- The Texans are -2.5 point favorites vs the Buccaneers
- Total (Over/Under): 42.5 points
- Watch this game on ABC | ESPN
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0-0) visit NRG Stadium to take on the Houston Texans (0-1-0) on Sep. 15. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT in Houston, TX.
The Texans are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-115).
The Buccaneers vs. Texans Over/Under is 42.5 total points for the game.
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Buccaneers vs. Texans Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Buccaneers | ++2.5 -105 | 42.5 -110 | 120 |
| Texans | -2.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | -145 |
Buccaneers vs. Texans Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Texans will win this game with 58.3% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Buccaneers vs Texans Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Buccaneers will cover the spread with 59.5% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Buccaneers Player Prop Bets Today
- Baker Mayfield has hit the TD Passes Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.15 Units / 46% ROI)
- Bucky Irving has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.20 Units / 40% ROI)
- Cade Otton has hit the Receptions Under in his last 6 games (+6.30 Units / 83% ROI)
- Baker Mayfield has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.80 Units / 63% ROI)
- Rachaad White has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.85 Units / 60% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Texans players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Texans Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Ka’imi Fairbairn has hit the Field Goals Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.35 Units / 43% ROI)
- C.J. Stroud has hit the Carries Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+8.35 Units / 42% ROI)
- Dalton Schultz has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.45 Units / 96% ROI)
- C.J. Stroud has hit the TD Passes Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+5.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- Nick Chubb has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 59% ROI)
Buccaneers Best Bets:
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 16 games (+9.55 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+8.77 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+6.85 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 4Q Spread in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.80 Units / 45% ROI)
Texans Best Bets:
- The Houston Texans have covered the 1H Spread in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.15 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games (+6.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+6.20 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+6.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+5.85 Units / 28% ROI)
Buccaneers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Buccaneers are 1-0 (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Buccaneers are 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Buccaneers are 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
- Buccaneers are 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / ROI
Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Texans are 0-1 (-1.05 Units / -100% ROI).
- Texans are 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
- Texans are 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
- Texans are 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans
The Buccaneers were winless (0-3) when within 3 points at the two minute warning last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Buccaneers were winless (0-4) when trailing at the end of quarter 1 last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .368.
The Buccaneers were 3-2 (.600) vs top 10 offenses last season — T-6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .318.
The Buccaneers were 9-5 (.643) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season — 10th-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Texans were 5-1 (.833) when passing for 250 or more yards last season — T-6th-best in NFL. The Buccaneers allowed 243.9 passing yards per game last season — 4th-worst in NFL.
The Texans were 7-2 (.778) when not throwing an interception last season — 7th-best in NFL. The Buccaneers intercepted 7 passes last season — T-4th-fewest in NFL.
The Texans were 5-1 (.833) vs bottom 10 run offenses last season — T-9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .618.
The Texans were 5-3 (.625) when forcing 2 or more turnovers last season — 9th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .730.
Additional Matchup Notes for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Houston Texans
The Texans were successful on just 34.7% of rush attempts with motion last season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Buccaneers allowed a success rate of just 37.5% on rush attempts against motion last season — 2nd-best in NFL.
The Texans scored on 25.9% of their drives in the fourth quarter last season — T-4th-worst in NFL. The Buccaneers defense allowed scores on 24.5% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter last season — 5th-best in NFL.
The Texans scored on 29% of their drives in the second half last season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Buccaneers defense allowed scores on 29.2% of opponent drives in the second half last season — 4th-best in NFL.
The Buccaneers were successful on 71.4% of rush attempts on play action passes last season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Texans allowed a success rate of 78.6% on rush attempts on play action passes last season — 2nd-worst in NFL.
The Buccaneers threw 41 touchdown passes last season — T-2nd-most in NFL. The Texans allowed 31 passing TDs last season — 3rd-most in NFL.
The Buccaneers averaged 2.4 passing TDs per game last season — T-2nd-best in NFL. The Texans allowed 1.8 passing touchdowns per game last season– T-3rd-worst in NFL.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense: Important Stats
The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 48% of pass attempts on passes when their QB was pressured last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 32%.
The Buccaneers had a third down conversion rate of 33% on third and 10+ yards to go last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 18%.
The Buccaneers had a third down conversion rate of 60% in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 38%.
The Buccaneers had a third down conversion rate of 55% in the 2nd half last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.
Houston Texans Offense: Important Stats
The Texans averaged -1.10 epa per play against a stacked front in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.01.
The Texans averaged just -2.1 yards per play against a stacked front in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 3.9.
The Texans ran 8% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 2nd half in Week 1 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Texans ran successful plays on 37% of plays last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense: Important Stats
The Buccaneers defense blitzed on 25% of plays last season — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 15%.
The Buccaneers defense did not allow a first down on any of their opponents’ 11 rush attempts on 3rd and long last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 23%.
The Buccaneers defense allowed successful plays on 38% of rush attempts on motion plays last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Buccaneers defense allowed a passer rating of just 50.0 on contested throws (61 Pass Attempts) last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 73.8.
Houston Texans Defense: Important Stats
Only 39% of the plays ran against the Texans were in their own territory last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
The Texans defense allowed successful plays on 40% of pass attempts from their own territory last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 48%.
Only 7% of the plays ran against the Texans were in the red zone in the 1st half last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 14%.
The Texans defense allowed successful plays on 46% of pass attempts first read passes last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 52%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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