Chiefs vs Broncos Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 11

BetMGM Betting Nov 15, 2025, 9:42 AM

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Kick off for the 2024 NFL season at Empower Field at Mile High during the Denver Broncos v Pittsburgh Steelers during an NFL football game, Sunday, Sept. 15, 2024 in Denver. (AP Photo/Bart Young)

(AP Photo/Bart Young)

The Chiefs are -4 point favorites vs the Broncos
Total (Over/Under): 44.5 points
Watch this game on CBS

The Kansas City Chiefs (5-4-0) visit Empower Field at Mile High to take on the Denver Broncos (8-2-0) on Nov. 16. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EST in Denver, CO.

The Chiefs are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -4 (-105).

The Chiefs vs. Broncos Over/Under is 44.5 total points for the game.

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Chiefs vs. Broncos Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Chiefs	-4 -105	44.5 -110	-200
Broncos	+4 -115	44.5 -110	165

Chiefs vs. Broncos Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this game with 64.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Chiefs vs Broncos Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chiefs will cover the spread with 50.6% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Chiefs Player Prop Bets Today

Xavier Worthy has hit the Receptions Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+9.30 Units / 44% ROI)
Kareem Hunt has hit the Receptions Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+6.30 Units / 25% ROI)
Xavier Worthy has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.15 Units / 27% ROI)
Patrick Mahomes has hit the Interceptions Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+4.95 Units / 20% ROI)
Kareem Hunt has hit the Carries Under in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.70 Units / 43% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Broncos players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Broncos Player Prop Best Bets Today

RJ Harvey has hit the Longest Rush Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.90 Units / 66% ROI)
Troy Franklin has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+6.50 Units / 65% ROI)
J.K. Dobbins has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.50 Units / 38% ROI)
J.K. Dobbins has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+6.35 Units / 35% ROI)
Wil Lutz has hit the Field Goals Under in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+5.65 Units / 62% ROI)

Chiefs Best Bets:

The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+6.20 Units / 17% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 4Q Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.40 Units / 24% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Moneyline in 13 of their last 22 games (+4.60 Units / 11% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+4.05 Units / 12% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+3.65 Units / 12% ROI)

Broncos Best Bets:

The Denver Broncos have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 21 games (+11.75 Units / 23% ROI)
The Denver Broncos have hit the 2H Moneyline in their last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 42% ROI)
The Denver Broncos have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+8.00 Units / 47% ROI)
The Denver Broncos have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games (+7.65 Units / 29% ROI)
The Denver Broncos have covered the 2H Spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.99 Units / 72% ROI)

Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs are 5-4 (+0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI).

Chiefs are 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.75 Units / -2.99% ROI
Chiefs are 3-6 when betting the Over for -3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI
Chiefs are 6-3 when betting the Under for +2.7 Units / ROI

Broncos Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Broncos are 4-6 (-2.5 Units / -22.94% ROI).

Broncos are 8-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.75 Units / 24.64% ROI
Broncos are 3-7 when betting the Over for -4.7 Units / -42.73% ROI
Broncos are 7-3 when betting the Under for +3.7 Units / 33.64% ROI

Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Broncos

The Broncos have run 4% of their plays in the red zone in the 1st quarter this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 13%.

The Broncos have gone three and out 5 times in the 3rd quarter since Week 7 — T-most in NFL.

The Broncos have run 31% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 3rd quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Broncos have run 41% of their plays in their opponent’s territory this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

Denver Broncos: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have averaged -1.24 epa per play on contested throws this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.05.

The Chiefs have averaged 0.46 epa per play when their QB has scrambled this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.41.

The Chiefs have averaged 15.0 yards per play against open coverage since Week 7 — best in NFL; League Avg: 9.3.

The Chiefs have averaged 11.6 yards per play against open coverage this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 9.2.

Additional Matchup Notes for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos