Chargers vs Cowboys Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 16

BetMGM Betting Dec 19, 2025, 6:00 PM

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A young fan sands atop a vehicle holding a Dallas Cowboys flag outside Sofi Stadium before a preseason NFL football game between the Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Rams, Sunday, Aug. 11, 2024, in Inglewood, Calif. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)

(AP Photo/Gregory Bull)

The Cowboys are -2.5 point favorites vs the Chargers
Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
Watch this game on FOX

The Los Angeles Chargers (10-4-0) visit AT&T Stadium to take on the Dallas Cowboys (6-7-1) on Dec. 21. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Arlington, TX.

The Cowboys are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).

The Chargers vs. Cowboys Over/Under is 49.5 total points for the game.

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Chargers vs. Cowboys Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Chargers vs. Cowboys Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Cowboys will win this game with 54.1% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Chargers vs Cowboys Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chargers will cover the spread with 52.3% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chargers players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Chargers Player Prop Bets Today

Justin Herbert has hit the Interceptions Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+7.10 Units / 39% ROI)
Cameron Dicker has hit the Field Goals Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+6.70 Units / 25% ROI)
Oronde Gadsden II has hit the Longest Reception Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.65 Units / 47% ROI)
Ladd McConkey has hit the Longest Reception Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.50 Units / 34% ROI)
Tre Harris has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+5.45 Units / 68% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Cowboys players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Cowboys Player Prop Best Bets Today

Javonte Williams has hit the Longest Reception Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.50 Units / 54% ROI)
CeeDee Lamb has hit the Longest Reception Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.70 Units / 52% ROI)
Dak Prescott has hit the Carries Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.35 Units / 50% ROI)
Javonte Williams has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.25 Units / 32% ROI)
Javonte Williams has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.30 Units / 26% ROI)

Chargers Best Bets:

The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.20 Units / 21% ROI)
The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.18 Units / 25% ROI)
The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+3.28 Units / 12% ROI)
The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 22 games (+3.10 Units / 13% ROI)
The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.00 Units / 14% ROI)

Cowboys Best Bets:

The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 17 of their last 19 games (+14.85 Units / 67% ROI)
The Dallas Cowboys have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.50 Units / 43% ROI)
The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.20 Units / 42% ROI)
The Dallas Cowboys have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.40 Units / 32% ROI)
The Dallas Cowboys have covered the 2Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.20 Units / 32% ROI)

Chargers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chargers are 8-6 (+1.4 Units / 9.09% ROI).

Chargers are 10-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.45 Units / 14.93% ROI
Chargers are 6-8 when betting the Over for -2.8 Units / -18.18% ROI
Chargers are 8-6 when betting the Under for +1.4 Units / ROI

Cowboys Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Cowboys are 7-7 (-0.6 Units / -3.91% ROI).

Cowboys are 6-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.95 Units / -15.17% ROI
Cowboys are 10-4 when betting the Over for +5.6 Units / 36.36% ROI
Cowboys are 4-10 when betting the Under for -7 Units / -45.45% ROI

Los Angeles Chargers: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys have thrown the ball 67% of the time (32 Pass Attempts/48 plays) on 3rd and short this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Cowboys have run the ball on 33% of plays (16 carries/48 plays) on 3rd and short this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 55%.

The Cowboys have run the ball on 14% of plays (24 carries/172 plays) on 3rd down this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 26%.

The Cowboys have started 9 drives inside their own 10 yard line since Week 12 — most in NFL.

Dallas Cowboys: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers have run successful plays on 71% of pass attempts on motion plays since Week 12 — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Chargers have converted first downs on just 3 of 39 plays (8%) on plays up the middle since Week 12 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 32%.

The Chargers have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 50% of pass attempts since Week 12 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 27%.

The Chargers have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 35% of pass attempts this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 25%.

Additional Matchup Notes for Los Angeles Chargers vs. Dallas Cowboys