Buccaneers vs. Commanders Prediction, Odds, Pick: NFL Week 1

Seeking their fourth straight Week 1 win and NFC South title, the Bucs begin their campaign with a home game against the Commanders. 

Expectations were low for Tampa Bay last year. However, they defied expectations by winning nine games and reaching the divisional round of the playoffs. 

Washington, meanwhile, fell from 8-8-1 to 4-13 last year. In the offseason, they replaced Ron Rivera with Dan Quinn. 

Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines and my prediction for this Week 1 game. 

Buccaneers vs. Commanders Odds, Week 1

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers Moneyline: -185
• Washington Commanders Moneyline: +150
• Game Spread: Buccaneers -3.5 (-105)
• Game Over/Under: 42.5 Points

Buccaneers vs. Commanders Prediction, Week 1

I predict the Commanders cover the spread (+3.5) in Week 1. However, this qualifies as a lean due to unknowns surrounding Jayden Daniels. 

The biggest question in this game: Can the Washington offensive line protect Daniels long enough to expose Tampa’s secondary? 

Tampa ranked 18th in PFF’s pressure grade and 24th in overall defensive grade. 

Most concerning is the corner personnel. Tampa’s best cornerback ranked 81st in PFF’s coverage grades and no player posted a better grade than 66.5. 

That should present opportunities for Terry McLaurin and Austin Ekeler, a strong pass-catching running back. 

Washington also matches a historically profitable system. 

Since 2005, road dogs between +2.5 and +6.5 that won six or fewer games the previous year are 67% ATS, assuming the total is below 50 and it’s Week 1-3. 

Dan Quinn is also historically better as an underdog. In his last stint as a head coach, he went 19-14 ATS as an underdog. 

Quinn’s arrival should also mean Washington’s defense improves year over year — they ranked 32nd in PFF’s defensive grades last year — so it’s Washington or nothing for me.