Chargers vs. Broncos: NFL Week 3 Odds, Prediction

The Chargers go for a third straight AFC West win on Sunday at home against the Broncos. 

Los Angeles cruised to a 20-9 win over the Raiders on Monday night. Pair that with a Week 1 win over the Chiefs in Brazil, and Jim Harbaugh’s team is suddenly favored in the AFC West odds. 

Denver lost in dramatic fashion in Week 2. A leverage penalty on a game-winning field goal try from the Colts gave Indianapolis a second chance, which was converted for a win. 

Bet on Chargers vs. Broncos and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds. 

Chargers vs. Broncos: NFL Week 3 Odds

Chargers vs. Broncos Prediction

Based on the rest advantage for the Broncos and the buy-low, sell-high spot for the game, my Chargers vs Broncos prediction is the Broncos Spread (+2.5, -110). 

I’m officially scared to step in front of the Chargers. The defense looks like a top-tier unit in the league, so I’m going to wait this game out and see if a better number pops. 

That said, evidence points to buying low on the Broncos. 

The Chargers play on short rest following a trip to Vegas for MNF. However, it could be mitigated by the fact Denver also played on the road in Week 2. 

Historically, short dogs have struggled in that spot:

• 2.5-point favorites off MNF, opponent played Sunday: 1-4 ATS
• 3-point favorites off MNF, opponent played Sunday: 7-20 ATS

Additionally, history tells us to fade big line moves on favorites. Since 2004, road dogs that made the postseason are 45-20-1 ATS, assuming three factors:

• The spread change from open to close is +1 or +1.5
• The dog’s game number falls between 2-12
• The spread falls between +2.5 and +7. 

When those dogs sit between +2.5 and +3: 17-5 ATS. 

For the Broncos to cover, though, it ultimately comes down to the offense. Through two games, the best way to describe this unit is inconsistent. 

Per Action Network, Justin Herbert is 34-10-2 ATS when his defense allows 24 or fewer points. When the opposite occurs, he drops to 15-27 ATS. 

Right now, the Broncos offense fails to meet the eye test. Accordingly, I struggle to trust them as road underdogs, even against a defense that might lose Khalil Mack. 

Trends say Broncos, but I’ll wait and see if a better number pops later in the week. 

Betting Chargers vs. Broncos: NFL Public Betting