Chiefs vs Titans Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 16

BetMGM Betting Dec 19, 2025, 6:00 PM

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A stadium view of Tennessee Titans' Nissan Field as fans begin to arrive before an NFL football game against the ,Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday, Dec. 11, 2022, in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/Peter Joneleit)

(AP Photo/Peter Joneleit)

The Chiefs are -3.5 point favorites vs the Titans
Total (Over/Under): 37.5 points
Watch this game on CBS

The Kansas City Chiefs (6-8-0) visit Nissan Stadium to take on the Tennessee Titans (2-12-0) on Dec. 21. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Nashville, TN.

The Chiefs are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-105).

The Chiefs vs. Titans Over/Under is 37.5 total points for the game.

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Chiefs vs. Titans Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Chiefs vs. Titans Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this game with 63.1% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Chiefs vs Titans Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chiefs will cover the spread with 50.6% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Chiefs Player Prop Bets Today

Kareem Hunt has hit the Receptions Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.05 Units / 37% ROI)
Isiah Pacheco has hit the Carries Under in his last 6 away games (+6.15 Units / 90% ROI)
Brashard Smith has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 6 games (+6.05 Units / 92% ROI)
Isiah Pacheco has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.40 Units / 30% ROI)
Isiah Pacheco has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.15 Units / 24% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Titans players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Titans Player Prop Best Bets Today

Chigoziem Okonkwo has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+6.65 Units / 37% ROI)
Tyjae Spears has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.60 Units / 51% ROI)
Gunnar Helm has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+6.05 Units / 70% ROI)
Elic Ayomanor has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.90 Units / 45% ROI)
Tyjae Spears has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+5.60 Units / 41% ROI)

Chiefs Best Bets:

The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+8.15 Units / 28% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 4Q Spread in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.45 Units / 34% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.30 Units / 21% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2H Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.34 Units / 10% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.75 Units / 26% ROI)

Titans Best Bets:

The Tennessee Titans have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)
The Tennessee Titans have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.35 Units / 22% ROI)
The Tennessee Titans have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 17 games (+4.04 Units / 23% ROI)
The Tennessee Titans have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+3.40 Units / 15% ROI)
The Tennessee Titans have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+2.60 Units / 28% ROI)

Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs are 5-9 (-5 Units / -32.26% ROI).

Chiefs are 6-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.65 Units / -23.9% ROI
Chiefs are 4-10 when betting the Over for -7 Units / -45.45% ROI
Chiefs are 10-4 when betting the Under for +5.6 Units / ROI

Titans Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Titans are 6-8 (-2.8 Units / -18.18% ROI).

Titans are 2-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.95 Units / -49.64% ROI
Titans are 9-5 when betting the Over for +3.5 Units / 22.73% ROI
Titans are 5-9 when betting the Under for -4.9 Units / -31.82% ROI

Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Tennessee Titans

The Titans are winless (0-10) when not forcing a fumble this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .410.

The Titans are 1-9 (.100) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .417.

The Titans are winless (0-7) at home this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .544.

The Titans are 2-12 (.143) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .459.

Tennessee Titans: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have averaged just 1.5 yards per play on contested throws this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.4.

The Chiefs have averaged -0.70 epa per play on contested throws this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.09.

The Chiefs have averaged -0.39 epa per play on contested throws since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.07.

The Chiefs have averaged just 0.6 yards per play on contested throws since Week 12 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.3.

Additional Matchup Notes for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tennessee Titans