- The Chiefs are -3.5 point favorites vs the Jaguars
- Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points
- Watch this game on ABC | ESPN | ESPN2 | ESPD
The Kansas City Chiefs (2-2-0) visit EverBank Stadium to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1-0) on Oct. 6. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in Jacksonville, FL.
The Chiefs are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-105).
The Chiefs vs. Jaguars Over/Under is 46.5 total points for the game.
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Chiefs vs. Jaguars Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Chiefs | -3.5 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -185 |
| Jaguars | +3.5 -115 | 46.5 -110 | 150 |
Chiefs vs. Jaguars Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this game with 75.8% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Chiefs vs Jaguars Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chiefs will cover the spread with 65.2% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Chiefs Player Prop Bets Today
- Isiah Pacheco has hit the Carries Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.85 Units / 58% ROI)
- Xavier Worthy has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+7.30 Units / 36% ROI)
- Patrick Mahomes has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- Patrick Mahomes has hit the Interceptions Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.05 Units / 26% ROI)
- Kareem Hunt has hit the Receptions Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+5.80 Units / 22% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Jaguars players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Jaguars Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Dyami Brown has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.65 Units / 52% ROI)
- Dyami Brown has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+6.15 Units / 59% ROI)
- Trevor Lawrence has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.75 Units / 51% ROI)
- Tim Patrick has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+5.20 Units / 46% ROI)
- Trevor Lawrence has hit the Interceptions Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.20 Units / 39% ROI)
Chiefs Best Bets:
- The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 4Q Spread in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.55 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+7.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.25 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 2Q Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+4.65 Units / 15% ROI)
Jaguars Best Bets:
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.85 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.60 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the 1Q Spread in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.35 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+2.77 Units / 25% ROI)
Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs are 2-2 (-0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Chiefs are 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.45 Units / -6.87% ROI
- Chiefs are 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Chiefs are 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / ROI
Jaguars Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Jaguars are 3-1 (+1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI).
- Jaguars are 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.45 Units / 45.37% ROI
- Jaguars are 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Jaguars are 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars
The Chiefs are 10-1 (.909) when passing for 250 or more yards since the 2024 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed 252.8 passing yards per game since the 2024 season — worst in NFL.
The Chiefs are 11-0 (1.000) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent since the 2024 season — T-best in NFL. The Jaguars has allowed an average time of possession of 32 min and 0 s since the 2024 season — 2nd-highest in NFL.
The Chiefs are 5-3 (.625) when not forcing a turnover since the 2024 season — T-2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .282.
The Chiefs are undefeated (12-0) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2024 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .744.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs
The Jaguars have run successful plays on 0% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 29%.
The Jaguars have run successful plays on 18% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 31%.
The Jaguars have converted first downs on just 6 of 16 plays (38%) on 3rd and short this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 60%.
The Jaguars have an average time of possession of 27 min and 19 s since the 2024 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 1,779.
Additional Matchup Notes for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars have run successful plays on 0% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 29%.
The Jaguars have run successful plays on 18% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 31%.
The Jaguars have converted first downs on just 6 of 16 plays (38%) on 3rd and short this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 60%.
The Jaguars have an average time of possession of 27 min and 19 s since the 2024 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 1,779.
The Chiefs are 10-1 (.909) when passing for 250 or more yards since the 2024 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed 252.8 passing yards per game since the 2024 season — worst in NFL.
The Chiefs are 11-0 (1.000) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent since the 2024 season — T-best in NFL. The Jaguars has allowed an average time of possession of 32 min and 0 s since the 2024 season — 2nd-highest in NFL.
The Chiefs are 5-3 (.625) when not forcing a turnover since the 2024 season — T-2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .282.
The Chiefs are undefeated (12-0) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2024 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .744.
Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats
The Chiefs are 10-1 (.909) when passing for 250 or more yards since the 2024 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed 252.8 passing yards per game since the 2024 season — worst in NFL.
The Chiefs are 11-0 (1.000) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent since the 2024 season — T-best in NFL. The Jaguars has allowed an average time of possession of 32 min and 0 s since the 2024 season — 2nd-highest in NFL.
The Chiefs are 5-3 (.625) when not forcing a turnover since the 2024 season — T-2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .282.
The Chiefs are undefeated (12-0) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2024 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .744.
Jacksonville Jaguars Offense: Important Stats
The Jaguars have run successful plays on 0% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 29%.
The Jaguars have run successful plays on 18% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 31%.
The Jaguars have converted first downs on just 6 of 16 plays (38%) on 3rd and short this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 60%.
The Jaguars have an average time of possession of 27 min and 19 s since the 2024 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 1,779.
Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats
The Chiefs are 10-1 (.909) when passing for 250 or more yards since the 2024 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed 252.8 passing yards per game since the 2024 season — worst in NFL.
The Chiefs are 11-0 (1.000) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent since the 2024 season — T-best in NFL. The Jaguars has allowed an average time of possession of 32 min and 0 s since the 2024 season — 2nd-highest in NFL.
The Chiefs are 5-3 (.625) when not forcing a turnover since the 2024 season — T-2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .282.
The Chiefs are undefeated (12-0) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2024 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .744.
Jacksonville Jaguars Defense: Important Stats
The Jaguars have run successful plays on 0% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 29%.
The Jaguars have run successful plays on 18% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 31%.
The Jaguars have converted first downs on just 6 of 16 plays (38%) on 3rd and short this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 60%.
The Jaguars have an average time of possession of 27 min and 19 s since the 2024 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 1,779.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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