- The Chiefs are a 3.5-point home favorite against the Colts.
- The Chiefs have won 17 of their last 18 home games.
- My Chiefs vs Colts prediction is for the Colts (+3.5) to cover the spread.
The Chiefs go for a fifth straight home win on Sunday against the surging Colts.Â
Kansas City dropped to 5-5 on the season with a 22-19 loss at Denver on Sunday. It leaves Kansas City outside of the current NFL Playoff Picture, four wins adrift of the division lead.Â
Indianapolis took a bye in Week 10 after a win over the Falcons in Germany. Shane Steichen’s team sits at 8-2 through 10 games, good for the third seed in the AFC.Â
Bet on Chiefs vs. Colts and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.Â
Chiefs vs. Colts: NFL Week 12 Odds
Chiefs vs. Colts Prediction
Based on the Colts’ rushing prowess and the Chiefs’ inability to limit good rushing attacks, my Chiefs vs Colts prediction is the Colts Spread (+3.5, -120).Â
Surely the Chiefs can’t lose three in a row….right?Â
For Kansas City to avoid that disaster, Steve Spagnuolo needs to produce a masterclass against NFL Offensive Player of the Year favorite Jonathan Taylor.Â
Indy’s shortcomings this year have come when they can’t run the ball. In both losses, the Colts rushed for under 100 yards as a team.Â
Kansas City has looked okay against the run – 13th in rush defense DVOA – but has struggled against good rushing attacks.Â
Buffalo, the only team behind Indianapolis in rush offense DVOA, notched 141 yards on the ground. James Cook accounted for 114 of those yards.Â
The Ravens and Jaguars – both ninth or better in rush offense DVOA – accumulated over 100 yards against the Chiefs on the ground.Â
All that said, I’m slightly concerned about the Colts defense in this game.Â
While acknowledging the trade acquisitions, Indy is primed for negative regression defensively. The defense ranks 16th in DVOA, having played the second-easiest set of offenses.Â
Sunday’s game marks only the second time all year Indianapolis has played a top-five offense by DVOA. Kansas City sits third overall after Week 11.Â
Indianapolis’ lone road trip to a top-five offense resulted in a 27-20 loss at the Rams. However, that included an 88-yard Rams touchdown and A.D. Mitchell (literally) dropping the ball.Â
That line closed Rams -3 against Indy. Right now, I’m not sure the Chiefs are a half-point better than the current version of LA.Â
As a result, I predict the Colts cover the spread off a Week 11 bye.Â
Betting Chiefs vs. Colts: NFL Public Betting
| Team | % of ATS Bets | % of ATS Money |
|---|---|---|
| Colts (+3.5) | 51% | 33% |
| Chiefs (-3.5) | 49% | 67% |
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