Chiefs vs. Texans: NFL Week 14 Odds, Prediction

Kansas City tries to avoid a second straight defeat against the surging Texans on SNF. 

The Chiefs fell 31-28 to the Cowboys in Week 13, dropping to 6-6 on the season. In good news for Kansas City, the team has won five straight at home. 

Houston enters Sunday’s game riding a four-game winning streak. Since Houston’s Week 6 bye, the team is 5-2 SU and suddenly sits only a game out of the AFC South lead. 

Bet on Chiefs vs. Texans and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds. 

Chiefs vs. Texans: NFL Week 14 Odds

Chiefs vs. Texans Prediction

Based on Houston’s passing defensive struggles against good offenses and their rest disadvantage, my Chiefs vs Texans prediction is the Chiefs Spread (-3.5, -115). 

Handicapping this contest is brutally difficult as it puts strength against strength. 

Houston leads the league in pass defense DVOA. Kansas City ranks sixth in the corresponding defensive category, per ftnfantasy.com. 

The Texans play a heavy dose of zone coverage and lead the league in EPA per dropback in zone. 

But they’re running into Patrick Mahomes, who leads the league in EPA per dropback against zone. 

This season, Houston has struggled in games against competent passing attacks. The closest approximation to Mahomes is Sam Darnold, who led Seattle to 27 points against Houston. 

Plus, Kansas City has bossed Houston of late. 

When these teams played last January, Kansas City closed as a nine-point favorite at home. Not much has changed about these teams, except for the fact that Kansas City can’t win close games. 

Are the Chiefs really 5.5 points worse than last January? I personally say no. Additionally, Houston goes from getting a favorable matchup advantage to a disadvantage. 

Houston played on Sunday with extra rest against a Colts team off overtime. Now they play a team with a rest advantage off a narrow loss. 

For all of Kansas City’s flaws this year, they’ve shown an ability to bounce back at home. Earlier this season, the Chiefs earned a 13-point win over Detroit off a primetime loss. 

Lastly, although Houston won 20-16 in Indianapolis, the score could have easily flipped. Early in the first quarter, the Colts turned the ball over at the Houston nine-yard line. 

If the result changes, it likely means a different spread for this game. While I worry the line has come down from Chiefs -4.5 at open, I predict Kansas City covers the number. 

Betting Chiefs vs. Texans: NFL Public Betting

Check back later in the week for Chiefs vs Texans public betting data.