Chiefs vs. Ravens: NFL Week 4 Odds, Prediction

Two teams off primetime matchups meet in Kansas City as the Chiefs host the Ravens. 

Kansas City avoided an 0-3 start with a road win over the Giants on Sunday Night Football. Now, Patrick Mahomes earns a chance to cover his 13th game in 16 tries as an underdog. 

The Ravens face a short turnaround for Sunday’s crucial AFC matchup. Baltimore lost 38-30 as 4.5-point home favorites to the Lions on Monday Night Football, dropping to 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS. 

Bet on Chiefs vs. Ravens and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds. 

Chiefs vs. Ravens: NFL Week 4 Odds

Chiefs vs. Ravens Prediction

Tuesday, September 23

Depending on the injury news for Sunday’s game, I’ll also consider the game total Under 48.5 Points (-110). 

The Ravens played a barnburner on MNF against the Lions. A 38-30 game easily cleared the pregame total (54) with Baltimore now sitting in a buy-low spot defensively. 

If Kansas City fails to return Xavier Worthy, it presents a problem for the offense. Through three games, the Chiefs rank 11th in offensive DVOA. 

But the Ravens defense has to return Nnamdi Madubuike and Kyle Van Noy for me to trust the defense on short rest. 

Kansas City’s defense struggled against the Chargers in Brazil, allowing 27 points. Through three games, Baltimore ranks five spots ahead of the Chargers in offensive DVOA. 

Quietly, Baltimore has struggled to run the ball. The Ravens rank 21st in rush offense DVOA and 19th in rushing success rate. 

That could come into play against a Chiefs defense that performs worse against the run (22nd vs. 16th in pass DVOA). 

Plus, Chiefs home games are 64% to the under with Patrick Mahomes starting (35-20-1), including 19-7 over the last 26. 

Sunday, September 21

If Xavier Worthy misses a third straight game for the Chiefs against Baltimore, my Chiefs vs Ravens prediction will center around the Chiefs 1H Team Total. 

Assuming Ravens vs Lions lives up to the pregame total, this could present a buy-low spot on the Ravens defense. 

Kansas City blitzed Baltimore for 27 in Week 1 last year. However, both touchdowns were run through Worthy, whose absence has clearly impacted Kansas City’s offense. 

Garbage time scores helped Kansas City reach 21 against the Chargers. Then, against an admittedly strong Eagles defense, the Chiefs managed only 17 points. 

The common thread in both games? Kansas City struggled to score points early. 

Mahomes led Kansas City to only six first-half points against the Chargers. Against the Eagles, Kansas City managed only 10 first-half points. 

In Week 1, Baltimore suffocated the Bills offense early. Zach Orr’s defense surrendered only 13 first-half points to the Bills, who proved a markedly better offense than Kansas City last year. 

Buffalo ranked second in offensive DVOA for 2024 while the Chiefs ranked seventh, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Of course, that outlook could change on a dime if Worthy returns to the lineup. Accordingly, I’ll wait for injury reports before a final prediction for Sunday’s marquee showcase. 

Betting Chiefs vs. Ravens: NFL Public Betting