, CA.

The Chargers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-105).

The Commanders vs. Chargers Over/Under is 48 total points for the game.

Bet now on Chargers vs Commanders & all NFL games with BetMGM

Commanders vs. Chargers Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Commanders	+3 -115	48 -110	135
Chargers	-3 -105	48 -110	-160

Commanders vs. Chargers Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Commanders will win this game with 64.7% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Commanders vs Chargers Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Commanders will cover the spread with 59.6% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Chargers vs Commanders and all NFL games with BetMGM

Get a New Player Offer

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Commanders players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Commanders Player Prop Bets Today

Matt Gay has hit the Field Goals Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+7.60 Units / 36% ROI)
Jayden Daniels has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.85 Units / 67% ROI)
Jayden Daniels has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.25 Units / 28% ROI)
Jayden Daniels has hit the Interceptions Under in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.75 Units / 43% ROI)
Luke McCaffrey has hit the Receptions Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.75 Units / 54% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chargers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Chargers Player Prop Best Bets Today

Cameron Dicker has hit the Field Goals Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+7.00 Units / 27% ROI)
Justin Herbert has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.35 Units / 26% ROI)
Keenan Allen has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+5.15 Units / 43% ROI)
Justin Herbert has hit the Interceptions Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+5.15 Units / 20% ROI)
Will Dissly has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 85% ROI)

Commanders Best Bets:

The Washington Commanders have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.30 Units / 32% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have covered the 2Q Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.10 Units / 22% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+4.90 Units / 19% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have covered the 2H Spread in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.72 Units / 24% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.67 Units / 29% ROI)

Chargers Best Bets:

The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the 1H Spread in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.00 Units / 31% ROI)
The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+7.90 Units / 21% ROI)
The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the Spread in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.30 Units / 30% ROI)
The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2H Game Total Over in their last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 88% ROI)
The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.70 Units / 61% ROI)

Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders are 2-2 (-0.15 Units / -3.53% ROI).

Commanders are 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Commanders are 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
Commanders are 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / ROI

Chargers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chargers are 3-1 (+1.9 Units / 42.22% ROI).

Chargers are 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.7 Units / 9.93% ROI
Chargers are 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI
Chargers are 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI

Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers

The Commanders have run successful plays on 52% of rush attempts since the 2024 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Commanders have run successful plays on 65% of rush attempts in the 1st half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Commanders have run successful plays on 61% of rush attempts on motion plays this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Commanders have run 21% of their plays in the red zone in the 1st quarter since the 2024 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 12%.

Los Angeles Chargers: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders

The Chargers defense sacked opponents 6 times in Week 4 — T-most in NFL.

The Chargers defense has allowed a passer rating of just 38.5 against play action passes (20 Pass Attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 106.2.

The Chargers defense sacked opposing QBs on 22% of pass attempts (6/27) in Week 4 — best in NFL; League Avg: 6%.

The Chargers defense has allowed successful plays on 40% of pass attempts since the 2024 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

Additional Matchup Notes for Washington Commanders vs. Los Angeles Chargers