- The Chiefs are an 8.5-point home favorite against the Texans.
- Kansas City is 8-0 SU at home this year, including a 27-19 win over Houston.
- My Chiefs vs. Texans prediction focuses on the pregame total.
Seeking a ninth straight win at home, the well-rested Chiefs greet the Texans in the divisional round.Â
Kansas City hasn’t played a meaningful game in quite some time. After clinching the top seed with a win over the Steelers in Week 17, top Chiefs have enjoyed two weeks of rest.Â
Houston captured a 32-12 win as home underdogs against the Chargers in the wild-card round. Now, they’ll look to topple a Kansas City side that beat Houston 27-19 in Week 16.Â
Bet on Chiefs vs. Texans and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.Â
NFL Divisional Round Odds: Chiefs vs. Texans
Chiefs vs. Texans Prediction
Based on the extensive rest for Kansas City and Houston’s penchant for unders north of a key number, my Chiefs vs. Texans prediction is Under 42.5 Points (-110).Â
There’s a very narrow margin for taking this number given the past performances of Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans.Â
Ryans, in his career, is 20-5-1 to the under when the pregame total closes north of 42 points. When it closes at 41.5 or shorter, Ryans is 8-1 to the OVER.Â
Although the Texans scored 32 on Saturday, the game included a number of unlikely scores.Â
Houston scored nine points off an interception return for a touchdown and a blocked extra point off an 86-yard touchdown pass from Justin Herbert.Â
That should normalize week-over-week, especially for Houston’s offense. Although they mustered 351 in the last meeting, it came with both teams playing on short rest.Â
Against a rested Chiefs defense that ranks 12th in defensive DVOA, bettors should expect a lackluster effort from the Houston offense.Â
At the same time, Kansas City has historically proved a profitable under team at home under Patrick Mahomes.Â
Over the last three seasons, the Chiefs are 20-7 to the under at home when they’re listed as a home favorite, including 7-1 when the total closes under 43.5 points.Â
Lastly, dating back to the 2021 postseason, unders are 16-6 when the home team’s spread falls between -9.5 and -3.5, including 3-0 when the Chiefs are the hosts.Â
As a result, grab the under right now at 42.5 points. However, if the total falls below 42 points, it would become a pass based on Ryans’s historical record.Â
Betting Chiefs vs. Texans: NFL Public Betting
| Bets% (ATS) | Money% (ATS) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans | 50% | 43% | 62% | 25% |
| Chiefs | 50% | 57% | 38% | 75% |
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