Chiefs vs Cowboys Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 13

BetMGM Betting Nov 25, 2025, 2:40 PM

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A young fan sands atop a vehicle holding a Dallas Cowboys flag outside Sofi Stadium before a preseason NFL football game between the Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Rams, Sunday, Aug. 11, 2024, in Inglewood, Calif. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)

(AP Photo/Gregory Bull)

The Chiefs are -3 point favorites vs the Cowboys
Total (Over/Under): 52 points
Watch this game on CBS | PAR+

The Kansas City Chiefs (6-5-0) visit AT&T Stadium to take on the Dallas Cowboys (5-5-1) on Nov. 27. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:30pm EST in Arlington, TX.

The Chiefs are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-115).

The Chiefs vs. Cowboys Over/Under is 52 total points for the game.

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Chiefs vs. Cowboys Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Chiefs	-3 -115	52 -110	-175
Cowboys	+3 -105	52 -110	145

Chiefs vs. Cowboys Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this game with 62.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Chiefs vs Cowboys Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chiefs will cover the spread with 50.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Cowboys Player Prop Bets Today

Javonte Williams has hit the Longest Reception Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.70 Units / 65% ROI)
Javonte Williams has hit the Longest Rush Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.60 Units / 51% ROI)
Javonte Williams has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.40 Units / 33% ROI)
George Pickens has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.25 Units / 35% ROI)
Javonte Williams has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 17 games (+5.85 Units / 31% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Cowboys players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Chiefs Player Prop Best Bets Today

Xavier Worthy has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.90 Units / 33% ROI)
Isiah Pacheco has hit the Carries Under in his last 6 away games (+6.15 Units / 95% ROI)
Kareem Hunt has hit the Receptions Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+6.15 Units / 24% ROI)
Brashard Smith has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 6 games (+6.05 Units / 92% ROI)
Patrick Mahomes has hit the TD Passes Under in 12 of his last 19 games (+5.55 Units / 25% ROI)

Cowboys Best Bets:

The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 16 of their last 19 games (+12.65 Units / 57% ROI)
The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 17 games (+10.55 Units / 54% ROI)
The Dallas Cowboys have covered the 2Q Spread in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.35 Units / 43% ROI)
The Dallas Cowboys have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.40 Units / 34% ROI)
The Dallas Cowboys have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+6.60 Units / 28% ROI)

Chiefs Best Bets:

The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 4Q Spread in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.60 Units / 34% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+6.90 Units / 22% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+6.20 Units / 18% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 13 of their last 22 games (+3.25 Units / 13% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 22 games (+2.70 Units / 6% ROI)

Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs are 5-6 (-1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI).

Chiefs are 6-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.85 Units / -6.29% ROI
Chiefs are 3-8 when betting the Over for -5.8 Units / -47.93% ROI
Chiefs are 8-3 when betting the Under for +4.7 Units / ROI

Cowboys Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Cowboys are 6-5 (+0.6 Units / 4.98% ROI).

Cowboys are 5-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.2 Units / -7.95% ROI
Cowboys are 7-4 when betting the Over for +2.6 Units / 21.49% ROI
Cowboys are 4-7 when betting the Under for -3.7 Units / -30.58% ROI

Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys have thrown the ball 69% of the time (24 Pass Attempts/35 plays) on 3rd and short this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Cowboys have run the ball on 31% of plays (11 carries/35 plays) on 3rd and short this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 55%.

The Cowboys have committed 5 turnovers in the red zone this season — most in NFL.

The Cowboys have run the ball on 14% of plays (18 carries/129 plays) on 3rd down this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 26%.

Dallas Cowboys: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have averaged -0.99 epa per play on contested throws this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.07.

The Chiefs have averaged just 2.1 yards per play on contested throws this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.5.

The Chiefs have run successful plays on 70% of rush attempts on motion plays since Week 9 — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Chiefs have run successful plays on 61% of pass attempts in the 3rd quarter this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 49%.

Additional Matchup Notes for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Dallas Cowboys