- The Buccaneers are -2.5 point favorites vs the Falcons
- Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
- Watch this game on FOX
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0-0) visit Mercedes-Benz Stadium to take on the Atlanta Falcons (0-0-0) on Sep. 7. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
The Buccaneers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).
The Buccaneers vs. Falcons Over/Under is 47.5 total points for the game.
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Buccaneers vs. Falcons Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Buccaneers | -2.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -140 |
| Falcons | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +118 |
Buccaneers vs. Falcons Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Buccaneers will win this game with 56.9% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Buccaneers vs Falcons Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Buccaneers will cover the spread with 76.3% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Buccaneers Player Prop Bets Today
- Bucky Irving has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.20 Units / 43% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Falcons players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Falcons Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Bijan Robinson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.55 Units / 56% ROI)
Buccaneers Best Bets:
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 16 games (+9.55 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+8.77 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.15 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 4Q Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.25 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+7.20 Units / 23% ROI)
Falcons Best Bets:
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+3.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2Q Moneyline in their last 3 games (+3.30 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 2Q Spread in their last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Buccaneers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Buccaneers were 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 27.44% ROI).
- Buccaneers are 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.6 Units / 50% ROI
- Buccaneers are 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.11% ROI
- Buccaneers are 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.18 Units / ROI
Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Falcons were 0-3 (-3.42 Units / -100% ROI).
- Falcons are 0-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -3 Units / -100% ROI
- Falcons are 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.95 Units / 29.23% ROI
- Falcons are 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -35.82% ROI
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons
The Buccaneers were winless (0-4) when trailing at the end of quarter 1 last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .368.
The Buccaneers were winless (0-3) when within 3 points at the two minute warning last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Buccaneers were 1-3 (.250) when passing for less than 200 yards last season — 8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .422.
The Buccaneers were 9-5 (.643) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season — 10th-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Falcons were 4-0 (1.000) when not throwing an interception last season — best in NFL. The Buccaneers intercepted 7 passes last season — T-4th-fewest in NFL.
The Falcons were undefeated (4-0) when not throwing an interception last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .619.
The Falcons were 7-3 (.700) when forcing 1 or more turnovers last season — 9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .593.
The Falcons were 5-1 (.833) when forcing at least one fumble last season — 5th-best in NFL; League Avg: .621.
Additional Matchup Notes for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons scored on 25.9% of their drives in the fourth quarter last season — T-4th-worst in NFL. The Buccaneers defense allowed scores on 24.5% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter last season — 5th-best in NFL.
The Falcons were successful on 85.7% of rush attempts on play action passes last season — best in NFL. The Buccaneers allowed a success rate of 93.3% on rush attempts on play action passes last season — worst in NFL.
Falcons WRs had 235 receptions in 17 games (13.8 per game) last season — T-4th-best in NFL. The Buccaneers allowed 24.6 receptions per game last season — worst in NFL.
The Buccaneers were successful on 49.3% of plays they ran last season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Falcons allowed a success rate of 45.7% last season — T-3rd-worst in NFL.
The Buccaneers threw 41 touchdown passes last season — T-2nd-most in NFL. The Falcons allowed 34 passing TDs last season — 2nd-most in NFL.
The Buccaneers were successful on 48.8% of plays they ran with motion last season — 4th-best in NFL. The Falcons allowed a success rate of 47.9% against motion last season — T-worst in NFL.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense: Important Stats
The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 48% of pass attempts on passes when their QB was pressured last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 32%.
The Buccaneers had a third down conversion rate of 60% in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 38%.
The Buccaneers threw for 41 TDs last season — T-2nd-most in NFL.
The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 54% of pass attempts last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
Atlanta Falcons Offense: Important Stats
The Falcons averaged -0.95 epa per play when their QB was scrambling last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.30.
The Falcons went three and out on 11% of their drives last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 21%.
The Falcons ran successful plays on 61% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Falcons ran successful plays on 86% of rush attempts on play action passes last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 53%.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense: Important Stats
The Buccaneers defense allowed successful plays on 30% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Buccaneers defense allowed successful plays on 38% of rush attempts on motion plays last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Buccaneers defense blitzed on 25% of plays last season — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 15%.
The Buccaneers defense allowed a passer rating of just 50.0 on contested throws (61 Pass Attempts) last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 73.8.
Atlanta Falcons Defense: Important Stats
The Falcons defense allowed 0.71 epa per play with a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.09.
The Falcons defense allowed 27 TD passes in the red zone last season — T-most in NFL.
The Falcons defense allowed successful plays on 72% of plays with a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
The Falcons defense allowed just 9.9 yards per completion (4,004 yards/404 completions) last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 10.9.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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