Colts vs Titans Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NFL, Week 3

A stadium view of Tennessee Titans' Nissan Field as fans begin to arrive before an NFL football game against the ,Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday, Dec. 11, 2022, in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/Peter Joneleit)
(AP Photo/Peter Joneleit)
  • The Colts are -3.5 point favorites vs the Titans
  • Total (Over/Under): 43.5 points
  • Watch this game on CBS

The Indianapolis Colts (2-0-0) visit Nissan Stadium to take on the Tennessee Titans (0-2-0) on Sep. 21. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Nashville, TN.

The Colts are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-115).

The Colts vs. Titans Over/Under is 43.5 total points for the game.

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Colts vs. Titans Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Colts-3.5 -11543.5 -110-210
Titans +3.5 -10543.5 -110170

Colts vs. Titans Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Colts will win this game with 64.6% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Colts vs Titans Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Colts will cover the spread with 53.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Colts players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Colts Player Prop Bets Today

  • Jonathan Taylor has hit the Carries Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.70 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Jonathan Taylor has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.35 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Daniel Jones has hit the Completions Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.85 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Jonathan Taylor has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.35 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Jonathan Taylor has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 89% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Titans players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Titans Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Tony Pollard has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+6.25 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Calvin Ridley has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+3.60 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Chigoziem Okonkwo has hit the Receptions Over in 5 of his last 7 games at home (+3.45 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Van Jefferson has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.42 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Tyler Lockett has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 17 games (+3.30 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1H Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.35 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.85 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.35 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+4.30 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+3.90 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Tennessee Titans have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Tennessee Titans have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.85 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Tennessee Titans have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 17 games (+3.00 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Tennessee Titans have covered the 2H Spread in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.62 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Tennessee Titans have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 17 games (+2.60 Units / 14% ROI)

Colts Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Colts are 2-0 (+2 Units / 90.91% ROI).

  • Colts are 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.05 Units / 93.18% ROI
  • Colts are 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Colts are 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / ROI

Titans Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Titans are 1-1 (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).

  • Titans are 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -100% ROI
  • Titans are 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Titans are 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI

Indianapolis Colts: Keys to the Game vs. the Tennessee Titans

The Colts were 2-5 (.286) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays last season — 9th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .435.

The Colts were winless (0-4) vs top 10 offenses last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .318.

The Colts were 2-4 (.333) after a win last season — T-9th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .588.

The Colts were 7-3 (.700) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season — 9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .571.

Tennessee Titans: Keys to the Game vs. the Indianapolis Colts

The Titans were winless (0-12) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .399.

The Titans are winless (0-14) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .400.

The Titans were 1-7 (.125) at home last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .524.

The Titans are 3-10 (.231) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2024 season — T-8th-worst in NFL. The Colts have intercepted 19 passes since the 2024 season — T-2nd-most in NFL.

Additional Matchup Notes for Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans

The Titans have averaged just -0.36 epa per play against a light rush since the 2024 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Colts have allowed just -0.24 epa per play with a light rush since the 2024 season — 5th-best in NFL.

The Titans are 3-10 (.231) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2024 season — T-8th-worst in NFL. The Colts have intercepted 19 passes since the 2024 season — T-2nd-most in NFL.

The Colts have gone three and out on 0% of their drives this season — best in NFL. The Titans have forced three and outs on 8% of opponent drives this season — worst in NFL.

The Colts went three and out on 0% of their drives last week — best in NFL. The Titans forced three and outs on 9.1% of opponent drives last week — 3rd-worst in NFL.

Colts RBs have averaged 3.0 yards after contact per carry this season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Titans have allowed 3.8 yards after contact per carry this season — worst in NFL.

Indianapolis Colts Offense: Important Stats

The Colts have scored on 82% of their drives (14/17) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Colts have scored on 86% of their drives (6/7) in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 37%.

The Colts have run successful plays on 62% of pass attempts this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Colts have not gone three and out on any of their drives this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 22%.

Tennessee Titans Offense: Important Stats

The Titans have averaged -0.24 epa per play this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.

The Titans have faced a blitz 118 times since the 2024 season — 2nd-fewest in NFL.

The Titans have converted first downs on just 24 of 119 plays (20%) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 28%.

The Titans have a third down conversion rate of 28% this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

Indianapolis Colts Defense: Important Stats

The Colts defense has allowed a passer rating of just 0.0 on 3rd and short (3 Pass Attempts) this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 93.6.

The Colts defense has allowed a passer rating of just 29.3 on 3rd and short (30 Pass Attempts) since the 2024 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 91.1.

The Colts defense has missed 165 tackles since the 2024 season — most in NFL.

The Colts defense have allowed 8.1 yards per play when the opposing QB has scrambled since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 4.6.

Tennessee Titans Defense: Important Stats

The Titans defense allowed a Completion Pct of just 26% (15 completions/57 attempts) when they pressured the QB last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

32% of the plays ran against the Titans were in the red zone in Week 2 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Titans defense allowed 0.33 epa per play on contested throws last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.06.

The Titans defense allowed successful plays on 49% of pass attempts on contested throws last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 35%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.