- The Colts are a 6.5-point international favorite against the Falcons.
- The Colts have won each of their last five games following a loss.
- My Colts vs Falcons prediction is for the Falcons (+5.5) to cover the spread.
The NFL goes international in Week 10 as the Colts “host” the Falcons in Berlin, Germany.
Indianapolis suffered only its second defeat of the season. Buoyed by six turnovers on offense – two more than their first eight games – the Colts lost 27-20 at Pittsburgh.
Atlanta fell to 3-5 with a narrow defeat to the Patriots. Raheem Morris’ team covered the spread as 5.5-point underdogs, but remains third in the NFC South.
Bet on Colts vs. Falcons and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
Colts vs. Falcons: NFL Week 10 Odds
Colts vs. Falcons Prediction
Based on the Falcons’ poor rush defense and the Colts’ success running the ball, my Colts vs Falcons prediction is the Atlanta Falcons Spread (+5.5, -110).
I’m not rushing to the window to bet on this game. Laying this many points with Daniel Jones feels dangerous, and the public is ALL OVER Indianapolis.
That leads me to consider the Falcons as a big underdog.
Pittsburgh showed that a decent pass rush can get to Jones. If there’s hope for the Falcons, it’s that the offense takes a lead and uses the pass rush to retain the advantage.
The glaring concern with the Falcons? Atlanta has struggled to stop the run.
Entering this matchup, Geoff Ulbrich’s defense ranks 24th in rush defense DVOA. Indianapolis ranks second in the corresponding offensive category, per ftnfantasy.com.
Interestingly, Atlanta’s best performance of the season came against a top-tier rushing attack.
As home dogs to Buffalo, the Falcons captured an outright win against the league’s best rushing attack.
Josh Allen’s turnovers contributed to that Atlanta win. Whether Jones’ turnovers continue is unknown, but Atlanta offers viability if the turnovers continue.
Offensively, I’m not sure what to make of Atlanta. The team ranks 23rd in offensive DVOA, having played a really easy defensive schedule.
Indy ranks 10th on defense, but has played the league’s second-easiest offensive schedule.
All of that creates enough unknowns to sit this game out. If there’s an angle to be had, it’s that fading the public interest has performed well this season.
As I write this on Monday morning, Indy has received 68% of bets to cover. This season, teams getting over 63% of bets to cover are 7-21 ATS.
Due to those factors, it’s Atlanta or nothing for me on Sunday.
Betting Colts vs. Falcons: NFL Public Betting
| Team | % of ATS Bets | % of ATS Money |
|---|---|---|
| Falcons (+6.5) | 18% | 20% |
| Colts (-6.5) | 82% | 80% |
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