Bills Over Under Wins, 2025 NFL Win Totals

For the 2025 NFL season, the Bills win total sits at 11.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

The Bills reached the AFC Championship game in 2024, but couldn’t eclipse the Kansas City Chiefs. It’s the fifth straight year the Bills reached the divisional round at a minimum. 

With minimal roster turnover set to impact Buffalo this offseason, the Bills find themselves amongst the favorites in the Super Bowl odds. 

Here’s a look at the NFL odds for Buffalo’s 2025 win total and my Bills win total prediction. 

Bills Win Total Odds

The Bills’ season win total is set at 11.5 games. 

Oddsmakers rate the over as the more likely outcome. Currently, Buffalo is to win 12 or more games. 

Meanwhile, the odds for them to finish with 11 or fewer wins is . 

Here are the 2025 NFL win totals for all AFC East teams:

• Buffalo Bills: 11.5 Wins
• New England Patriots: 8.5 Wins
• Miami Dolphins: 7.5 Wins
• New York Jets: 6.5 Wins

Bills Win Total Prediction 2025

Buffalo Bills Over 11.5 Wins (-160)

Based on implied probability, the Bills are predicted to have over 11.5 wins with 65.5% confidence. My Bills win total prediction is Over 11.5 Wins (-160), based on Buffalo’s schedule composition and likely continued offensive success. 

BET: Bills Over 11.5 Wins @ -185

BET: Bills Under 11.5 Wins @ +150

While it’s a lot of juice to lay on a bet that won’t settle for a few months, all signs point to Buffalo clearing their win total for the fourth straight year. 

It’s no secret the Bills own one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL. With Josh Allen as the starting quarterback, Buffalo owns a 42-21 record at home. 

In road and neutral site contests, the Bills recorded a 34-22 record with Allen. 

Just over the last three seasons: 21-2 at home, 16-11 everywhere else. 

That comes into play in 2025, but it’s not just because the Bills receive a bonus home game. Largely, it’s because they face more difficult opposition at home. 

Only six games next year come against teams that reached the postseason the prior year. Four of those six – Baltimore, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, and Philadelphia – are in Buffalo. 

The remaining two? At Pittsburgh and Houston. If you expect improvement from the Bengals, that game also comes at home for Buffalo. 

From a metrics standpoint, Buffalo’s offense should remain a driver of success into 2025. 

The Bills finished third or better in offensive DVOA each of the last three seasons. In the last five seasons, they’ve never fallen outside the top 10, per ftnfantasy.com. 

While last year’s success came against an easy schedule – second in DVOA, 26th in opponent strength – this year’s schedule lacks intimidation. 

Of 17 games, only four come against teams which ranked 10th or better in defensive DVOA last year. 

If the defense takes a step forward – they face only four games against top-10 offenses – 12 wins feels easily achievable. 

Most Wins in Bills History

The Bills’ franchise record for most regular season wins is 13, which happened in 1990, 1991, 2020, 2022 and 2024.

In 1990 and 1991, the Bills lost in the Super Bowl and remain among the 12 NFL teams that have never won the Super Bowl.

Fewest Wins in Bills History

The Bills’ franchise record for fewest regular-season wins is one; they went 1-13 in 1971, the team’s second year in the NFL.

They also won only two games in 1976, 1984, and 1985.