Colts vs Chiefs Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 12

• The Chiefs are -3.5 point favorites vs the Colts
• Total (Over/Under): 50.5 points
• Watch this game on CBS

The Indianapolis Colts (8-2-0) visit GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (5-5-0) on Nov. 23. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Kansas City, MO.

The Chiefs are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-102).

The Colts vs. Chiefs Over/Under is 50.5 total points for the game.

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Colts vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Colts vs. Chiefs Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this game with 61.7% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Colts vs Chiefs Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Colts will cover the spread with 55.3% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Colts players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Colts Player Prop Bets Today

• Alec Pierce has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.75 Units / 58% ROI)
• Alec Pierce has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 86% ROI)
• Michael Pittman has hit the Receptions Over in his last 7 away games (+7.35 Units / 94% ROI)
• Daniel Jones has hit the Passing Yards Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.70 Units / 49% ROI)
• Jonathan Taylor has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.35 Units / 29% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Chiefs Player Prop Best Bets Today

• Xavier Worthy has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.90 Units / 33% ROI)
• Kareem Hunt has hit the Receptions Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+6.30 Units / 25% ROI)
• Patrick Mahomes has hit the Interceptions Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+5.15 Units / 40% ROI)
• Brashard Smith has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.05 Units / 93% ROI)
• Brashard Smith has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 86% ROI)

Colts Best Bets:

• The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.50 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1H Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.90 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.70 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+5.80 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.50 Units / 30% ROI)

Chiefs Best Bets:

• The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+8.05 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+8.00 Units / 39% ROI)
• The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+7.20 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 2Q Spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.85 Units / 50% ROI)
• The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 4Q Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.60 Units / 25% ROI)

Colts Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Colts are 6-4 (+1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI).

• Colts are 8-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.6 Units / 18.24% ROI
• Colts are 6-4 when betting the Over for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI
• Colts are 4-6 when betting the Under for -2.6 Units / ROI

Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs are 5-5 (-0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI).

• Chiefs are 5-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.85 Units / -10.5% ROI
• Chiefs are 3-7 when betting the Over for -4.7 Units / -42.73% ROI
• Chiefs are 7-3 when betting the Under for +3.7 Units / 33.64% ROI

Indianapolis Colts: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs

The Colts have run successful plays on 54% of plays on motion plays this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Colts have rushed for 22 TDs this season — most in NFL.

The Colts have averaged 6.8 yards per play this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.7.

The Colts have scored on 58% of their drives (57/99) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Indianapolis Colts

The Chiefs have averaged -0.99 epa per play on contested throws this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.07.

The Chiefs have averaged just 2.1 yards per play on contested throws this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.5.

The Chiefs ran successful plays on 57% of rush attempts in Week 11 — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Chiefs have averaged -0.41 epa per play on contested throws since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.07.

Additional Matchup Notes for Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have averaged -0.99 epa per play on contested throws this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.07.

The Chiefs have averaged just 2.1 yards per play on contested throws this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.5.

The Chiefs ran successful plays on 57% of rush attempts in Week 11 — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Chiefs have averaged -0.41 epa per play on contested throws since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.07.

The Colts have run successful plays on 54% of plays on motion plays this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Colts have rushed for 22 TDs this season — most in NFL.

The Colts have averaged 6.8 yards per play this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.7.

The Colts have scored on 58% of their drives (57/99) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

Indianapolis Colts Offense: Important Stats

The Colts have run successful plays on 54% of plays on motion plays this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Colts have rushed for 22 TDs this season — most in NFL.

The Colts have averaged 6.8 yards per play this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.7.

The Colts have scored on 58% of their drives (57/99) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats

The Chiefs have averaged -0.99 epa per play on contested throws this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.07.

The Chiefs have averaged just 2.1 yards per play on contested throws this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.5.

The Chiefs ran successful plays on 57% of rush attempts in Week 11 — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Chiefs have averaged -0.41 epa per play on contested throws since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.07.

Indianapolis Colts Defense: Important Stats

The Colts have run successful plays on 54% of plays on motion plays this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Colts have rushed for 22 TDs this season — most in NFL.

The Colts have averaged 6.8 yards per play this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.7.

The Colts have scored on 58% of their drives (57/99) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats

The Chiefs have averaged -0.99 epa per play on contested throws this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.07.

The Chiefs have averaged just 2.1 yards per play on contested throws this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.5.

The Chiefs ran successful plays on 57% of rush attempts in Week 11 — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Chiefs have averaged -0.41 epa per play on contested throws since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.07.

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More NFL Betting Predictions:

• Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
• Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
• Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
• Passing Yards Prop Predictions
• Receptions Made Prop Predictions
• Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
• Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
• QB Interception Prop Predictions
• Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
• NFL Betting Previews: Every Game

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