- The Chiefs are -3 point favorites vs the Chargers
- Total (Over/Under): 45.5 points
- Watch this game on YOUT | YTTV | NFL+
The Kansas City Chiefs (0-0-0) visit Neo Quimica Arena to take on the Los Angeles Chargers (0-0-0) on Sep. 5. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EDT in Sao Paulo, Brazil.
The Chiefs are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-118).
The Chiefs vs. Chargers Over/Under is 45.5 total points for the game.
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Chiefs vs. Chargers Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Chiefs | -3 -118 | 45.5 -110 | -175 |
| Chargers | +3 -102 | 45.5 -110 | +145 |
Chiefs vs. Chargers Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this game with 68.5% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Chiefs vs Chargers Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chiefs will cover the spread with 90.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Chiefs Player Prop Bets Today
- Xavier Worthy has hit the Receptions Over in his last 10 games (+10.80 Units / 87% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chargers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Chargers Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Justin Herbert has hit the Interceptions Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+8.55 Units / 40% ROI)
Chiefs Best Bets:
- The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 2Q Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.55 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.25 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.85 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+4.00 Units / 35% ROI)
Chargers Best Bets:
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 15 of their last 21 games (+7.95 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the 1H Spread in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the Spread in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2H Game Total Over in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 88% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.60 Units / 48% ROI)
Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Chiefs were 1-2 (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).
- Chiefs are 0-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.48 Units / -100% ROI
- Chiefs are 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.82 Units / 24.26% ROI
- Chiefs are 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / ROI
Chargers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Chargers were 2-2 (-0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Chargers are 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.05 Units / -40.94% ROI
- Chargers are 4-0 when betting the Over for +4 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Chargers are 0-4 when betting the Under for -4.5 Units / -100% ROI
Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers
The Chiefs were undefeated (9-0) when within 7 points at the two minute warning last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Chiefs were 6-2 (.750) when rushing less than 25 times last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .278.
The Chiefs were 5-1 (.833) when not forcing a turnover last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .292.
The Chiefs were undefeated (8-0) at home last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .524.
Los Angeles Chargers: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs
The Chargers were 4-2 (.667) when not forcing a turnover last season — T-3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .292.
The Chargers were undefeated (9-0) when rushing for more than 100 yards last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .618.
The Chargers are 1-9 (.100) when within 3 points at the two minute warning since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Chargers were undefeated (9-0) when rushing for 120 or more yards last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .646.
Additional Matchup Notes for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Chargers RBs had just 15.9 receiving yards per game last season — worst in NFL. The Chiefs averaged just 24.3 receiving yards per game allowed to RBs last season — T-5th-best in NFL.
The Chargers had a third down conversion rate of 52.2% in the second half in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 5th-best in NFL. The Chiefs defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 55.2% in the second half in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 4th-worst in NFL.
The Chiefs were successful on 48.6% of rush attempts last season — 4th-best in NFL. The Chargers allowed a success rate of 46.9% on rush attempts last season — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Chiefs rushed the ball on just 41.2% of plays from scrimmage in the red zone last season — 4th-lowest in NFL. The Chargers have allowed 5 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone last season — fewest in NFL.
The Chiefs threw the ball 10 yards or less 76.2% of pass attempts last season — highest in NFL. The Chargers allowed just 5.5 yards per dropback on pass attempts between 1 and 10 yards last season — T-2nd-best in NFL.
Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats
The Chiefs ran successful plays on 57% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Chiefs averaged just 2.2 yards per play against tight coverage last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 3.8.
The Chiefs averaged -0.64 epa per play against tight coverage last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.43.
The Chiefs have averaged just 2.2 yards per play against tight coverage since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 3.5.
Los Angeles Chargers Offense: Important Stats
The Chargers have started 45 drives inside their own 10 yard line since the 2023 season — most in NFL.
The Chargers threw the ball 19% of the time (12 Pass Attempts/63 plays) on 3rd and short last season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Chargers averaged -1.96 epa per play when their QB was scrambling in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.25.
The Chargers averaged just 17.6 offensive penalty yards per game (299/17) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 25.3.
Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats
The Chiefs defense allowed an average of 16.1 fantasy points per game to RBs last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 21.8.
The Chiefs defense allowed 93.7 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 126.8.
The Chiefs defense allowed 0.14 epa per play on contested throws last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.06.
The Chiefs defense allowed successful plays on 34% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
Los Angeles Chargers Defense: Important Stats
The Chargers defense allowed just 1.1 TDs per game (18/16) in the red zone last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 1.9.
The Chargers defense allowed 7 rushing TDs on 414 carries (59.1 Carries Per TD) last season — best Carries Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 27.9.
The Chargers defense allowed 6 TDs that were 20+ yards in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — most in NFL.
The Chargers defense allowed first downs on 32% of pass attempts on 3rd down last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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