- The Colts are a 1-point home favorite against the Dolphins.
- The Colts have won each of their last eight games as favorites against AFC opponents.
- My Colts vs Dolphins prediction is the Miami Dolphins moneyline (-110).
Two AFC teams off middling seasons meet in Week 1 as the Dolphins visit the Colts.Â
Both teams finished with eight wins last season, good for second in the AFC East and South, respectively.Â
For Miami, which made the playoffs the prior season, success came later in the year. After starting 2-6, the Dolphins finished 6-3, buoyed by Tua Tagovailoa’s return from injury.Â
Bet on Colts vs. Dolphins and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.Â
Colts vs. Dolphins: NFL Week 1 Odds
- Date: Sunday, September 7
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, IN)
Colts vs Dolphins Prediction
Based on the Dolphins’ successful offensive record late last season with Tagovailoa, my Colts vs Dolphins prediction is the Dolphins Moneyline (-110).Â
Miami gets into trouble when anyone besides Tagovailoa runs the offense. Since Tagovailoa joined the league in 2020, the Dolphins are 47-37 SU:
- With Tagovailoa starting: 38-24
- With everyone else starting: 9-13
Tyler Huntley started the meeting against Indianapolis last season, with Miami blowing a lead in a 16-10 loss.Â
In six full games last season without Tagovailoa, the offense proved anemic. The qualifying games: Weeks 3-5, Week 7 and Weeks 17-18.Â
From Weeks 3-7, Miami ranked 32nd in offensive EPA per play and 31st in offensive success rate. In the final two games, Miami finished 28th in both categories.Â
Now let’s examine Weeks 8-16. In those games following Tagovailoa’s return from injury, Miami leaped to eighth in EPA per play and third in offensive success rate.Â
In 2023, when Tagovailoa played the full season, Miami finished second in offensive DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com.Â
Whether it’s Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones at quarterback for Indianapolis, I don’t trust the Colts offense to keep up with the complete version of Miami’s offense.Â
Last season, Indianapolis ranked 20th in offensive DVOA. In the prior campaign, they finished 13th.Â
Either way, the offense carries a lower ceiling than Miami’s, barring another Tagovailoa injury.Â
Plus, history suggests it’s a good spot to back the Dolphins based on the consensus line.Â
Since 2004, road dogs in games 1-2 are 84-38-5 ATS (68.9%), assuming two factors:
- Both teams failed to reach the postseason the prior year
- The underdog won between 4 and 8 games the prior season
When those dogs fall between a PK and +1.5 – Miami is currently +1.5 on the consensus – they are 11-4 ATS.Â
Betting Colts vs Dolphins: NFL Public Betting
Data is reflective as of Tuesday, September 2.
| Team | Bets% (ATS) | Money% (ATS) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins (+1) | 62% | 50% | 78% | 83% |
| Colts (-1) | 38% | 50% | 22% | 17% |
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