Colts vs Rams Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NFL, Week 4

General interior view of SoFi Stadium, the home of Los Angeles Rams before an NFL football game between the Los Angeles Rams and the Seattle Seahawks, Sunday, Jan. 5, 2025, in Inglewood, Calif. (AP Photo/Kyusung Gong)
(AP Photo/Kyusung Gong)
  • The Rams are -3.5 point favorites vs the Colts
  • Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
  • Watch this game on FOX

The Indianapolis Colts (3-0-0) visit SoFi Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Rams (2-1-0) on Sep. 28. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Inglewood, CA.

The Rams are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).

The Colts vs. Rams Over/Under is 49.5 total points for the game.

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Colts vs. Rams Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Colts+3.5 -11049.5 -110155
Rams -3.5 -11049.5 -110-190

Colts vs. Rams Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Rams will win this game with 69.7% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Colts vs Rams Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Colts will cover the spread with 69.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Colts players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Colts Player Prop Bets Today

  • Jonathan Taylor has hit the Carries Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.50 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Jonathan Taylor has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.35 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Daniel Jones has hit the TD Passes Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+4.65 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Spencer Shrader has hit the Field Goals Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.95 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Daniel Jones has hit the Completions Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+3.85 Units / 35% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Rams players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Rams Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Puka Nacua has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.10 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Puka Nacua has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.90 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Matthew Stafford has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.10 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Blake Corum has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+3.85 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Colby Parkinson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.70 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1H Team Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games (+10.05 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have covered the 1Q Spread in 9 of their last 11 away games (+6.85 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+6.40 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.45 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 away games (+4.05 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Rams have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 22 games (+9.20 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Rams have covered the 2Q Spread in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.35 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Rams have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games (+8.08 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Rams have covered the Spread in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.35 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Rams have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 19 games (+2.16 Units / 9% ROI)

Colts Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Colts are 3-0 (+3 Units / 90.91% ROI).

  • Colts are 3-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.05 Units / 64.89% ROI
  • Colts are 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
  • Colts are 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / ROI

Rams Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Rams are 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 26.87% ROI).

  • Rams are 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 19.8% ROI
  • Rams are 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
  • Rams are 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI

Indianapolis Colts: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Rams

The Colts have scored on 77% of their drives (20/26) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

The Colts have scored on 82% of their drives (9/11) in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 37%.

The Colts have scored on 73% of their drives (11/15) in the 1st half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Colts have run successful plays on 61% of pass attempts this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

Los Angeles Rams: Keys to the Game vs. the Indianapolis Colts

The Rams have converted first downs on 5 of 11 plays (46%) on 3rd and long this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 23%.

The Rams have not converted a late down on 160 plays (0%) with over 10 yards to go since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 3%.

The Rams have run successful plays on 71% of pass attempts against a light rush since the 2024 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Rams have targeted RBs 10% of the time (63 Pass Attempts/655 plays) since the 2024 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

Additional Matchup Notes for Indianapolis Colts vs. Los Angeles Rams

The Rams have converted first downs on 5 of 11 plays (46%) on 3rd and long this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 23%.

The Rams have not converted a late down on 160 plays (0%) with over 10 yards to go since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 3%.

The Rams have run successful plays on 71% of pass attempts against a light rush since the 2024 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Rams have targeted RBs 10% of the time (63 Pass Attempts/655 plays) since the 2024 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

The Colts have scored on 77% of their drives (20/26) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

The Colts have scored on 82% of their drives (9/11) in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 37%.

The Colts have scored on 73% of their drives (11/15) in the 1st half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Colts have run successful plays on 61% of pass attempts this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

Indianapolis Colts Offense: Important Stats

The Colts have scored on 77% of their drives (20/26) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

The Colts have scored on 82% of their drives (9/11) in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 37%.

The Colts have scored on 73% of their drives (11/15) in the 1st half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Colts have run successful plays on 61% of pass attempts this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

Los Angeles Rams Offense: Important Stats

The Rams have converted first downs on 5 of 11 plays (46%) on 3rd and long this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 23%.

The Rams have not converted a late down on 160 plays (0%) with over 10 yards to go since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 3%.

The Rams have run successful plays on 71% of pass attempts against a light rush since the 2024 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Rams have targeted RBs 10% of the time (63 Pass Attempts/655 plays) since the 2024 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

Indianapolis Colts Defense: Important Stats

The Colts have scored on 77% of their drives (20/26) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

The Colts have scored on 82% of their drives (9/11) in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 37%.

The Colts have scored on 73% of their drives (11/15) in the 1st half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Colts have run successful plays on 61% of pass attempts this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

Los Angeles Rams Defense: Important Stats

The Rams have converted first downs on 5 of 11 plays (46%) on 3rd and long this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 23%.

The Rams have not converted a late down on 160 plays (0%) with over 10 yards to go since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 3%.

The Rams have run successful plays on 71% of pass attempts against a light rush since the 2024 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Rams have targeted RBs 10% of the time (63 Pass Attempts/655 plays) since the 2024 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.