Jacksonville JaguarsLos Angeles Chargers

Chargers vs Jaguars Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 11

BetMGM Betting Nov 15, 2025, 9:42 AM

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Footballs are viewed on the field before an NFL football game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Tennessee Titans, Sunday, Dec. 29, 2024, in Jacksonville, Fla. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)

(AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)

The Chargers are -3 point favorites vs the Jaguars
Total (Over/Under): 43.5 points
Watch this game on CBS

The Los Angeles Chargers (7-3-0) visit EverBank Stadium to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4-0) on Nov. 16. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Jacksonville, FL.

The Chargers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-105).

The Chargers vs. Jaguars Over/Under is 43.5 total points for the game.

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Chargers vs. Jaguars Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Chargers	-3 -105	43.5 -110	-150
Jaguars	+3 -115	43.5 -110	125

Chargers vs. Jaguars Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Chargers will win this game with 58.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Chargers vs Jaguars Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Jaguars will cover the spread with 54.3% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chargers players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Chargers Player Prop Bets Today

Will Dissly has hit the Receptions Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+5.95 Units / 38% ROI)
Justin Herbert has hit the Longest Rush Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.70 Units / 47% ROI)
Ladd McConkey has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.05 Units / 24% ROI)
Cameron Dicker has hit the Field Goals Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+5.05 Units / 18% ROI)
Oronde Gadsden II has hit the Longest Reception Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.85 Units / 54% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Jaguars players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Jaguars Player Prop Best Bets Today

Trevor Lawrence has hit the TD Passes Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.35 Units / 34% ROI)
Tim Patrick has hit the Receptions Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+4.20 Units / 57% ROI)
Parker Washington has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+4.00 Units / 36% ROI)
Dyami Brown has hit the Longest Reception Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.85 Units / 57% ROI)
Tim Patrick has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+3.80 Units / 55% ROI)

Chargers Best Bets:

The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games (+7.85 Units / 34% ROI)
The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.43 Units / 30% ROI)
The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 away games (+4.19 Units / 31% ROI)
The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 away games (+3.95 Units / 26% ROI)
The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the 2Q Spread in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.70 Units / 27% ROI)

Jaguars Best Bets:

The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+3.00 Units / 30% ROI)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.45 Units / 22% ROI)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.70 Units / 18% ROI)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the 1Q Spread in 11 of their last 19 games (+1.55 Units / 6% ROI)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.50 Units / 16% ROI)

Chargers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chargers are 5-5 (-0.5 Units / -4.5% ROI).

Chargers are 7-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.6 Units / 7.6% ROI
Chargers are 5-5 when betting the Over for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI
Chargers are 5-5 when betting the Under for -0.5 Units / ROI

Jaguars Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Jaguars are 4-5 (-1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI).

Jaguars are 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.9 Units / 17.43% ROI
Jaguars are 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI
Jaguars are 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI

Los Angeles Chargers: Keys to the Game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have turned the ball over on downs 4 times in the red zone this season — T-2nd-most in NFL.

The Jaguars have averaged 35.6 offensive penalty yards per game (285/8) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 24.5.

The Jaguars have run successful plays on 43% of plays on first read passes this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 53%.

The Jaguars have averaged 0.01 epa per play on first read passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.23.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers have a third down conversion rate of 55% in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 35%.

The Chargers have a third down conversion rate of 55% in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 38%.

The Chargers started 4 drives inside opposing territory in Week 10 — T-2nd-most in NFL.

The Chargers have converted first downs on 68 of 143 plays (48%) on 3rd down this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

Additional Matchup Notes for Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars