- The Buccaneers are predicted to be a 5.5-point home favorite against the Falcons.
- The Buccaneers have won each of their last 10 games as favorites following a loss.
- My Buccaneers vs Falcons prediction is for the Falcons (+5.5) to cover the spread.
Tampa Bay will go for a second straight win over the Falcons to open Week 15.Â
On Sunday, the Buccaneers fell outright 24-20 as 8.5-point home favorites to the Saints. The loss dropped Tampa Bay to 7-6 with only one win over its last five games.Â
Atlanta also lost on Sunday as big home underdogs to the Seahawks. After starting the season 3-2, the Falcons are 1-7 over the last eight.Â
Bet on Buccaneers vs. Falcons and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.Â
Buccaneers vs. Falcons: NFL Week 15 Odds
Buccaneers vs. Falcons Prediction
Based on Tampa Bay’s defensive struggles against the run and a key injury along the offensive line, my Buccaneers vs Falcons prediction is the Atlanta Falcons Spread (+5.5, -115).Â
Tampa Bay won the first meeting 23-20. However, they accomplished that feat with only a single trip to the red zone.Â
Yards per play finished 5-4.6 in Atlanta’s favor. Bijan Robinson notched 124 all-purpose yards against Tampa Bay’s defense, which has posted inconsistent results against the run.Â
Essentially, Tampa’s defense is stopping teams at the line or allowing explosive plays. Excluding Week 14, the Bucs rank 29th in percentage of run plays that go for at least 11 yards.Â
The defense also ranks 31st in pass defense DVOA against running backs. Even if Drake London remains out, it opens the door for Robinson to shine once again.Â
Plus, the short week could force Tristan Wirfs to miss another game. If that happens, it’s a significant blow to the line that has protected Mayfield well.Â
Lastly, a trend to consider with Atlanta. Since 2003, divisional dogs with a win percentage between 44% and 54% are 40-14 ATS off a loss by 21 points or more.Â
Given those factors, I predict Atlanta stays within the number on Thursday.Â
Betting Buccaneers vs. Falcons: NFL Public Betting
| Team | % of ATS Bets | % of ATS Money |
|---|---|---|
| Falcons | 22% | 37% |
| Buccaneers | 78% | 63% |
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