Colts vs Bengals Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NFL Preseason, Week 3

Bengals player in an orange and black uniform is pointing.
(AP Photo/Jeff Dean)
  • The Bengals are -2.5 point favorites vs the Colts
  • Total (Over/Under): 36.5 points
  • Watch this game on Broadcast Channel

The Indianapolis Colts (0-2-0) visit Paycor Stadium to take on the Cincinnati Bengals (1-1-0) on Aug. 23. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.

The Bengals are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-115).

The Colts vs. Bengals Over/Under is 36.5 total points for the game.

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Colts vs. Bengals Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Colts+2.5 -10536.5 -110+120
Bengals -2.5 -11536.5 -110-145

Colts vs. Bengals Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Bengals will win this game with 75.6% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Colts vs Bengals Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Colts will cover the spread with 66.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Colts players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Colts Player Prop Bets Today

  • Jonathan Taylor has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 88% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bengals players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Bengals Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Noah Fant has hit the Receptions Over in his last 10 games (+10.75 Units / 83% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.15 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 8 away games (+6.10 Units / 61% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.95 Units / 62% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1H Team Total Over in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.85 Units / 59% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games (+5.00 Units / 56% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 14 games (+9.10 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.05 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.45 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have covered the 1H Spread in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.20 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the Moneyline in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 40% ROI)

Indianapolis Colts: Keys to the Game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals

The Colts were winless (0-4) vs top 10 offenses last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .318.

The Colts were 7-3 (.700) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season — 9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .571.

The Colts were 4-5 (.444) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times last season — 8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .249.

The Colts were 2-6 (.250) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season — T-9th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .405.

Cincinnati Bengals: Keys to the Game vs. the Indianapolis Colts

The Bengals were 3-1 (.750) when rushing for 120 or more yards last season — 8th-best in NFL. The Commanders allowed an average of 138.0 rushing yards per game last season — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Bengals were winless (0-5) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .152.

The Bengals were winless (0-4) vs top 10 offenses last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .318.

The Bengals were 6-2 (.750) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season — T-8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .601.

Additional Matchup Notes for Indianapolis Colts vs. Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals were successful on just 36.4% of rush attempts on play action passes last season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Commanders allowed a success rate of just 40.0% on rush attempts on play action passes last season — T-4th-best in NFL.

The Bengals ran 23.5% offensive plays in the red zone in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL. The Commanders allowed their opponent to run 19.1% of plays in the red zone in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Bengals were 3-1 (.750) when rushing for 120 or more yards last season — 8th-best in NFL. The Commanders allowed an average of 138.0 rushing yards per game last season — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Colts averaged just -0.21 epa per play on play action passes in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Packers allowed just -0.40 epa per play on play action passes in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL.

The Colts turned the ball over 28 times last season — T-3rd-most in NFL. The Packers forced 30 turnovers last season — T-2nd-most in NFL.

The Colts scored on 22.2% of their drives in the second half in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Packers defense allowed scores on 23.1% of opponent drives in the second half in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 4th-best in NFL.

Indianapolis Colts Offense: Important Stats

The Colts ran successful plays on 21% of pass attempts on passes when their QB was pressured last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 32%.

The Colts ran the ball on 45% of plays (24 carries/53 plays) on 3rd down in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 25%.

The Colts threw 59% of their pass attempts 1 to 10 yards downfield last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 70%.

The Colts averaged -0.60 epa per play against tight coverage last season — 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.43.

Cincinnati Bengals Offense: Important Stats

The Bengals ran successful plays on 50% of pass attempts on passes when their QB was pressured last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 32%.

The Bengals threw for 43 TDs last season — most in NFL.

The Bengals averaged 289.3 passing yards per game (4,918/17) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 233.5.

The Bengals ran successful plays on 60% of pass attempts in the 3rd quarter last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

Indianapolis Colts Defense: Important Stats

The Colts defense missed 156 tackles last season — most in NFL.

The Colts defense allowed 76 broken tackles last season — 2nd-most in NFL.

The Colts defense allowed -1.03 epa per play with a stacked front in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.01.

The Colts defense allowed 0.56 epa per play open coverage last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.42.

Cincinnati Bengals Defense: Important Stats

20% of the plays ran against the Bengals were in the red zone in the 1st quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 12%.

The Bengals defense allowed successful plays on 52% of plays in the 1st quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Bengals defense has allowed an average of 1.6 yards after contact per carry (914 carries) since the 2023 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 1.9.

The Bengals defense allowed successful plays on 48% of plays on motion plays last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.